English  |  正體中文  |  简体中文  |  Post-Print筆數 : 27 |  Items with full text/Total items : 113311/144292 (79%)
Visitors : 50925784      Online Users : 943
RC Version 6.0 © Powered By DSPACE, MIT. Enhanced by NTU Library IR team.
Scope Tips:
  • please add "double quotation mark" for query phrases to get precise results
  • please goto advance search for comprehansive author search
  • Adv. Search
    HomeLoginUploadHelpAboutAdminister Goto mobile version
    Please use this identifier to cite or link to this item: https://nccur.lib.nccu.edu.tw/handle/140.119/131214


    Title: 全球經濟政策不確定性對台灣上市櫃公司投資之影響
    The Impact of Global Economic Policy Uncertainty on Investment of Taiwan`s Listed Companies
    Authors: 周依琳
    Chou, Yi-Lin
    Contributors: 陳心蘋
    Chen, Hsin-Ping
    周依琳
    Chou, Yi-Lin
    Keywords: 經濟政策不確定性
    投資決策
    固定資產投資
    Date: 2020
    Issue Date: 2020-08-03 18:18:29 (UTC+8)
    Abstract: 本研究以2006年到2018年台灣全體上市櫃公司,排除金融產業、臺灣存託憑證以外的公司為研究對象,並以「全球經濟政策不確定性指數(Global Economic Policy Uncertainty Index)」作為衡量指標,探討全球經濟政策不確定性對台灣上市櫃公司固定資產投資率之影響。除全球經濟政策不確定性之外,研究中亦納入其他可能對公司投資具影響力之變數,以期實證分析能對公司投資行為有較高的預測解釋力。本研究中,建立包含全時期、不確定性高低時期與個別產業之模型,進而觀察全球經濟政策不確定性之影響在市場不確定性較高的時期與個別產業之間是否具有顯著差異。
    實證結果顯示,全球經濟政策不確定性對公司固定資產投資率具顯著負向影響力,財務槓桿、成長機會、產出成長率、產業集中度、公司規模則對公司固定資產投資率具顯著正向影響力;在不確定性高、投資信心低迷的金融海嘯時期,僅剩財務槓桿及公司規模仍具顯著正向影響力;產業方面,全球經濟不確定性對水泥工業、油電燃氣業與觀光事業之固定資產投資率具顯著正向影響力,但對創造台灣最大經濟產值之電子工業則具顯著負向影響力。
    Reference: 中文部分
    王紅建、李青原與邢斐(2014),「經濟政策不確定性,現金持有水準及其市場價值」,《金融研究》,9,53-68。
    朱堂誌(2016),「台灣上市櫃公司企業特質與TobinQ之關聯:以分量迴歸方式探討」,中興大學高階經理人碩士在職專班學位論文,1-24。
    李豆(2017),「宏觀經濟不確定性對企業融資結構的影響研究」,湖南大學金融與統計學院碩士論文。
    汪瑞芝(2006),「兩稅合一制對公司資本投資影響之實證研究」,《中華管理評論國際學報》,9(2),1-19。
    林煜恩、池祥萱、鄭家興與魏麗㯴(2015),「產業結構對資本支出的影響:台灣實證」,《兩岸金融季刊》, 3(1),47-66。
    林靜儀(2004),「臺灣地區製造業市場集中度,廣告密集度與利潤率關係之探討」。
    金成隆,林修葳與邱煒恒(2005),「研究發展支出與資本支出的價值攸關性:以企業生命週期論析」,《中山管理評論》,第十三卷第三期,617-643。
    陳國進與王少謙(2016),「經濟政策不確定性如何影響企業投資行為」,《財貿經濟》,5,5-21。
    鄭雯芳、朱靜眉、謝淑玲與戴志璁(2018),「研發密集度對評價模型之影響-以台灣生技業為例」,《全球商業經營管理學報》,(10),99-107。

    英文部分
    Abel, A. B. (1983), “Optimal investment under uncertainty,"The American Economic Review, 73(1), 228.
