政大機構典藏-National Chengchi University Institutional Repository(NCCUR):Item 140.119/130481
English  |  正體中文  |  简体中文  |  Post-Print筆數 : 27 |  全文筆數/總筆數 : 113392/144379 (79%)
造訪人次 : 51222693      線上人數 : 883
RC Version 6.0 © Powered By DSPACE, MIT. Enhanced by NTU Library IR team.
搜尋範圍 查詢小技巧：
  • 您可在西文檢索詞彙前後加上"雙引號"，以獲取較精準的檢索結果
  • 若欲以作者姓名搜尋，建議至進階搜尋限定作者欄位，可獲得較完整資料
    •  進階搜尋


    請使用永久網址來引用或連結此文件: https://nccur.lib.nccu.edu.tw/handle/140.119/130481


    題名: 臺灣稅收預測表現之探討
    An Empirical Study on the Forecast Performance of Tax Revenue in Taiwan
    作者: 陳國樑
    Chen, Joe
    黃勢璋
    楊佩烜
    貢獻者: 財政系
    關鍵詞: 稅收預測;準確性;理性
    Tax Forecasting;Accuracy;Rational Test
    日期: 2019-08
    上傳時間: 2020-06-29 09:39:02 (UTC+8)
    摘要: 政府近年屢屢出現實際稅收大幅高於預算稅收的現象，「稅收預測」準 確性的討論已成為各界矚目焦點。雖然稅收預測與政府施政作為息息相關， 但國內檢討臺灣稅收預測的文獻尚不多見。本文藉由臺灣 1984–2017 年的稅 收預決算資料，透過跨國比較、理性檢驗、準確性分析以及迴歸模型等方式， 探討我國政府稅收預測的表現。研究結果顯示，政府現行稅收預測未能具備 準確趨勢，無法滿足統計預測弱理性的要求，也未能有效運用資訊；本文另 採其他方法對各稅目進行稅收預測，結果亦顯示大多優於現行政府之預測。
    In recent years, the government has repeatedly experienced the phenomenon that actual tax revenue is significantly higher than budgetary forecast. The discussion on the accuracy of “tax forecast” has become the focus of attention from all walks of life. To examine whether tax revenue forecasts correspond to the properties of “good forecasts” in statistics and econometrics, we conduct cross-country comparison, rational tests, comparison of accuracy, and regression analysis, using data collected from budgetary forecasts and realized tax revenues in the period from 1986 to 2017. The results find that the government`s tax forecast has no accurate trend, and does not satisfy weak rationality, suggesting that the government does not use information effectively. Finally, forecast results from four competing methods are compared to the official forecasts, and the results suggest that the competing estimates are more accurate for most of the taxes.
    關聯: 人文及社會科學集刊
    資料類型: article
    顯示於類別:[財政學系] 期刊論文

    文件中的檔案:

    檔案 描述 大小格式瀏覽次數
    500.pdf414KbAdobe PDF2265檢視/開啟


    在政大典藏中所有的資料項目都受到原著作權保護.


    社群 sharing

    著作權政策宣告 Copyright Announcement
    1.本網站之數位內容為國立政治大學所收錄之機構典藏，無償提供學術研究與公眾教育等公益性使用，惟仍請適度，合理使用本網站之內容，以尊重著作權人之權益。商業上之利用，則請先取得著作權人之授權。
    The digital content of this website is part of National Chengchi University Institutional Repository. It provides free access to academic research and public education for non-commercial use. Please utilize it in a proper and reasonable manner and respect the rights of copyright owners. For commercial use, please obtain authorization from the copyright owner in advance.

    2.本網站之製作，已盡力防止侵害著作權人之權益，如仍發現本網站之數位內容有侵害著作權人權益情事者，請權利人通知本網站維護人員(nccur@nccu.edu.tw)，維護人員將立即採取移除該數位著作等補救措施。
    NCCU Institutional Repository is made to protect the interests of copyright owners. If you believe that any material on the website infringes copyright, please contact our staff(nccur@nccu.edu.tw). We will remove the work from the repository and investigate your claim.
    DSpace Software Copyright © 2002-2004  MIT &  Hewlett-Packard  /   Enhanced by   NTU Library IR team Copyright ©   - 回饋