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    Title: 川普與歐巴馬政府對中政策之比較: 國際與國內政治之視角
    Comparative Study On Obama and Trump`s China Policy:Global and Domestic Politics` Standpoint
    Authors: 曾勢喨
    Tseng, Shih-Liang
    Contributors: 李明
    Li, Ming
    曾勢喨
    Tseng, Shih-Liang
    Keywords: 川普
    對中政策
    制衡
    圍合
    歐巴馬
    美國政治
    Date: 2019
    Issue Date: 2020-01-03 15:59:36 (UTC+8)
    Abstract: 美國長期的對中政策是所謂的「圍合」政策,也就是「交往」與「圍堵」並行的策略,而在冷戰結束後,美國的對中政策顯然偏向以交往為主,圍堵為次,此自柯林頓政府至小布希政府,甚至在歐巴馬政府時代皆然。在歐巴馬政府時期,雖其因應中共的強勢行為,推出了「重返亞太」或所謂「再平衡」政策,維持美國在亞太區域的領導地位,但事實上其無意全面制衡中共,而仍希望在經濟與氣候變遷等議題上持續與中共合作。至川普政府上台,其開始積極地在政治、經濟、安全等各個面向全面的制衡中共,強硬的維護美國的經濟安全與霸權地位,此乃冷戰結束後美國政府未曾採取過的對中政策。
    本文試圖以層次分析法,亦即國際與國內政治的視角,理解為何川普政府選擇了遠較其前任、甚至冷戰結束以來的歷任政府更為強硬的對中政策。從國際政治的視角來看,中共在兩任政府期間軍事、潛在(經濟)權力的快速增長,伴隨著中共在地緣政治上倍增的影響力,確實給美國帶來了巨大的結構性壓力,讓川普政府可能採取更為強硬的對中政策。此外,從國內政治的視角來看,美國外交政策圈、商業界與人權團體等各利益團體,都因各式理由開始支持對中共採取更為強硬的政策,加上了對全球化、認同政治反動而造成的美國國內傑克遜主義的復興,皆促成了川普政府更為強硬的對中政策。而若從總統人格的觀點來看,川普極度自戀的人格與歐巴馬謹慎、喜愛以協調解決衝突的人格也大不相同,此也造成了兩任政府對中政策的差異。
    Reference: 一、中文部分
    (一) 政府出版品
    行政院大陸委員會,〈「一帶一路」、「TPP」、「RCEP」發展現況與對我國全球經貿戰略布局之影響與因應作為報告〉,立法院第9屆第3會期外交及國防委員會第25次全體委員會議,2017年。

    (二) 專書
    王義桅、唐小松譯,John Mearsheimer原著,《大國政治的悲劇》。台北:麥田出版,2014年。
    包宗和、吳玉山主編,《爭辯中的兩岸關係理論》。臺北:五南出版社,1999年。
    包淳亮譯,Graham Allison原著,《注定一戰?中美能否避免修昔底德陷阱》。新北:八旗文化,2018年。

    (三) 期刊論文
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    涂志堅、唐欣偉,〈從總體觀點看柯林頓政府時期的美「中」臺戰略三角〉,《遠景季刊》2卷2期,2001年,頁163-195。
    秦峰、許芳,〈黑暗人格三合一研究評述〉,《心理科學進展》,2013年,第21卷第7期,頁1248–1261。
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    張登及,〈「再平衡」對美中關係之影響:一個理論與政策的分析〉,《遠景基金會季刊》,第14卷第2期,2013年,頁53-98。
    郭俊麟,〈東南亞區域整合經驗 「東協模式」的實踐與檢討〉,《台灣國際研究季刊》,第4卷第1期,2008年,頁99-126
    陳亨安,〈中國大陸推動「一帶一路」成效與展望及對臺影響〉,《經濟研究》,第18期,2018年,頁431-456。
    黃介正,〈歐巴馬亞洲行與美國亞太戰略轉型〉,《展望與探索》,第7卷第12期,2009年,頁1-4。
    黃奕維,〈中國大陸「一帶一路」倡議阻力與發展〉,《展望與探索》,第16卷12期,2018年,頁85-95。
    廖顯謨,張凱銘,〈歐巴馬政府的亞太政策:門戶開放下的超區域霸權戰略〉,《全球政治評論》,第42期,2013年,頁63-90。
    劉心國,〈美國外資投資委員會改革法案〉,《經貿法訊》,第229期,2018年,頁5-12。
    蔡昌言,李大中,〈不對稱戰爭相關理論及其應用於中國對臺戰略之研析〉,《遠景基金會季刊》,第8卷第3期,2007年。
    蔡增家,〈天安艦後的朝鮮半島新局勢〉,《展望與探索》,第8卷第6期,2010年,頁6-10。

