Loading...
|
Please use this identifier to cite or link to this item:
https://nccur.lib.nccu.edu.tw/handle/140.119/125930
|
| Title: | 中美貿易戰對台灣與巴西貿易關係的影響
The influence of the Sino-US trade war on the Brazil-Taiwan trade relationship |
| Authors: | 宋凱莉
Leite, Kelly Santana |
| Contributors: | 薛健吾
Chienwu Hsueh
宋凱莉
Kelly Santana Leite |
| Keywords: | 中美貿易戰中
美國
中國
巴西
臺灣
Sino-US trade war
USA
China
Brazil
Taiwan |
| Date: | 2019 |
| Issue Date: | 2019-09-05 17:31:51 (UTC+8) |
| Abstract: | 在當前中美貿易戰中，許多國家都遭受到波及。除了中美兩國直接受到衝擊，其他
國家間接地也受到了不少影響。 然而有些國家得到的影響比較正面；自家貿易因而得到
改善，本論文即在探討這兩大問題。首先，中美貿易是否會影響巴西與台灣的貿易關係，
為了找出答案，筆者分析了 2007 年到 2018 年間的貿易值及交易產品間之關係。再者，本
論文分析美國總統川普對中國發動的經濟制裁策略是否有效，因為在某種程度上川普的策
略影響了中國的行為，但中國並沒有全然被牽著鼻子走。結論是中美貿易戰的確影響了巴
西與台灣間的貿易關係，但此結果並非中國有意造成。貿易戰使巴西到中國的出口量快速
增加，卻使巴西到台灣的出口量大大減少，然而這兩件事之間似乎沒有人為操作，僅是因
果關係的影響，但這個議題還有待後人更深入的研究。
In the current Sino-US trade war many have been the consequences of this war, which
didn’t only affect the two main nations but even if indirectly it has caused a spill over effect on
many other nations. However, some might have had a more positive consequence than others in
which it improved their trade and this research focused on two main puzzles to be explored. First,
whether the Sino-US trade would affect Brazil-Taiwan trade relation and to obtain such
information, trade value and traded products were analysed over the period of 2007-2018. Second,
to find out if Donald Trump’s strategy to threat China by imposing the economic sanction on China
was successful, which happened to be to certain extent as it influenced China’s behaviour but
didn’t cause China to accept Trump’s imposition. As a conclusion, the Sino-US trade war had an
impact on Brazil-Taiwan trade relationship but it wasn’t intentionally caused by China, but it
happened to Brazil’s exportation to China to rapidly increase and Brazil’s exportation to Taiwan
suffering a great decrease but there seems not to be any direct purpose for it to happen but just a
cause-effect relation which should be explored more deeply in future research. |
| Reference: | Allen, Susan H. (2005) The Determinants of Economic Sanctions Success and Failure.
International Interactions 31(2):117–138.
Allen, Susan H. (2008) Political Institutions and Constrained Response to Economic
Sanctions. Foreign Policy Analysis 4(3):255–274.
Baipai, P. (2019). Investopedia. Retrieved May 21, 2019, from The World`s Top 20 Economies:
https://www.investopedia.com/insights/worlds-top-economies/
Bapat, N., Heinrich, T., Kobayashi, Y., & Morgan, T. (2013). Determinants of Sanctioins Effectiveness:
Sensitive Analysis Using New Data. Empirical and Theoritical Reseach in International
Relations, 39:1, pp. 79-98.
BBC. (2018, Sep 18). US-China trade row: What has happened so far? Retrieved October 12, 2018,
from BBC News: https://www.bbc.com/news/business-44529600
Bob, B. (2018). Trump`s trade war with China is intensifying — here`s what tariffs are, and how they
could affect you. Retrieved December 31, 2018, from Business Insider:
https://www.businessinsider.my/trump-tariffs-what-is-a-tariff-meaning-for-pricesconsumer-
2018-3/
Bolsonaro, C. (2018). Pequeno resumo sobre Bolsonaro na Ásia (Japão, Coréia do Sul e Taiwan).
Brazil. Retrieved February 20, 2019, from https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=keSDkJSUlZ0
Brasil. (2019). Mensagem do Presidente ao Congresso Nacional. Retrieved May 19, 2019, from Portal
Oficial da Presidência da República do Brasil:
http://www2.planalto.gov.br/mensagemdopresidente/MensagemaoCongresso2019.pdf
Bureau of Trade - Taiwan. (2019). Trade Statistics. Retrieved May 20, 2019, from Bureau of Foreign
Trade: https://cus93.trade.gov.tw/FSCE030F/FSCE030F
Bureau, U. S. (2008). Trade in Goods with China. Retrieved November 13, 2018, from United States
Census Bureau: https://www.census.gov/foreign-trade/balance/c5700.html
Burton, G. (2018, November 9). What President Bolsonaro Means for China-Brazil Relations.
Retrieved August 4, 2019, from The Diplomat: https://thediplomat.com/2018/11/whatpresident-
bolsonaro-means-for-china-brazil-relations/
Chen, D. (2018). The US-China Trade War Has No Winners—Yet. Retrieved January 21, 2019, from
The diplomat: https://thediplomat.com/2018/10/the-us-china-trade-war-has-no-winnersyet/
Chin, K., Frank, J., & Silvertein, S. (2018). The legendary economist who predicted the housing crisis
says the US will win the trade war. Retrieved October 3, 2018, from Business insider:
https://www.businessinsider.com/gary-shilling-legendary-economist-trade-war-outlooksays-
us-will-win-2018-10
Elmer, K. (2018). Why the China-US trade war truce could be a raw deal for Brazil’s soybean farmers.
