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    Title: 各國之貨幣政策有效性與流動性陷阱分析
    A Study of the Effectiveness of Monetary Policy and Liquidity Trap
    Authors: 莊景涪
    Chuang, Ching-Fu
    Contributors: 鄭宇庭
    莊景涪
    Chuang, Ching-Fu
    Keywords: 貨幣政策
    有效性分析
    流動性陷阱
    凱因斯貨幣理論
    卡門濾波法
    名義利率
    Monetary policy
    Kalman filter
    Liquidity Trap
    Date: 2020
    Issue Date: 2020-11-03 11:27:09 (UTC+8)
    Abstract: 英國經濟學家凱因斯(John Maynard Keynes)之著作“The General Theory of Employment, Interest, and Money” 為後世宏觀經濟學得以發展的主要思想源泉。根據凱因斯的貨幣理論,凱因斯將貨幣需求分為交易需求、預防需求與投資需求。而投資需求又與名義利率息息相關。其中,名義利率越低,人們越偏向於將金錢用於投資上,名義利率越高,人們則偏好將金錢存於銀行裡。因此,如何利用名義利率刺激投資,進而帶動國家整體經濟的發展,變成了各國央行的一重要課題。如美國央行的調息,或是安倍晉三的經濟政策,皆為貨幣政策的一種。而貨幣政策也並非時時有效,凱因斯於其著作中便提出了流動性陷阱的概念。即:一國之利率調到很低時,有可能會出現貨幣政策失效的情況。
    本研究首先依據凱因斯模型,建立一貨幣需求的函數。隨後分析其利率參數的特性,以了解各國之貨幣政策的有效性以及是否曾陷入流動性陷阱,研究結果顯示:
    1. 各國貨幣之名義利率與貨幣需求符合凱因斯的貨幣理論。
    2. 日本與美國於經濟不穩定時,貨幣政策是有效的。
    3. 各國並未於研究時間內陷入流動性陷阱。
    Reference: 一、 中文文獻
    1. 王昭偉、王春源(2011),"Kalman-Filter 方法估計匯率泡沫現象",南亞學報 31: 365-388。
    2. 王泰堯(2013),"美國量化寬鬆政策前後股價與各因子關聯性之探討-以台灣加權股價為例",成功大學企業管理學系學位論文。
    3. 王國林(2005),"關鍵外匯匯率變動對我國外匯儲備規模的影響",世界經濟與政治論壇5: 70-73。
    4. 江慈華(2015),"日本量化寬鬆政策之總體經濟效果",暨南大學經濟學系學位論文。
    5. 李沃牆、林惠娜、朱珈瑩(2016),"日本首相安倍的寬鬆貨幣政策下—台幣、日圓、韓元之關聯結構分析",商略學報 8.2: 119-134。
    6. 李培育、余明(2004),"外匯儲備、匯率波動和貨幣政策操作—台灣案例分析",金融研究 2: 79-86。
    7. 沈中華、徐千婷(2000),"權衡性貨幣回饋法則: 以台灣為例",經濟論文 28.4: 339-367。
    8. 林旭斌(2008),"卡門濾波器在匯率方向預測上的應用",暨南大學財務金融學系學位論文。
    9. 林鈺雯(2008),"小型開放經濟之貨幣政策法則—台灣的實證分析",臺北大學經濟學系學位論文。
    10. 孫德華(2010),"使用卡爾曼濾波方法實證分析中國政府的貪污變動(1990-2006)",人文社會科學研究 4.4: 47-76。
    11. 張秀伃(2016),"美國寬鬆貨幣政策與台灣 REITs 報酬關聯性分析",健行科技大學財務金融系碩士班學位論文。
    12. 張瑞娟、欉清全(2009),"貨幣政策與匯率轉嫁之探討—台灣之實證分析",應用經濟論叢 86: 37-67。
    13. 許芷雁(2006),"台灣總體貨幣金融模型與模擬貨幣政策效果分析",臺灣大學經濟學研究所學位論文。
    14. 陳旭昇、吳聰敏(2008),"台灣匯率制度初探",經濟論文叢刊 36(2) :147-182。
    15. 陳旭昇、吳聰敏(2010),"台灣貨幣政策法則之檢視",經濟論文 38.1: 33-59。
    16. 陳煜熙(2002),"緊縮性貨幣政策對實質經濟活動影響之探討—以台灣經濟為例 (1971-2001)",成功大學政治經濟研究所學位論文。
    17. 陳磊、侯鹏(2011),"量化寬鬆, 流動性溢出與新興市場通貨膨脹",財經科學 10: 48-56。
    18. 曾妙慧(2013),"台灣民眾對居家服務的貨幣價值評估:假設市場評價法的應用",台灣公共衛生雜誌 32.3: 251-263。
    19. 黃惠群(2016),"美國貨幣寬鬆政策對股價指數與匯率關係之影響",中正大學財務金融學系學位論文。
    20. 劉宜學(2011),"台灣貨幣政策, 消費者物價指數與股市之關聯性分析",國立高雄第一科技大學金融研究所學位論文。
    21. 劉偉航(2009),"名目利率與實質利率之因果關係檢定: 臺灣實證研究",臺北大學經濟學系學位論文。
    22. 劉瑞文、管中閔、陳思寬(2014),"台灣真實經濟成長率的估計:卡門過濾法之應用",應用經濟論叢 95: 1-33。
    23. 劉慶瑞、楊維中(1999),"台灣的海外投資與貨幣危機",台灣研究集刊 1: 56-66。
    24. 蔡妮娜(2004),"小型開放經濟體系匯率制度與貨幣政策效果之分析—SVAR 模型對台灣之應用",成功大學政治經濟研究所學位論文。
    25. 賴惠子(2002),"台灣地區貨幣政策信用傳遞管道之探討",經濟研究 38.1: 57-95。
    26. 戴根有(2000),"關於我國貨幣政策的理論與實踐問題",金融研究 9.1。

    二、英文文獻
    1. Asilis, C. M., P. Honohan & P. D. McNelis, (1993), "Money demand during hyperinflation and stabilization: Bolivia, 1980–1988", Economic Inquiry, 31.2: 262-273.