    (四) 學位論文
    蘇建文,《美國對中國政策的續與變—從小布希到歐巴馬》,南華大學國際暨大陸事務學系亞太研究所碩士論文,2012年。

    (五) 網路資料
    〈美加墨敲定自貿協議 中美貿易越趨「孤立」〉,《BBC News中文》,〈https://www.bbc.com/zhongwen/trad/business-45710029〉,2018年。
    〈美印太司令:中國是美國長期最大戰略威脅〉,《民報》,〈https://www.peoplenews.tw/news/b8697960-39cc-45b0-ab8b-57ef49947a58〉,2019年。
    〈美國務院批准 軍售台灣80億美元F-16戰機〉,《中央社》,〈https://www.cna.com.tw/news/firstnews/201908210010.aspx〉,2019年。
    〈美國與菲律賓兩國達成新的防務合作協定〉,《BBC News中文》,〈https://www.bbc.com/zhongwen/trad/world/2014/04/140411_usa_philippines_agreement〉,2014年。
    〈退出TPP 川普簽行政命令〉,《自由時報》,〈https://news.ltn.com.tw/news/world/paper/1073642〉,2017年。
    〈從「川蔡通話」到「堅持一個中國」:川普對台灣問題反覆不定〉,《風傳媒》,〈https://www.storm.mg/article/356894〉,2017年。
    〈從檔案袋到信用評分 中國是否正走向「奧威爾式」監控社會〉,《BBC News中文》,〈https://www.bbc.com/zhongwen/trad/chinese-news-45886126〉,2018年。
    〈補貼與衡平措施〉,《WTO入口網》,經濟部國際貿易局,〈https://wto.trade.gov.tw/cwto/Pages/Detail.aspx?nodeID=419&pid=311340&dl_DateRange=all&txt_SD=&txt_ED=&txt_Keyword=&Pageid=0〉,2003年。
    John Sudworth,〈新疆「再教育營」:探尋維吾爾「思想轉化營」內的真相〉,《BBC News中文》,〈https://www.bbc.com/zhongwen/trad/chinese-news-48718848〉,2019年。
    Kai Schultz,〈無力償還債務,斯里蘭卡將戰略港口移交中國〉,《紐約時報中文網》,〈https://cn.nytimes.com/world/20171213/sri-lanka-china-port/zh-hant/〉,2017年。
    王兆陽,〈美國前國防部長卡特訪台 「台灣旅行法」生效後首次〉,《香港01》,〈https://reurl.cc/K62W2p〉,2018年。
    朱明,〈川普政府對台軍售2018年啟動 先買重型魚雷與汰換手槍〉,《上報》,〈https://www.upmedia.mg/news_info.php?SerialNo=23874〉,2017年。
    羊正鈺,〈川普年終再簽《亞洲再保證法》,2018年讓北京跳腳的那些「友台法案」〉,《The News Lens關鍵評論網》,〈https://www.thenewslens.com/article/111204〉,2019年。
    羊正鈺,〈美國批准對台軍售685億M1A2戰車與飛彈,中國外交部:立即撤回〉,《The News Lens 關鍵評論網》,〈https://www.thenewslens.com/article/120385〉,2019年。
    余杰,〈余杰:擁抱熊貓派的最後哀鳴〉,《上報》,〈https://www.upmedia.mg/news_info.php?SerialNo=66784〉,2019年。
    吳迪,〈劉鶴與商務部先後放話 中國為9月赴美設前提〉,《香港01》,〈https://reurl.cc/722mbQ〉,2019年。
    呂伊萱,〈AIT證實有陸戰隊進駐 學者:美方表態支持台灣〉,《自由時報》,〈https://news.ltn.com.tw/news/politics/breakingnews/2748315https://news.ltn.com.tw/news/politics/breakingnews/2748315〉,2019年。
    李書良,〈強大超乎預期的中國正迎面走來〉,《韓國中央日報》,〈https://chinese.joins.com/gb/article.aspx?art_id=51936&category=002005〉,2010年。