    Acharya, V. V., Almeida, H., & Campello, M. (2013), “Aggregate risk and the choice between cash and lines of credit,"The Journal of Finance, 68(5), 2059-2116.
    Ahn, S., Denis, D. J., and Denis, D. K. (2006), “Leverage and investment in diversified firms,"Journal of financial Economics, 79(2), 317-337.
    Arellano, C., Bai, Y., and Kehoe, P. (2010), “Financial markets and fluctuations in uncertainty,"Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis Working Paper.
    Atanassov, J., Julio, B., and Leng, T. (2015), “The bright side of political uncertainty: The case of RandD,"Available at SSRN 2693605.
    Bachmann, R., Elstner, S., & Sims, E. R. (2013), “Uncertainty and economic activity: Evidence from business survey data,"American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, 5(2), 217-49.
    Banz, R. (1981), “The relationship between return and market value of common stocks,"Journal of Financial Economics 9, 3–18.
    Baker, S. R., & Bloom, N. (2013), “Does uncertainty reduce growth? Using disasters as natural experiments (No. w19475),"National Bureau of Economic Research.
    Baker, S. R., Bloom, N., & Davis, S. J. (2016), “Measuring economic policy uncertainty,"The quarterly journal of economics, 131(4), 1593-1636.
    Bansal, R., and Yaron, A. (2004), “Risks for the long run: A potential resolution of asset pricing puzzles,"The journal of Finance, 59(4), 1481-1509.
    Bar-Ilan, A., and Strange, W. C. (1996), “Investment lags,"The American Economic Review, 86(3), 610-622.
    Basu, S., and Bundick, B. (2017), “Uncertainty shocks in a model of effective demand,"Econometrica, 85(3), 937-958.
    Baum, C. F., Caglayan, M., & Talavera, O. (2008), “Uncertainty determinants of firm investment,"Economics Letters, 98(3), 282-287.
    Bernanke, B. S. (1983), “Irreversibility, Uncertainty and Cyclical Investment," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, 98(1): 85-106.
    Bianco, M., Bontempi, M. E., Golinelli, R., & Parigi, G. (2013), “Family firms’ investments, uncertainty and opacity,” Small Business Economics, 40(4), 1035-1058.
    Black, E. L., Legoria, J., and Sellers, K. F. (2000), “Capital investment effects of dividend imputation", Journal of the American Taxation Association, 22(2), 40-59.
    Bloom, N. (2009), “The impact of uncertainty shocks,"econometrica, 77(3), 623-685.
    Bloom, N., Bond, S., and Van Reenen, J. (2007), “Uncertainty and investment dynamics,” The review of economic studies, 74(2), 391-415.
    Bloom, N. (2007), “Uncertainty and the Dynamics of R&D,"American Economic Review, 97(2), 250-255.
    Bloom, N. (2014), “Fluctuations in uncertainty,” Journal of Economic Perspectives, 28(2), 153-76.
    Broom, H.N., Longenecker, J.G. (1979), “Small Business Management,” Palo Alto, California: South-Western Publishing Co., 1979.
    Blose, L. E., and Shieh, J. C. (1997), “Tobin`s q‐Ratio and market reaction to capital investment announcements,"Financial Review, 32(3), 449-476.
    Bo, H., and Sterken, E. (2002), “Volatility of the interest rate, debt and firm investment: Dutch evidence,"Journal of Corporate Finance, 8(2), 179-193.
    Bontempi, M. E., Golinelli, R., & Parigi, G. (2010), “Why demand uncertainty curbs investment: Evidence from a panel of Italian manufacturing firms,"Journal of Macroeconomics, 32(1), 218-238.
    Bromiley, P. (1986), “Corporate planning and capital investment,” Journal of Economic Behavior and Organization, 7(2), 147-170.