    2. Ball, L., (2001), "Another look at long-run money demand", Journal of Monetary Economics, 47.1: 31-44.
    3. Barro, R. J. & D. B. Gordon, (1983), "Rules, discretion and reputation in a model of monetary policy", Journal of Monetary Economics, 12.1: 101-121.
    4. Bernanke, B. S. & I. Mihov, (1998), "Measuring monetary policy", The Quarterly Journal of Economics, 113.3: 869-902.
    5. Bernanke, B. S. & M. Gertler, (1995), "Inside the black box: the credit channel of monetary policy transmission", Journal of Economic Perspectives, 9.4: 27-48.
    6. Bernanke, B. S., J. Boivin & P. Eliasz, (2005), "Measuring the effects of monetary policy: a factor-augmented vector autoregressive (FAVAR) approach", The Quarterly Journal of Economics, 120.1: 387-422.
    7. Christiano, L. J., M. Eichenbaum & C. L. Evans, (2005), "Nominal rigidities and the dynamic effects of a shock to monetary policy", Journal of Political Economy, 113.1: 1-45.
    8. Clarida, R., J. Gali & M. Gertler, (2000), "Monetary policy rules and macroeconomic stability: evidence and some theory", The Quarterly Journal of Economics, 115.1: 147-180.
    9. Clarida, R., J. Galı & M. Gertler, (1998), "Monetary policy rules in practice: some international evidence", European Economic Review, 42.6: 1033-1067.
    10. Clarida, R., J. Gali & M. Gertler, (1999), "The science of monetary policy: a new Keynesian perspective", Journal of Economic Literature, 37.4: 1661-1707.
    11. Feldstein, M. & J. H. Stock, (1996), "Measuring money growth when financial markets are changing", Journal of Monetary Economics, 37.1: 3-27.
    12. Fleming, J., C. Kirby & B. Ostdiek, (1998), "Information and volatility linkages in the stock, bond, and money markets", Journal of Financial Economics, 49.1: 111-137.
    13. Gertler, M. & S. Gilchrist, (1994), "Monetary policy, business cycles, and the behavior of small manufacturing firms", The Quarterly Journal of Economics, 109.2: 309-340.
    14. Hafer, R. W., S. E. Hein & C. J. M. Kool, (1983), "Forecasting the money multiplier: implications for money stock control and economic activity", Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Review, October 1983.
    15. Hatemi-J, A. & M. Irandoust, (2008), "The Fisher effect: a Kalman filter approach to detecting structural change", Applied Economics Letters, 15.8: 619-624.
    16. Keynes, J. M., (1937), "The general theory of employmen", The Quarterly Journal of Economics, 51.2: 209-223.
    17. LeRoy, S. F. & R. N. Waud, (1977), "Applications of the Kalman filter in short-run monetary control", International Economic Review, 195-207.
    18. Lucas, Jr, R. E. & N. L. Stokey, (1983), "Optimal fiscal and monetary policy in an economy without capital", Journal of Monetary Economics, 12.1: 55-93.
    19. Milton, F., (1995), "The role of monetary policy", Essential Readings in Economics. Palgrave, London, 215-231.
    20. Poole, W., (1970), "Optimal choice of monetary policy instruments in a simple stochastic macro model", The Quarterly Journal of Economics, 84.2: 197-216.
    21. Rotemberg, J. J. & M. Woodford, (1997), "An optimization-based econometric framework for the evaluation of monetary policy", NBER Macroeconomics Annual, 12: 297-346.
    22. Sims, C. A., (1992), "Interpreting the macroeconomic time series facts: The effects of monetary policy", European Economic Review, 36.5: 975-1000.
    23. Taylor, J. B., (1999), "A historical analysis of monetary policy rules", Monetary policy Rules, University of Chicago Press.
    24. Woodford, M., (2011), "Interest and prices: Foundations of a theory of monetary policy", Princeton University Press.
    Description: 碩士
    國立政治大學
    經營管理碩士學程(EMBA)
    105932017
    Source URI: http://thesis.lib.nccu.edu.tw/record/#G0105932017
    Data Type: thesis
    DOI: 10.6814/NCCU202001751
    Appears in Collections:[Executive Master of Business Administration] Theses

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