政大機構典藏-National Chengchi University Institutional Repository(NCCUR):Item 140.119/132081

政大機構典藏-National Chengchi University Institutional Repository(NCCUR):Item 140.119/132081

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题名:	能源市場衝擊與穩定政策效果之評估 The evaluation of the effects of the stabilization policy for energy market shocks
作者:	黃崇岳 Huang, Chong-Yue
贡献者:	賴廷緯 Lai, Ting-Wei 黃崇岳 Huang, Chong-Yue
关键词:	動態隨機一般均衡模型能源市場衝擊泰勒法則麥卡勒姆法則穩定政策 DSGE model energy market shocks Taylor’s rule McCallum’s rule stabilization policy
日期:	2020
上传时间:	2020-10-05 15:18:30 (UTC+8)
摘要:	本文透過建立一個新興凱因斯的動態隨機一般均衡模型，用以分析能源市場發生變化時，中央銀行採取穩定政策平穩經濟的效果。本文發現，若衝擊來自能源市場需求面，即要素生產力衝擊，則泰勒法則較麥卡勒姆法則具有穩定經濟的作用；若衝擊來自能源市場供給面，則泰勒法則在穩定通貨膨脹方面較為有效，而麥卡勒姆法則在穩定產出缺口方面較為有效。此外，本文亦發現依循麥卡勒姆法則制定的貨幣政策，對刺激家計單位的勞動供給以及經濟體系的均衡產出亦較為有效。 We analyze the effects of the stabilization policy for energy market shocks using a New Keynesian Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium (DSGE) model. In the case of the total factor productivity shock, which is the energy demand shock, the policy that follows Taylor’s rule is more useful than the policy that follows McCallum’s rule for stabilizing the economy. In the case of the energy supply shock, Taylor’s rule is useful for stabilizing inflation, while McCallum’s rule is useful for stabilizing output gap. Moreover, we find that McCallum’s rule drives the labor supply of the household more obviously than Taylor`s rule, and thus, McCallum’s rule is more useful for driving the output.
參考文獻:	毛慶生（2014）。總體經濟學：古典新論(一)。臺北市：雙葉書廊。 Walsh, C. E. (2017). Monetary theory and policy. MIT press. Basu, S., & Bundick, B. (2017). Uncertainty shocks in a model of effective demand. Econometrica, 85(3), 937-958. Bodenstein, M., Erceg, C. J., & Guerrieri, L. (2008). Optimal monetary policy with distinct core and headline inflation rates. Journal of Monetary Economics, 55, S18-S33. Born, B., & Pfeifer, J. (2020). The new keynesian wage phillips curve: Calvo vs. rotemberg. Macroeconomic Dynamics, 24(5), 1017-1041. Corsetti, G., Dedola, L., Jarociński, M., Maćkowiak, B., & Schmidt, S. (2019). Macroeconomic stabilization, monetary-fiscal interactions, and Europe`s monetary union. European Journal of Political Economy, 57, 22-33. Dhawan, R., & Jeske, K. (2008). Energy price shocks and the macroeconomy: the role of consumer durables. Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, 40(7), 1357-1377. Finn, M. G. (2000). Perfect competition and the effects of energy price increases on economic activity. Journal of Money, Credit and banking, 400-416. Gallmeyer, M. F., Hollifield, B., & Zin, S. E. (2005). Taylor rules, McCallum rules and the term structure of interest rates. Journal of Monetary Economics, 52(5), 921-950. Greenwood, J., Hercowitz, Z., & Huffman, G. W. (1988). Investment, capacity utilization, and the real business cycle. The American Economic Review, 402-417. Huynh, B. T. (2016). Macroeconomic effects of energy price shocks on the business cycle. Macroeconomic Dynamics, 20(3), 623-642. Jung, A. (2018). Does McCallum’s rule outperform Taylor’s rule during the financial crisis? The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, 69, 9-21. Kilian, L., & Lewis, L. T. (2011). Does the Fed respond to oil price shocks? The Economic Journal, 121(555), 1047-1072. Kilian, L. (2009). Not all oil price shocks are alike: Disentangling demand and supply shocks in the crude oil market. American Economic Review, 99(3), 1053-69. Kim, I. M., & Loungani, P. (1992). The role of energy in real business cycle models. Journal of Monetary Economics, 29(2), 173-189. Kormilitsina, A. (2011). Oil price shocks and the optimality of monetary policy. Review of Economic Dynamics, 14(1), 199-223. Leduc, S., & Sill, K. (2004). A quantitative analysis of oil-price shocks, systematic monetary policy, and economic downturns. Journal of Monetary Economics, 51(4), 781-808. McCallum, B. T. (1988, January). Robustness properties of a rule for monetary policy. In Carnegie-Rochester conference series on public policy (Vol. 29, pp. 173-203). North-Holland. Nath, R. (2016). Asset Pricing in a New Keynesian Model with Nominal Price and Wage Rigidities. Orphanides, A. (2002). Monetary-policy rules and the great inflation. American economic review, 92(2), 115-120. Plante, M. (2014). How should monetary policy respond to changes in the relative price of oil? Considering supply and demand shocks. Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, 44, 1-19. Razzak, W. A. (2003). Is the Taylor rule really different from the McCallum rule? Contemporary Economic Policy, 21(4), 445-457. Rotemberg, J. J., & Woodford, M. (1996). Imperfect competition and the effects of energy price increases on economic activity (No. w5634). National Bureau of Economic Research. Taylor, J. B. (1993, December). Discretion versus policy rules in practice. In Carnegie-Rochester conference series on public policy (Vol. 39, pp. 195-214). North-Holland.
描述:	碩士國立政治大學經濟學系 106258031
資料來源:	http://thesis.lib.nccu.edu.tw/record/#G0106258031
数据类型:	thesis
DOI:	10.6814/NCCU202001742
显示于类别:	[經濟學系] 學位論文

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