    Byrne, J. P., and Davis, E. P. (2004), “Permanent and temporary inflation uncertainty and investment in the United States," Economics Letters, 85(2), 271-277.
    Caballero, R. J. (1991), “On the sign of the investment-uncertainty relationship,” The American Economic Review, 81(1), 279-288.
    Carroll, C. D., and Samwick, A. A. (1998), “How important is precautionary saving ?,” Review of Economics and Statistics, 80(3), 410-419.
    Chiao, C. (2001), “The relationship between RandD and physical investment of firms in science-based industries,” Applied economics, 33(1), 23-35.
    Christiano, L. J., Motto, R., & Rostagno, M. (2014), “Risk shocks,"American Economic Review, 104(1), 27-65.
    Chung, H., Wright, P., and Charoenwong, C. (1998), “Investment opportunities and market reaction to capital expenditure decisions,” Journal of Banking and Finance, 22, 41-61.
    Clark, J. M. (1917), “Business acceleration and the law of demand: A technical factor in economic cycles,” Journal of political economy, 25(3), 217-235.
    Davis, S. J. (2016), “An index of global economic policy uncertainty (No. w22740) ,” National Bureau of Economic Research.
    Demir, E., and Ersan, O. (2017), “Economic policy uncertainty and cash holdings: Evidence from BRIC countries,” Emerging Markets Review, 33, 189-200.
    Denis, D. J. (1994), “Investment opportunities and the market reaction to equity offerings,” Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, 29(2), 159-177.
    Dixit, A., and Pindyck, R. (1994), “I Investment under Uncertainty,” Princeton University Press.
    Duchin, R., Ozbas, O., Sensoy, B.A., 2010, “Costly external finance, corporate investment, and the subprime mortgage credit crisis,” 97, 418–435.
    Favilukis, J., and Lin, X. (2013), “Long run productivity risk and aggregate investment,” Journal of Monetary Economics, 60(6), 737-751.
    Fazzari, S., Hubbard, R. G., and Petersen, B. C. (1987), “Financing constraints and corporate investment,” (No. w2387), National Bureau of Economic Research.
    Fernandez-Villaverde, J., Guerron-Quintana, P. A., Kuester, K., and Rubio-Ramírez, J. (2011), “Fiscal uncertainty and economic activity,” Manuscript, Duke University.
    Fernández-Villaverde, J., Guerrón-Quintana, P., Rubio-Ramírez, J. F., & Uribe, M. (2011), “Risk matters: The real effects of volatility shocks,” American Economic Review, 101(6), 2530-61.
    Federal Open Market Committee, Minutes of the December (2009), Meeting, available at http://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomcminutes20091216.htm
    Fisher, I. (1906), “The nature of capital and income,” The Macmillan Company.
    Galbraith, J. R. (1973), “Designing complex organizations,” Addison-Wesley Longman Publishing Co., Inc.
    Gala, V., and Julio, B. (2016), “Firm size and corporate investment,"Available at SSRN 1787350.
    Gertler, M., and Gilchrist, S. (1994), “Monetary policy, business cycles, and the behavior of small manufacturing firms,” The Quarterly Journal of Economics, 109(2), 309-340.
    Ghosal, V., & Loungani, P. (1996), “Firm size and the impact of profit-margin uncertainty on investment: do financing constraints play a role? (No. 557),” Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (US).
    Ghosal, V., & Loungani, P. (2000), “The differential impact of uncertainty on investment in small and large businesses,” Review of Economics and Statistics, 82(2), 338-343.
    Gilchrist, Simon, Vladimir Yankov, and Egon Zakrajsek. (2009), “Credit Market Shocks and Economic Fluctuations: Evidence from Corporate Bond and Stock Markets,” Journal of Monetary Economics 56 (4): 471–93.
    Gilchrist, Simon, and Egon Zakrajsek. (2012), “Credit Spreads and Business Cycle Fluctuations,” American Economic Review 102 (4): 1692–1720.