    李魚,〈越南再次要求中國撤回南海石油勘探船〉,《德國之聲》,〈https://www.dw.com/zh/%E8%B6%8A%E5%8D%97%E5%86%8D%E6%AC%A1%E8%A6%81%E6%B1%82%E4%B8%AD%E5%9B%BD%E6%92%A4%E5%9B%9E%E5%8D%97%E6%B5%B7%E7%9F%B3%E6%B2%B9%E5%8B%98%E6%8E%A2%E8%88%B9/a-49698353〉,2019年,。
    林祖偉,〈香港反送中100天:如何從遊行變成暴力衝突?〉,《BBC News中文》,〈https://www.bbc.com/zhongwen/trad/extra/Fy2CQzQkHZ/hong-kong-protests-100-days-on〉,2019年。
    邱莉燕,〈手機、電視都是監控器 雪亮工程10秒看穿你是誰〉,《遠見》,〈https://www.gvm.com.tw/article.html?id=55075〉,2018年。
    孫韻,〈點評中國:美國大選中的中國「結」〉,《BBC News中文》,〈https://www.bbc.com/zhongwen/trad/focus_on_china/2016/05/160523_cr_usa_election〉,2016年。
    細川倫太郎,〈日美歐提交WTO改革案〉,《日經中文網》,〈https://zh.cn.nikkei.com/politicsaeconomy/politicsasociety/33052-2018-11-13-15-38-27.html〉,2018年。
    郭育仁,〈美日防衛合作指針之可能走向〉,《台北論壇》,〈http://140.119.184.164/view/168.php〉,2014年。
    陳品潔,〈美參院通過2020國防授權法 美軍艦「常態巡航」台海〉,《上報》,〈https://www.upmedia.mg/news_info.php?SerialNo=66218〉,2019年。
    揭仲,〈美台軍售案公布,打開台灣自製潛艦20年僵局〉,《端傳媒》,〈https://theinitium.com/article/20180418-taiwan-submarine/〉,2018年。
    揭仲,〈揭仲專欄:兩個值得關注的台美軍事交流動向〉,《風傳媒》,〈https://www.storm.mg/article/1335521〉,2019年。
    斯影,〈中美關係危機破局:數百名美方 “中國通” 簽《中國不是敵人》公開信的背後〉,《BBC News中文》,〈https://www.bbc.com/zhongwen/simp/world-48947023〉,2019年。
    黃惠華,〈台灣在「印度-太平洋」大戰略的角色〉,《自由時報》,〈http://talk.ltn.com.tw/article/breakingnews/2296421〉,2017年。
    葉靖斯,〈南海鑽油台:越南指責中國船艇故意衝撞〉,《BBC News中文》,〈https://www.bbc.com/zhongwen/trad/china/2014/05/140507_vietnam_china_oil〉,2014年。
    童振源,〈評柯林頓中國政策演說及中美關係〉,《聯合報》,〈http://webcache.googleusercontent.com/search?q=cache:ucZiMHxJV2YJ:www3.nccu.edu.tw/~ctung/Documents/a42.doc+&cd=1&hl=zh-TW&ct=clnk&gl=tw〉,1998年。
    赫海威,〈南華早報會變成北京的宣傳工具嗎?〉,《紐約時報中文網》,〈https://cn.nytimes.com/china/20180402/south-china-morning-post-hong-kong-alibaba/zh-hant/〉,2018年。
    鄭仲嵐,〈特朗普親自簽署《台灣旅行法》中美台關係進入微妙期〉,《BBC News中文》,〈https://www.bbc.com/zhongwen/trad/chinese-news-43440429〉,2018年。
    盧永山,〈130位美議員施壓,要美逼人民幣升值〉,《自由時報》,〈http://www.taiwanus.net/news/news/2010/201003161502291008.html〉,2010年。
    簡嘉宏,〈川普簽署2018國防授權法 美方將邀台灣參與多國空軍紅旗軍演〉,《上報》,〈https://www.upmedia.mg/news_info.php?SerialNo=31069〉,2017年。
    顏慧欣,〈美中貿易戰開打?川普「301條款」制裁命令的背後意涵〉,《The News Lens關鍵評論網》,〈https://www.thenewslens.com/article/93422〉2018年。
    羅苑韶,〈中國大舉發展太空計畫 美認真視為敵手〉,《中央社》,〈https://www.cna.com.tw/news/aopl/201901060178.aspx〉,2019年。

