Loading...
|
Please use this identifier to cite or link to this item:
https://nccur.lib.nccu.edu.tw/handle/140.119/130946
|
| Title: | 監管法規與分析師盈餘預測之關聯性：來自中國的證據
The Relationship between Analyst Regulation and Analysts’ Earnings Forecasts: Evidence from China |
| Authors: | 陳紫靈
Chen, Zi-Ling |
| Contributors: | 金成隆
Chin, Chen-Lung
陳紫靈
Chen, Zi-Ling |
| Keywords: | 分析師監管法規
分析師盈餘預測誤差
分析師盈餘預測離散度
Analyst Regulation
Earnings Forecast Errors
Earnings Forecast Dispersion |
| Date: | 2020 |
| Issue Date: | 2020-08-03 17:29:43 (UTC+8) |
| Abstract: | 2011年中國證監會正式實施《發佈證券研究報告暫行規定》，此法規的目的是規範證券分析師發佈研究報告的執業行為，保護投資者的合法權益，以促進證券市場的信息公平。本研究以國泰安(CSMAR)數據庫中2007-2016年中國上市公司為樣本，探討《發佈證券研究報告暫行規定》這一監管法規的實施對分析師盈餘預測的影響，包括盈餘預測誤差和盈餘預測離散度。實證結果表明，分析師盈餘預測誤差和離散度在法規實施後顯著增加；在法規實施之前，機構投資者持股比例和分析師盈餘預測誤差、盈餘預測離散度之間具正向關係但不顯著，然而法規實施後，機構投資者持股比例越高的上市公司，分析師對其的盈餘預測誤差、盈餘預測離散度越小。綜合以上結論可知，雖然《發佈證券研究報告暫行規定》的實施使得分析師的盈餘預測質量變差，然而卻在一定程度上緩解了分析師面臨來自於機構投資者的壓力。
Interim Provisions on the Release of Securities Research Reports, issued by China Securities Regulatory Commission, became effective on January 1, 2011. This regulation aims to regulate the acts of securities companies in releasing securities research reports, protect the legitimate rights of investors and promote information fairness in the securities market. This thesis aims to examine the impact of this regulation on analysts` earnings forecast behaviors. Using a sample of listed companies between 2007 and 2016 in China, the empirical results indicate that analysts` forecast errors and dispersion are significantly increased after the implementation of the regulation. There is no significant relationship between the proportion of institutional investors’ shareholdings and analysts’ earnings forecast errors and dispersion before the regulation. However, after the regulation, the proportion of institutional investors is significantly negatively correlated with analyst`s earnings forecast errors and dispersion. |
| Reference: | 王宇熹與謝魯江，2016，美國證券分析師監管法律實施效果述評與借鑒，證券市場導報，2月號：72-78。
王東清與李傑，2013，公平信息披露對證券分析師盈餘預測分歧度的影響研究，福建金融管理幹部學院學報，第132期：3-9。
王菊仙、王玉濤與魯桂華，2016，地理距離影響證券分析師預測行為嗎？中央財經大學學報，第1期：61-72。
方軍雄，2007，我國上市公司信息披露透明度與證券分析師預測，金融研究，第324期：136-148。
石桂峰、蘇力勇與齊偉山，2007，財務分析師盈餘預測精確度決定因素的實證分析，財經研究，第33卷，第5期：62-71。
白曉宇，2009，上市公司信息披露政策對分析師預測的多重影響研究，金融研究，第346期：92-112。
朱衛東、王麗娜與沈潔，2016，機構投資者持股壓力下證券分析師樂觀傾向研究，中國管理科學，第24卷，第8期（8月）：45-52。
伍艷，2003，聚焦證券分析師——透析美國SOX法案規制證券分析師利益沖突之新規則，經濟師，第4期：87-88。
金成隆、陳美惠與曾小青，2015，資本市場會計研究：理論框架與實證證據，大連：東北財經大學出版社。
周開國、應千偉與陳曉嫻，2014，媒體關注度、分析師關注度與盈餘預測準確度，金融研究，第404期：139-152。
林遊，2004，小議證券分析師面臨的利益沖突，事業財會，第92期：45-46。
於鵬與彭勇行，2006，IPO盈利預測誤差的經驗分析，中國系統工程學會社會經濟系統工程專業委員會第九屆年會《經濟系統分析：理論與應用》：398-413，社會科學文獻出版社。
