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Title:	估計脫歐公投對英國經濟的影響:來自合成控制法的證據 Estimating Brexit-effects on UK’s economic growth: A synthetic control approach
Authors:	羅曼斯 Roggmann, Matthias
Contributors:	楊子霆 Yang, Tzu-Ting 羅曼斯 Matthias Roggmann
Keywords:	英國脫歐英國歐洲聯盟合成控制法經濟增長國內生產總值 Brexit UK EU Synthetic control method Economic growth GDP
Date:	2020
Issue Date:	2020-09-02 13:21:11 (UTC+8)
Abstract:	This paper analyzes if the decision by the British electorate to leave the European Union had causal effects on the UK’s economic growth, in particular on the UK’s GDP growth rate as well as the growth rate of different economic sectors. By assuming that Brexit fulfils the conditions of a natural experiment, the synthetic control method is applied, which compares the British GDP growth with a weighted average of countries with similar GDP growth over time. Results imply that Brexit caused losses in accumulated GDP growth between 5.64% and 8.11% by the end of 2019. A decomposition into individual economic sectors could show, that this output gap is largely caused by a 21.45% loss within the financial and insurance activities. The results hold valid for several sensitivity and robustness checks and are in accordance with economic theory as well as previous empirical findings. Thereby, this paper contributes to the academic literature by quantifying post-Brexit effects for the British economy and by delivering further evidence about the disadvantages of leaving international trade agreements.
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Description:	碩士國立政治大學應用經濟與社會發展英語碩士學位學程(IMES) 107266008
Source URI:	http://thesis.lib.nccu.edu.tw/record/#G0107266008
Data Type:	thesis
DOI:	10.6814/NCCU202001491
Appears in Collections:	[International Master`s Program of Applied Economics and Social Development] Theses

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