    Gilchrist, S. and Himmelberg, C.P. (1995), “Evidence on the role of cash flow for investment,” Journal of Monetary Economics, 36, 541-572.
    Gilchrist, S., and Zakrajšek, E. (2012), “Credit supply shocks and economic activity in a financial accelerator model,” Rethinking the Financial Crisis, 1, 37-72.
    Gilchrist, S., Sim, J. W., and Zakrajšek, E. (2014), “Uncertainty, financial frictions, and investment dynamics,” (No. w20038), National Bureau of Economic Research.
    Gilchrist, S., & Himmelberg, C. P. (1995), “Evidence on the role of cash flow for investment,"Journal of monetary Economics, 36(3), 541-572.
    Giroud, Xavier, and Holger M. Mueller (2010), “Does corporate governance matter in competitive industries?,” Journal of Financial Economics, 95, 312-331.
    Guiso, L., & Parigi, G. (1999), “Investment and demand uncertainty,” The Quarterly Journal of Economics, 114(1), 185-227.
    Gulen, H., & Ion, M. (2016), “Policy uncertainty and corporate investment,” The Review of Financial Studies, 29(3), 523-564.
    Hartman, R. (1972), “The effects of price and cost uncertainty on investment,” Journal of economic theory, 5(2), 258-266.
    Hassett, K. A., and Metcalf, G. E. (1999), “Investment with uncertain tax policy: Does random tax policy discourage investment,” The Economic Journal, 109(457), 372-393.
    Hersch, P., Netter, J. M., and Pope, C. (2008), “Do campaign contributions and lobbying expenditures by firms create "political" capital?", Atlantic Economic Journal, 36(4), 395-405.
    Hicks, J. R. (1935), “Annual survey of economic theory: the theory of monopoly,” Econometrica: Journal of the Econometric Society, 1-20.
    Ilut, C. L., and Schneider, M. (2014), “Ambiguous business cycles,” American Economic Review, 104(8), 2368-99.
    International Monetary Fund, “World Economic Outlook: Coping with High Debt and Sluggish Growth,” IMF Press, October 2012.
    International Monetary Fund, “World Economic Outlook: Hopes, Realities, Risks,” IMF Press, April 2013.
    Jensen, M. C., & Meckling, W. H. (1979), “Theory of the firm: Managerial behavior, agency costs, and ownership structure,"In Economics social institutions (pp. 163-231). Springer, Dordrecht.
    Jensen, M.C. (1986), “Agency costs of free cash flow, corporate finance, and takeovers,"American Economic Review, 76, 323–329.
    Jorgenson, D. W. (1963), “Capital theory and investment behavior,” The American Economic Review, 53(2), 247-259.
    Jung, S., and Kwak, G. (2018), “Firm Characteristics, Uncertainty and Research and Development (RandD) Investment: The Role of Size and Innovation Capacity,” Sustainability, 10(5), 1668.
    Jurado K, Ludvigson S C, Ng S,(2015), “Measuring uncertainty[J],"American Economic Review, 2015, 105(3): 1177–1216
    Julio, B., & Yook, Y. (2012), “Political uncertainty and corporate investment cycles,"The Journal of Finance, 67(1), 45-83.
    Kadapakkam, P. R., Kumar, P. C., and Riddick, L. A. (1998), “The impact of cash flows and firm size on investment: The international evidence,” Journal of banking and Finance, 22(3), 293-320.
    Kim, M. K., & Burnie, D. A. (2002), “The firm size effect and the economic cycle,” Journal of Financial Research, 25(1), 111-124.
    Knight, F. H. (1921), “Risk, uncertainty and profit,” Boston: Houghton Mifflin
    Kraft, H., Schwartz, E., and Weiss, F. (2018), “Growth options and firm valuation. European Financial Management,” 24(2), 209-238.
    Keynes, J. M. (1936), “The General Theory of Employment, Interest and Money,” Macmillan, London.