胡軍、王甄、陶瑩與鄒雋奇，2016，微博、信息披露與分析師盈餘預測，財經研究，第42卷，第5期（5月）：66-76。
胡奕明、林文雄與王瑋璐，2003，證券分析師的信息來源、關注域與分析工具，金融研究，第282期：52-63。
胡娜、周銘山、郭壽良與張元偉，2014，股權投資背景下券商獨立性研究——基于證券分析師研究報告的視角，財經科學，第310期：28-37。
洪劍峭與張新，2011，基金凈值排名對證券分析師薦股行為的影響，中國會計學會2011學術年會論文集，中國會計學會教育分會。
原紅旗與黃倩茹，2007，承銷商分析師與非承銷商分析師預測評級比較研究，中國會計評論，第5卷，第3期（10月）：285-304。
崔明，2014，證券咨詢業的利益衝突與監管——美歐監管經驗及對我國的啟示，浙江金融，第11期：53-58。
郭建文與郭茜，2015，機構投資者與分析師利益衝突實證研究，商洛學院學報，第29卷，第4期（8月）：67-71。
郭傑與洪潔瑛，2009，中國證券分析師的盈餘預測行為有效性研究，經濟研究，第11期：55-81。
張羽曉，2018，證券分析師利益衝突的法律規制——基於中美比較法視角的研究，山東大學民商法學博士論文。
曹勝與朱紅軍，2011，王婆販瓜：券商自營業務與分析師樂觀性，管理世界，第7期：20-30。
董望、陳俊與陳漢文，2017，內部控制質量影響了分析師行為嗎？——來自中國證券市場的經驗證據，金融研究，第450期：191-206。
楊青、吉贇與王亞男，2019，高鐵能提升分析師盈餘預測的準確度嗎？——來自上市公司的證據，金融研究，第465期：168-188。
楊艷林，2012，證券分析師利益衝突與研究質量——對美國賣方研究機構監管經驗的再思考，創新與發展：中國證券業2012年論文集：1100-1109，中國財政經濟出版社。
劉少波與吳瑋琳，2010，公平信息披露規則研究評述，經濟學動態，第3期：125-130。
劉少波與彭繡梅，2012，公平信息披露與分析師預測精度——來自中國上市公司的經驗證據，證券市場導報，3月號：33-38。
潘越、戴亦一與劉思超，2011，我國承銷商利用分析師報告托市了嗎？經濟研究，第3期：131-144。
譚躍、鐘子英與管總平，2013，公平信息披露規則能緩解證券分析師的利益衝突嗎？南開管理評論，第16卷，第4期：43-54。
Agrawal, A., S. Chadha, and M. A. Chen. 2006. Who is afraid of Reg. FD? The behavior and performance of sell‐side analysts following the SEC’s fair disclosure rules. The Journal of Business 79 (6): 2811-2834.
Arya, A., J. Glover, B. Mittendorf, and G. Narayanamoorthy. 2005. Unintended consequences of regulating disclosures: The case of Regulation Fair Disclosure. Journal of Accounting and Public Policy 24 (3): 243-252.
Bailey, W., H. Li, C. X. Mao, and R. Zhong.2003. Regulation Fair Disclosure and earnings information: Market, analyst, and corporate responses. The Journal of Finance 58 (6): 2487-2514.
Behn, B. K., J. Choi, and T. Kang. 2008. Audit quality and properties of analyst earnings forecasts. The Accounting Review 83 (2): 327-349.
Butler, K. C., and L. H. P. Lang. 1991. The forecast accuracy of individual analysts: Evidence of systematic optimism and pessimism. Journal of Accounting Research 29 (1): 150-156.
Chen, Q., and W. Jiang. 2006. Analysts’ weighting of private and public information. The Review of Financial Studies 19 (1): 319-355.
Clement, M. B. 1999. Analyst forecast accuracy: Do ability, resources, and portfolio complexity matter? Journal of Accounting and Economics 27 (3): 285-303.
Cohen, L., A. Frazzini, and C. Malloy. 2010. Sell‐side school ties. The Journal of Finance 65 (4): 1409-1437.
Dechow, P. M., A. P. Hutton, and R. G. Sloan. 2000. The relation between analysts` forecasts of long-term earnings growth and stock price performance following equity offerings. Contemporary Accounting Research 17 (1): 1-32.
