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    Please use this identifier to cite or link to this item: https://nccur.lib.nccu.edu.tw/handle/140.119/132635


    Title: 蔡英文圧勝の背景と制約―正統性、内的正当性、対外的正当性のトリレンマ―
    蔡英文壓倒性勝利的背景與限制─正統性、內部正當性、對外正當性的三難困境─
    The Backgrounds and Constraints of Tsai`s Landslide Victory: No Way Out of the Continuing Trilemma of Orthodoxy, Internal and External Legitimacy
    Authors: 松村昌廣
    Masahiro Matsumura
    Contributors: 問題と研究
    Keywords: 台湾政治のトリレンマ ; 欲求．支持構造 ; 政治過程 ; 政策路線選択 
    台灣政治的三難困境 ; 希求與支持結構 ; 政治過程 ; 政策路線選擇
    Taiwanese political trilemma ; pattern of popular demand and support ; political structure ; policy line choices
    Date: 2020-09
    Issue Date: 2020-11-17 10:54:47 (UTC+8)
    Abstract: 本稿は、2020年中華民国総統選挙での蔡英文の圧勝と立法委員選挙での与党民進党の大勝が、長期安定的な民進党政権時代の到来を意味するかを考察する。そこで、比較政治学．政治システム分析の観点から、「中華民国在台湾」の事例を研究するため、「正統性、対内的正当性、対外的正当性のトリレンマ」を設定する。次に、政治構造を「トリレンマ」と半大統領制の下、有権者が総統選と立法委員選で表出した欲求．支持構造によって明らかにする。さらに、国民党の権力構造における外省人エリート層の凋落とそれが（民進党．国民党）二大政党制に及ぼすインパクトを分析する。さらに、2024年の国政選挙迄の政策路線選択と政治過程の連動を考察する。これらの分析から、両岸関係の現状維持と経済的繁栄、これらの両立し難い目標を求めて振幅する浮動票層の鞏固な欲求．支持構造と投票行動を明らかにする。最後に、浮動票層が一過性の情動的世論で決定票を投ずる構造の下での第二期蔡政権の政権運営シナリオと国民党の選択肢について考察する。
    蔡英文在2020年中華民國總統大選中以壓倒性優勢獲勝，以及民進黨在立法委員選舉中取得決定性勝利。本文分析這是否意味著長期穩定的民進黨政權時代將到來？即從比較政治學與政治系統理論的觀點，以「中華民國在台灣」為研究事例，設定了「正統性、內部正當性、對外正當性的三難困境（trilemma）」之分析架構。其次，釐清在「三難困境」與半總統制的政治結構下，選民在總統大選與立法委員選舉中所表明之希求與支持結構。第三，分析國民黨權力結構中外省菁英階層的衰弱，及其對國民黨、民進黨兩黨體系所造成的影響。第四，考察當前至2024年國政選舉前的政策路線選擇與政治進程之間可能存在的相互作用。最後，本研究探討在中間搖擺選民因一時性公眾情緒投出關鍵選票，此般長期持續性的民意結構模式從而導致追求「兩岸現狀」與「經濟繁榮」難以兩立的目標中擺盪情形下，未來蔡政府在執政運作上極有可能的方案及國民黨的選擇項目。
    Tsai Ing-wen`s landslide victory in the 2020 ROC Presidential election and the decisive DPP victory in the Legislative Yuan election beg the question of whether the results mark the advent of a long-term stable DPP government. From the perspective of political system analysis in comparative politics, the study will first form an analytical framework of the trilemma of orthodoxy, internal and external legitimacy for the case of ＂the Republic of China in Taiwan.＂ Second, given the trilemma and the semi-presidential system, the analysis will focus on the Taiwanese political power structure as manifested by the patterns of popular demand and support in national elections. Third, the study will investigate the decline of the old guards in the KMT power structure and examine its impact on the DPP-KMT two-party system. Fourth, the analysis will explore the plausible interplay of policy line choices and political process under the current popular mandate. Finally, the study will inquire into probable scenarios of Tsai`s running of government and the KMT choices under the durable pattern in which swing voters exercise the casting vote according to their transitory public sentiment, resulting in pendulum swings in search of the two irreconcilable goals: the cross-strait status quo and economic prosperity.
    Relation: 問題と研究, 49(3), 1-36
    Data Type: article
    DOI link: https://doi.org/10.30391/ISJ.202009_49(3).0001
    DOI: 10.30391/ISJ.202009_49(3).0001
    Appears in Collections:[Mondai to Kenkyu] Journal Articles

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