    二、英文部分
    (一) 政府出版品
    Congressional Research Service. “China-U.S. Aircraft Collision Incident of April 2001: Assessments and Policy Implications,” 〈https://fas.org/sgp/crs/row/RL30946.pdf〉, 2001.
    U.S. National Security Council. “The National Security Strategy of the United States of America,” 〈https://georgewbush-whitehouse.archives.gov/nsc/nss/2002/〉, 2002.
    United States Department of Defense. “Joint Operational Access Concept,”〈https://dod.defense.gov/Portals/1/Documents/pubs/JOAC_Jan%202012_Signed.pdf〉, 2012.
    United States Department of Defense. “Quadrennial Defense Review,” 〈https://archive.defense.gov/qdr/QDR%20as%20of%2029JAN10%201600.pdf〉, 2010.
    United States Department of Defense. “Joint Operational Access Concept,” 〈https://dod.defense.gov/Portals/1/Documents/pubs/JOAC_Jan%202012_Signed.pdf〉, 2012.
    U.S. National Security Council. “The National Security Strategy of the United States of America,” 〈https://www.whitehouse.gov/wp-content/uploads/2017/12/NSS-Final-12-18-2017-0905.pdf〉, 2017.
    The United States. “An Undifferentiated WTO: Self-Declared Development Status Risks Institutional Irrelevance,” 〈https://www.southcentre.int/wp-content/uploads/2019/02/USA-submission-Self-Declared-Development-Status-Risks-Institutional-Irrelevance-WTGCW757-Jan-2019.pdf〉, 2019.
    Defense Innovation Unit. “China’s Technology Transfer Strategy: How Chinese Investments in Emerging Technology Enable a Strategic Competitor to Access the Crown Jewels of U.S. Innovation,” 〈https://admin.govexec.com/media/diux_chinatechnologytransferstudy_jan_2018_(1).pdf〉, 2018.
    United States Trade Representative. “2019 Trade Policy Agenda and 2018 Annual Report,” 〈https://ustr.gov/sites/default/files/2019_Trade_Policy_Agenda_and_2018_Annual_Report.pdf〉, 2018.
    U.S. Department of Defense. “Sustaining U.S. Global Leadership: Priorities for 21st Century Defense,” 〈https://archive.defense.gov/news/Defense_Strategic_Guidance.pdf〉, 2012.
    US-China Economic and Security Review Commission. “(2009-2017) Report to Congress of the U.S.-China Economic and Security Review Commission.”2009-2017.

    (二) 專書
    2019 Business Climate Survey. Beijing:American Chamber of Commerce in China, 2019.
    Bader, Jeffrey A. Obama and China`s Rise: An Insider`s Account of America`s Asia Strategy. Washington, D.C.:Brookings Institution Press, 2012.
    Bauman, Zygmunt. Globalization: The Human Consequences. New York:Columbia University Press, 1998.
    Blackwill, Robert D. and Jennifer M. Harris. War by Other Means: Geoeconomics and Statecraft. Massachusetts:Belknap Press, 2016.
    Campbell, Kurt. The Pivot: The Future of American Statecraft in Asia. New York:Hachette Book Group, 2016.
    Cardenal, Juan Pablo, Jacek Kucharczyk, Grigorij Mesežnikov, Gabriela Pleschová. Sharp Power: Rising Authoritarian Influence. National Endowment for Democracy, Washington D.C, 2017.
    Clementi, Marco, Matteo Dian and Barbara Pisciotta. US Foreign Policy in a Challenging World: Building Order on Shifting Foundations. New York:Springer Publishing, 2017.
    Diamond, Larry, Robert Daly, Elizabeth Economy, Karl Eikenberry, Donald Emmerson, Francis Fukuyama, Bonnie Glaser, Kyle Hutzler, Markos Kounalakis, Winston Lord, Evan Medeiros, James Mulvenon, Andrew J. Nathan, Minxin Pei, Jeffrey Phillips, John Pomfret, Orville Schell, David Shambaugh, Susan Shirk, Robert Sutter, Glenn Tiffert, Ezra Vogel, Christopher Walker, Anne -Marie Brady, Timoth y Cheek, John Fit zgerald, John Garnaut, Timothy Gartonash, Francois Godement, Bilahari Kausikan, Richard McGregor, Eva Pils, Volker Stanzel. China`s Influence & American Interests: Promoting Constructive Vigilance. Report of the working group, Hoover Institution, 2018.
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    Description: 碩士
    國立政治大學
    外交學系
    106253009
    Source URI: http://thesis.lib.nccu.edu.tw/record/#G0106253009
    Data Type: thesis
    DOI: 10.6814/NCCU201901316
    Appears in Collections:[外交學系] 學位論文

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