    Lach, S., and Rob, R. (1996), “RandD, investment, and industry dynamics,” Journal of Economics and Management Strategy, 5(2), 217-249.
    Lach, S., and Schankerman, M. (1989), “Dynamics of R and D and Investment in the Scientific Sector,” Journal of Political Economy, 97(4), 880-904.
    Lang, H. P., and Litzenberger, H. (1989), “Dividend announcements: Cash flow signalling vs free cash flow hypothesis,” Journal of Financial Economics, 24, 181-192.
    Lang, L.H.P., Ofek, E., Stulz, R.M. (1996), “Leverage, investment, and firm growth,"Journal of Financial Economics, 40, 3–29.
    Leahy, J. V., & Whited, T. M. (1996), “The Effect of Uncertainty on Investment: Some Stylized Facts,” Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, 28(1), 64-83.
    Leduc, S., and Liu, Z. (2016), “Uncertainty shocks are aggregate demand shocks,” Journal of Monetary Economics, 82, 20-35.
    Lensink, R., Bo, H., & Sterken, E. (1999), “Does uncertainty affect economic growth? An empirical analysis,” Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv, 135(3), 379-396.
    March, J. G. and H. A. Simon (1958), “Organizations,” New York.
    Marchica, MT and Mura, R. (2007), “Cash holding policy and ability to invest: How do firms determine their capital expenditures?,” http://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/results.cfm
    McDonald, R., & Siegel, D. (1986), “The value of waiting to invest,"The quarterly journal of economics, 101(4), 707-727.
    Meckling, J. (1986), “Agency costs of free cash flow, corporate finance, and takeovers,"American Economic Review, 76, 323-329.
    Modigliani, F. and Miller, M. H. (1958), “The Cost of Capital, Corporate Finance and the Theory of Investment,"American Economic Review, 48, 261-97.
    Myers, S. (1977), “The determinants of corporate borrowing,"Journal of Financial Economics 5, 147–175.
    Myers, S. C. (1984), “The capital structure puzzle,"The journal of finance, 39(3), 574-592.
    Myers, S. C., & Majluf, N. S. (1984), “Corporate financing and investment decisions when firms have informationthat investors do not have (No. w1396),"National Bureau of Economic Research.
    Oi, W. Y. (1961), “The desirability of price instability under perfect competition,” Econometrica, 58-64.
    Paddock, J. L., Siegel, D. R., and Smith, J. L. (1988), “Option valuation of claims on real assets: The case of offshore petroleum leases,” The Quarterly Journal of Economics, 103(3), 479-508.
    Panousi, V., and Papanikolaou, D. (2012), “Investment, idiosyncratic risk, and ownership,"The Journal of finance, 67(3), 1113-1148.
    Pastor, L., and Veronesi, P. (2012), “Uncertainty about government policy and stock prices,” The journal of Finance, 67(4), 1219-1264.
    Peeters, M. (1997), “Does demand and price uncertainty affect Belgian and Spanish corporate investment?,"Banco de España, Servicio de Estudios.
    Petersen, M. A. (2009), “Estimating standard errors in finance panel data sets: Comparing approaches", The Review of Financial Studies, 22(1), 435-480.
    Phan, H. V., Nguyen, N. H., Nguyen, H. T., and Hegde, S. (2019), “Policy uncertainty and firm cash holdings,” Journal of Business Research, 95, 71-82.
    Pilotte, E. (1992), “Growth opportunities and the stock price response to new financing,” Journal of Business, 371-394.
    Pindyck, R. S. (1988), “Irreversible Investment, Capacity Choice, and the Value of the Firm,” The American Economic Review, 969-985.
    Pindyck, R. S. (1991), “Irreversibility, Uncertainty, and Investment,” Journal of Economic Literature, 29(3), 1110.
    Quagliariello, M. (2009), “Macroeconomic uncertainty and banks’ lending decisions: The case of Italy,” Applied Economics, 41(3), 323-336.
