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| Title: | 臺灣各縣市平均氣溫對其生育率的影響
The Effect of Temperature on Fertility Rate of Counties and Cities in Taiwan |
| Authors: | 李岳儒
Li, Yue-Ru |
| Contributors: | 黃智聰
Huang, Jr-Tsung
李岳儒
Li, Yue-Ru |
| Keywords: | 生育率
平均氣溫
空間自我相關
空間杜賓模型
Fertility rate
Average temperature
Spatial autocorrelation
Spatial Dubin Model |
| Date: | 2020 |
| Issue Date: | 2020-08-03 18:21:24 (UTC+8) |
| Abstract: | 臺灣目前生育率過低的問題，已對國家經濟發展、社會整體走向、家庭結構組成與個人生活方式等都產生巨大的影響。換句話說，生兒育女已不僅僅是婦女自身的問題，它更與社會動態、經濟活力、企業存續、子女教育、國家戰力來源等都有著相當緊密的關係。
本研究主要目的為，將臺灣本島重新劃分行政區域後的20個縣市，於2011至2018年間的一般生育率作為研究對象，探討年平均氣溫對生育率的影響，並試圖瞭解目前影響臺灣生育率持續下降的其他關鍵因素。為了不使各地區間的被解釋及解釋變數互動關係被忽略，本研究應用空間理論探討在空間自相關的可能性下，研究分析導致一般生育率改變的可能原因。
本研究資料經檢定後採用空間杜賓模型分析，實證結果發現：2011至2018年間，各縣市一般生育率確實存在顯著正向的空間相關性；地區內「前一年年平均溫度」、「前一年失業率」、「前一年犯罪人口比例」對於地區內當年一般生育率具有顯著的負向影響；地區內「前一年嬰兒死亡率」對地區內當年一般生育率呈顯著的正向影響；「前一年家戶可支配所得」、「前一年女性勞動參與率」與「前一年農林漁牧業比例」對於地區內當年一般生育率影響皆不顯著。
The low fertility rate in Taiwan recently has caused a huge impact on the country’s economic development, overall social trends, family structure, and personal lifestyle. In other words, childbearing is not only a problem for women themselves, but also has a very close relationship with social dynamics, economic vitality, business continuity, child education, and sources of national defense.
The main purpose of this study is to take the general fertility rate of 20 counties (cities) in Taiwan as the research object, to explore the impact of average annual temperature on fertility rate, and to try to understand other key factors that effect the current fertility rate in Taiwan. In order not to make the interactions between the independent and dependent variable neglected, this study uses spatial theory to explore the possible causes of changes in general fertility rates under the possibility of spatial autocorrelation.
The data of this study using the spatial Dubin model to analyze. The empirical results show that there is indeed a significant positive spatial correlation between the general fertility rates of each county (city) in Taiwan from 2011 to 2018. The average temperature in the previous year, the unemployment rate in the previous year and the proportion of criminal population in the previous year have a significant negative effect on the general fertility rate in the region. The infant mortality rate in the previous year has a significant positive effect on the general fertility rate. Household disposable income in the previous year, female labor force participation rate in the previous year and the ratio of agriculture, forestry, fishery and animal husbandry in the previous year” have no significant impact on the general fertility rate. |
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| Description: | 碩士
國立政治大學
行政管理碩士學程
107921208 |
| Source URI: | http://thesis.lib.nccu.edu.tw/record/#G0107921208 |
| Data Type: | thesis |
| DOI: | 10.6814/NCCU202000910 |
| Appears in Collections: | [行政管理碩士學程(MEPA)] 學位論文
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