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| Title: | 經濟失落經驗如何影響房市發展？–以日本為例
How Lost Decades’ Experience Influence the Housing Markets: A Lesson from Japan |
| Authors: | 陳琬宜
Chen, Wan-I |
| Contributors: | 陳明吉
Chen, Ming-Chi
陳琬宜
Chen, Wan-I |
| Keywords: | 失落十年
經驗效果
房價偏離
日本房市
lost decades
experience effects
house price deviation
Japanese housing market |
| Date: | 2020 |
| Issue Date: | 2020-08-03 17:33:21 (UTC+8) |
| Abstract: | 經驗效果 (experience effects) 指出民眾終身經驗會影響到未來看法及決策，不論是在金融商品、勞動市場，甚至預期通膨均適用，全球金融市場曾經歷過幾次重大的總體經濟衝擊，此亦同時重創到房地產市場，許多國家至今房市發展仍尚未完全復甦，本研究認為每個人的購屋意願會與他們過往所經歷的房市循環息息相關，尤其以日本最為明顯，在房市泡沫後經歷長達三十年之久的失落經驗，影響到民眾對於房市持有悲觀的看法，不願意購買自住房屋。本研究根據經驗效果建立出個別縣市的購屋意願，衡量一縣市民眾在經歷過去房價相對偏離東京水準的長久經驗後，購屋意願是否會影響到房地產市場發展。主要的實證結果如下：(1) 日本整體縣市購屋意願對租金為顯著負向影響，當地區房價水準相對東京較不偏離時，民眾的購屋意願程度較高，將負向抑制租金價格成長，且此影響在房價相對東京上漲不超過0.0030個單位最為劇烈，不過若房價上漲超過此一程度則會產生相反的效果；若區分整體縣市為都市區及非都市區，非都市區的購屋意願對租金之負面影響更加強烈，都市區卻不顯著，推測日本國內存在城鄉差距，各大都會圈之房價會自動調整，因此與東京異質性較低，導致購屋意願無法顯著反應在租金市場上。(2) 將租金以交易量替代為觀察變數後，日本八大都市的購屋意願雖正向影響交易量但並不顯著，再次驗證租金之結果。(3) 透過計算各縣市1985年至2015年之累積房價相對東京水準之偏離經驗，觀察到長久的過去失落累積經驗能夠解釋地區房市之差異，當地區購屋意願越高時，能發揮抑制到租金價格成長的作用，這同時也正面反應在住宅自有率上，使得人們較願意購屋，然而在房地產交易量較無法利用累積經驗來解釋地區差異。
Experience effects indicates that lifetime experience will affect people`s overviews and decisions about the future, whether it is in financial commodities, labor markets, or even inflation expectations. Global financial markets have experienced several major overall macroeconomic shocks, and this also affected the real estate market, many countries still have not yet fully recovered. This study believes that everyone’s willingness to be a homeowner is closely related to the housing market cycle they have experienced in the past, especially in Japan. We establishes the willingness to buy a house in individual city based on experience effects, and measures whether the willingness will affect the development of the real estate market after a long term experience of housing prices deviating from the Tokyo in the past. The main empirical results are as follows: (1) Japan`s overall prefecture-level willingness has a significant negative impact on rents. When the regional house price level does not deviate too far from Tokyo, the willingness to purchase a house is relatively high, which will negatively restrain rental price growth. Moreover, this effect is most severe when housing prices rise by no more than 0.0030 units relative to Tokyo. If we divided the overall city into urban and non-urban areas, the non-urban area`s willingness to buy a house is more negative on rent, but the urban area is not significant because of low heterogeneity between cities. (2) After replacing rent with trading volume, the willingness to buy a house in the eight metropolitan areas positively affects the volume but is not significant, same as the result of rent. (3) By calculating the accumulated deviation experience relative to Tokyo in various cities from 1985 to 2015, it is confirmed that the long-term accumulated willingness to buy a home can explain the difference in the housing market in the region. |
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| Description: | 碩士
國立政治大學
財務管理學系
107357009 |
| Source URI: | http://thesis.lib.nccu.edu.tw/record/#G0107357009 |
| Data Type: | thesis |
| DOI: | 10.6814/NCCU202000805 |
| Appears in Collections: | [財務管理學系] 學位論文
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