Gu, Z., and J. S. Wu. 2003. Earnings skewness and analyst forecast bias. Journal of Accounting and Economics 35 (1): 5-29.
Gu, Z., Z. Li, and Y. G. Yang. 2012. Monitors or predators: The influence of institutional investors on sell-side analysts. The Accounting Review 88 (1): 137-169.
Hahn, T., and M. Song. 2006. Has Regulation Fair Disclosure increased the importance of public information to analysts? The case of earnings announcements. Working paper, Auburn University.
Heflin, F., K. R. Subramanyam, and Y. Zhang. 2003. Regulation FD and the financial information environment: Early evidence. The Accounting Review 78 (1): 1-37.
Hope, O. 2003. Accounting policy disclosures and analysts’ forecasts. Contemporary Accounting Research 20 (2): 295-321.
Hovakimian, A., and E. Saenyasiri. 2010. Conflicts of interest and analyst behavior: Evidence from recent changes in regulation. Financial Analysts Journal 66 (4): 96-107.
Irvine, P., M. Lipson, and A. Puckett. 2007. Tipping. The Review of Financial Studies 20 (3): 741-768.
Jackson, A. R. 2005. Trade generation, reputation, and sell‐side analysts. The Journal of Finance 60 (2): 673-717.
Keskek, S., L. A. Myers, T. C. Omer, and M. K. Shelley. 2017. The effects of disclosure and analyst regulations on the relevance of analyst characteristics for explaining analyst forecast accuracy. Journal of Business Finance and Accounting 44 (5-6): 780-811.
Kross, W. J., and I. Suk. 2012. Does Regulation FD work? Evidence from analysts` reliance on public disclosure. Journal of Accounting and Economics 53 (1-2): 225-248.
Lang, M. H., and R. J. Lundholm. 1996. Corporate disclosure policy and analyst behavior. The Accounting Review 71 (4): 467-492.
Lee, E., N. Strong, and Z. Zhu. 2014. Did regulation fair disclosure, SOX, and other analyst regulations reduce security mispricing? Journal of Accounting Research 52 (3): 733-774.
Li, X., and H. G. Heidle. 2004. Information leakage and opportunistic behavior before analyst recommendations: An analysis of the quoting behavior of NASDAQ market makers. Working paper, AFA 2004 San Diego Meetings.
Lim, T. 2001. Rationality and analysts’ forecast bias. The Journal of Finance 56 (1): 369-385.
Ljungqvist, A., F. C. Marston, and W. J. Wilhelm. 2005. Scaling the hierarchy: How and why investment banks compete for syndicate co-management appointments. Working paper, New York University.
Michaely, R., and K. L. Womack. 1999. Conflict of interest and the credibility of underwriter analyst recommendations. The Review of Financial Studies 12 (4): 653-686.
Mola, S., and M. Guidolin. 2009. Affiliated mutual funds and analyst optimism. Journal of Financial Economics 93 (1): 108-137.
Parkash, M., D. S. Dhaliwal, and W. K. Salatka. 1995. How certain firm-specific characteristics affect the accuracy and dispersion of analysts` forecasts: A latent variables approach. Journal of Business Research 34 (3): 161-169.
Shane, P. B., N. S. Soderstrom, and S. W. Yoon. 2001. Earnings and price discovery in the post-Reg. FD information environment: A preliminary analysis. Working paper, University of Colorado.
Shen, C., and H. Chih. 2009. Conflicts of interest in the stock recommendations of investment banks and their determinants. Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis 44 (5): 1149-1171.
Sidhu, B., T. Smith, R. E. Whaley and R. H. Willis. 2008. Regulation Fair Disclosure and the cost of adverse selection. Journal of Accounting Research 46 (3): 697-728.
Sirri, E. 2004. Investment banks, scope, and unavoidable conflicts of interest. Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta Economic Review 89 (4): 23-35.
Stickel, S.E. 1992. Reputation and performance among security analysts. The Journal of Finance 47 (5): 1811-1836. |
| Description: | 碩士
國立政治大學
會計學系
107353052 |
| Source URI: | http://thesis.lib.nccu.edu.tw/record/#G0107353052 |
| Data Type: | thesis |
| DOI: | 10.6814/NCCU202000818 |
| Appears in Collections: | [會計學系] 學位論文
|
Files in This Item:
There are no files associated with this item.
|
All items in 政大典藏 are protected by copyright, with all rights reserved.
|
