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    題名: Investigating the Inefficiency of the CBO`s Budgetary Projections
    作者: 荒井夏來
    Natsuki Arai
    貢獻者: 國貿系
    關鍵詞: Congressional budget office;Forecast evaluation;Conditional forecasts;Economic projections;Survey of professional forecasters
    日期: 2019-12
    上傳時間: 2020-05-26 13:44:28 (UTC+8)
    摘要: This paper evaluates the efficiency of budgetary projections issued by the Congressional Budget Office (CBO) from 1984 to 2016 and investigates the cause of their inefficiency. The efficiency of both its budgetary and macroeconomic projections is rejected in many cases, especially for revenue projections. A comparison of forecast evaluations suggests that the inefficiency of revenue projections is likely due to the inefficiency of the underlying macroeconomic projections. By adjusting budgetary projections by the CBO in real time using macroeconomic forecasts by the Survey of Professional Forecasters, the accuracy of the former projections can be significantly improved in some cases, by up to 26% in terms of the root-mean-square prediction error.
    關聯: International Journal of Forecasting,
    資料類型: article
    DOI 連結: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijforecast.2019.12.008
    DOI: 10.1016/j.ijforecast.2019.12.008
    顯示於類別:[國際經營與貿易學系 ] 期刊論文

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