    Ramey, G. and V. Ramcy (1991), “Technology commitment and the cost of economic fluctuations,” Working Paper No. 3755 National Bureau of Economic Research Cambridge MA
    Ramey, G. and V. Ramcy (1995), “Cross-Country Evidence on the Link Between Volatility and Growth,” American Economie Review, 85, pp. 1138-1151
    Reinganum, M., (1981), “ Misspecification of capital asset pricing: Empirical anomalies based on earnings yields and market value,” Journal of Financial Economics 9, 19–46.DOI: 10.1016/0304-405X(81)90019-2
    Rodrik, D. (1989), “Policy uncertainty and private investment in developing countries,” (No. w2999), National Bureau of Economic Research.
    Sartono, A. (2001), “Pengaruh Aliran Kas Internal dan Kepemilikan Manajer dalam Perusahaan Terhadap Pembelanjaan Modal: Managerial Hypothesis atau Pecking Order Hypothesis?,"Jurnal Ekonomi dan Bisnis Indonesia, Vol. 16, No. 1 (Januari), pp. 54-63.
    Scott, R. (2003), “Over-investment of free cash flow and corporate governance [R],"Working Paper, University of Pennsylvania.
    Segal, G., Shaliastovich, I., and Yaron, A. (2015), “Good and bad uncertainty: Macroeconomic and financial market implications,” Journal of Financial Economics, 117(2), 369-397.
    Stulz, R.M. (1990), “Managerial discretion and optimal financing policies," Journal of Financial Economics, 26, 3–27.
    Tobin, J. (1969), “A general equilibrium approach to monetary theory,"Journal of money, credit and banking, 1(1), 15-29.
    Trigeorgis, L. and S.P. Mason (1987), “Valuing Managerial Flexibility,"Midland Corporate Finance Journal 5, 1, pp. 14-21.
    Trigeorgis, L. (1993), “Real Options and Interactions with Financial Flexibility,"Financial Management, 22(3), 202-224. Retrieved May 7, 2020, from www.jstor.org/stable/3665939
    Wang, Y., Chen, C. R., and Huang, Y. S. (2014), “Economic policy uncertainty and corporate investment: Evidence from China,"Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, 26, 227-243.
    Description: 碩士
    國立政治大學
    行政管理碩士學程
    103921041
    Source URI: http://thesis.lib.nccu.edu.tw/record/#G0103921041
    Data Type: thesis
    DOI: 10.6814/NCCU202001012
    Appears in Collections:[行政管理碩士學程(MEPA)] 學位論文

    Files in This Item:

    File Description SizeFormat
    104101.pdf3497KbAdobe PDF20View/Open


    All items in 政大典藏 are protected by copyright, with all rights reserved.


    社群 sharing

    著作權政策宣告 Copyright Announcement
    1.本網站之數位內容為國立政治大學所收錄之機構典藏,無償提供學術研究與公眾教育等公益性使用,惟仍請適度,合理使用本網站之內容,以尊重著作權人之權益。商業上之利用,則請先取得著作權人之授權。
    The digital content of this website is part of National Chengchi University Institutional Repository. It provides free access to academic research and public education for non-commercial use. Please utilize it in a proper and reasonable manner and respect the rights of copyright owners. For commercial use, please obtain authorization from the copyright owner in advance.

    2.本網站之製作,已盡力防止侵害著作權人之權益,如仍發現本網站之數位內容有侵害著作權人權益情事者,請權利人通知本網站維護人員(nccur@nccu.edu.tw),維護人員將立即採取移除該數位著作等補救措施。
    NCCU Institutional Repository is made to protect the interests of copyright owners. If you believe that any material on the website infringes copyright, please contact our staff(nccur@nccu.edu.tw). We will remove the work from the repository and investigate your claim.
    DSpace Software Copyright © 2002-2004  MIT &  Hewlett-Packard  /   Enhanced by   NTU Library IR team Copyright ©   - Feedback