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    Please use this identifier to cite or link to this item: https://nccur.lib.nccu.edu.tw/handle/140.119/132638


    Title: 「雪玉効果」はあったのか？台湾選挙2018～2020年
    「滾雪球」效應存在嗎？台灣選舉2018-2020
    Why Did the ＂Snowballing Effect＂ Not Happen? Taiwan`s Elections Between 2018 and 2020
    Authors: 俞振華
    Yu, Eric Chen-hua
    田中研也
    Contributors: 問題と研究
    Keywords: 「雪玉効果」 ; 香港「反送中」運動 ; 絶対得票率 ; 一国二制度 ; 92コンセンサス（九二共識） 
    「滾雪球效應」 ; 香港「反送中」運動 ; 催票率 ; 一國兩制 ; 九二共識
    snowballing effect ; Hong Kong`s anti-extradition law amendment bill movement ; vote share by eligible voters ; one country, two systems ; 92 consensus
    Date: 2020-09
    Issue Date: 2020-11-17 10:55:44 (UTC+8)
    Abstract: 国民党が2018年の台湾統一地方選挙で勝利した後、多くの人々が2020年の総統選挙で「雪玉効果」のため再度政権交代が起こると予想した。意外にも実際は、現職の蔡英文総統が再選されただけでなく、立法院でも民進党は多数を維持した。本論文では様々な世論調査のデータを用いて、2018～2020年に数回行われた選挙の核心的論点に対する人々の姿勢から、2020年総統選で国民党が予期した政権交代が起きなかったのかを説明する。本論の具体的な主張は以下の通り。国民党による2018年地方選後の情勢の判断ミス、香港「反送中」運動が人々に与えた心理的プレッシャー、また両岸関係で蔡英文路線の維持を望む傾向という三つのファクターのため、国民党は2018年地方選の勢いに乗ることができなかった。まとめれば、2020年の選挙はついに2016年統一地方選挙後の政党間競争の構図から抜け出すことができなかったのである。
    國民黨在2018年台灣地方選舉獲勝後，許多人都預期2020年總統大選時，會因為「滾雪球」效應，使得台灣再度發生政黨輪替。但出人意外地，現任總統蔡英文不但再度於2020年總統大選中勝出，並帶領民進黨於立法院持續保持多數席位。本文利用不同的民意調查資料，說明2018年至2020年之間民眾對於數個選舉核心議題的態度，藉以解釋為何2020年台灣總統大選沒有發生原本國民黨所預期的政黨輪替。具體而言，本文主張：國民黨誤判2018年地方選舉後的形勢、香港「反送中」運動帶給台灣民眾心理上的壓力、及民眾在兩岸關係態度上傾向維持蔡英文路線等三項因素，使得國民黨無法在2018年地方選舉後趁勝追擊。總之，2020年台灣大選終究沒有跳脫2016年大選後政黨競爭的格局。
    After the Kuomintang (KMT) won the landslide victory in the 2018 Taiwan local elections, some pundits and commentators posited that the ＂snowballing effect＂ might have occurred and another party turnover could have happened in the upcoming 2020 presidential election. However, President Tsai not only won the re-election but also led the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) gain the majority in the Legislative Yuan (i.e., The Parliament). By utilizing survey data, this article shows public opinion toward important electoral issues and explains the dynamic of party competition between 2018 and 2020. Specifically, we argue that the absence of snowballing effect is mainly due to the following three factors-namely, the KMT`s misinterpretation of the result of the 2018 local elections, the movement against Hong Kong`s anti-extradition law amendment bill and its impact on Taiwan`s public opinion towards Cross-Strait relations, and the support of Tsai Ing-wen`s approach of maintaining the status quo between the two sides of the Taiwan Strait. In short, the result of the 2020 presidential election suggests that the KMT failed to alter the political landscape shaped by the 2016 presidential election.
    Relation: 問題と研究, 49(3), 107-144
    Data Type: article
    DOI link: https://doi.org/10.30391/ISJ.202009_49(3).0004
    DOI: 10.30391/ISJ.202009_49(3).0004
    Appears in Collections:[Mondai to Kenkyu] Journal Articles

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