Retrieved December 20, 2018, from South China Morning post:
https://www.scmp.com/news/china/diplomacy/article/2176373/why-china-us-trade-wartruce-
could-be-raw-deal-brazils-soybean
Hadfield, F., Holleyman, R., Marx, A., & Toubia, S. (2018). USTR Finalizes List 2 of Section 301 Tariffs
on Chinese Products. Retrieved October 15, 2018, from Crowell & Moring:
https://www.cmtradelaw.com/2018/08/ustr-finalizes-list-2-of-section-301-tariffs
Hadfield, F., Marx, A., Brew, J., & Goetz, E. (2018). USTR Publishes Notice Formalizing 10% Tariffs on
Section 301 List 3 on Sept. 24. CM’s Unofficial List of the Affected HTS Codes Provided Here.
Retrieved October 10, 2018, from Crowell & Moring: from
https://www.cmtradelaw.com/2018/09/ustr-publishes-notice-formalizing-10-tariffs-onsection-
301-list-3-on-sept-24-cms-unofficial-list-of-the-affected-hts-codes-provided-here/
Hadfield, F.; Gao, Y.; Goetz, E. (2018). China’s Retaliatory Tariffs on $60 Billion in U.S. Goods – List of
Affected HTS Subheadings. Retrieved October 11, 2018, from Crowell & Moring.:
https://www.cmtradelaw.com/2018/08/china-threatens-new-retaliatory-tariffs-on-60-
billion-in-u-s-goods-releases-list-of-affected-hts-subheadings/
Huang, C. (2018). China will lose trade war with the us, then things will get really nasty. Retrieved
December 18, 2018, from South China Morning News: https://www.scmp.com/weekasia/
opinion/article/2166006/china-will-lose-trade-war-us-then-things-will-get-really-nasty
Itamaraty. (2018). People’s Republic of China. Retrieved December 13, 2018, from Ministry of
Foreign Affairs Brazil.: http://www.itamaraty.gov.br/en/ficha-pais/5988-people-s-republicof-
china
Johnston, M. (2015). China`s Top Trading Partners. Retrieved November 13, 2018, from
Investopedia: https://www.investopedia.com/articles/investing/092815/chinas-top-tradingpartners.
asp
Knoema. (2019). Knoema Corporation. Retrieved May 20, 2019, from World GDP ranking 2018- GDP
by country – Data and Charts: https://knoema.com/nwnfkne/world-gdp-ranking-2018-gdpby-
country-data-and-charts
Koty, A. (2017). Trump’s China Visit: What to Expect. Retrieved October 15, 2018, from China
Briefing: https://www.china-briefing.com/news/trumps-china-visit-expect/
Koty, A. C., & Wong, D. (2019). The US-China Trade War: A Timeline. Retrieved May 20, 2019, from
China Briefing: https://www.china-briefing.com/news/the-us-china-trade-war-a-timeline/
Lacalle, D. (2018). Nuclear Option? China Has Already Lost A Possible Trade War. Retrieved January
1, 2019, from Daniel Lacalle: https://www.dlacalle.com/en/nuclear-option-china-hasalready-
lost-a-possible-trade-war/
Liu, D. (2016). The trading relationship between Taiwan and the United States: Current trends and
the outlook for the future. Retrieved October 25, 2018, from Brookings:
https://www.brookings.edu/opinions/the-trading-relationship-between-taiwan-and-theunited-
states-current-trends-and-the-outlook-for-the-future/
MAPA. (2015). Intercâmbio Comercial do Agronegócio - Taiwan. Govermental report.
MDIC. (2019). Comex Vis: Países Parceiros . Retrieved May 3, 2019, from Minitério da Economia -
Indústria, Comércio Exterior e Serviços: http://www.mdic.gov.br/comercioexterior/
estatisticas-de-comercio-exterior/comex-vis/frame-pais?pais=twn
MDIC. (2019). Comex Vis: Países Parceiros (China). Retrieved May 3, 2019, from Minitério da
Economia - Indústria, Comércio Exterior e Serviços: http://www.mdic.gov.br/comercioexterior/
estatisticas-de-comercio-exterior/comex-vis/frame-pais?pais=chn
MDIC. (2019). Comex Vis: Países Parceiros (Estados Unidos). Retrieved May 3, 2019, from Minitério
da Economia - Indústria, Comércio Exterior e Serviços: http://www.mdic.gov.br/comercioexterior/
estatisticas-de-comercio-exterior/comex-vis/frame-pais?pais=usa
Ministry of Finance, R. (2018). Trade Statistics Database. Retrieved October 30, 2018, from Ministry
of Finance, R.O.C.:
http://web02.mof.gov.tw/njswww/webproxy.aspx?sys=100&funid=edefjsptgl
MOEA. (2018). Trade Statistics Database. Retrieved October 3, 2018, from The Bureau of Foreign
Trade: https://cus93.trade.gov.tw/FSCE020F/FSCE020F
MOFA. (2014). Foreign Policy Report, 8th Congress of the Legislative Yuan, 5th Session. Retrieved
November 11, 2018, from Ministry of Foreign Affrais Republic of China (Taiwan).:
https://www.mofa.gov.tw/en/News_Content3.aspx?n=4BAF9BD5400A05D9&sms=BA5E856
472F10901&s=C446ABAFEFD73AD2
Morgan, S. (2018, September 20). Brazil solar entices Taiwanese investment. Retrieved August 4,
2019, from Taiwan News: https://www.taiwannews.com.tw/en/news/3534461
Mullen, J. (2018). China: The US has started `the biggest trade war` in history. Retrieved January 15,
2019, from CNN Business: https://money.cnn.com/2018/07/06/news/economy/us-chinatrade-
war-tariffs/index.html
Navin A. Bapat, Tobias Heinrich, Yoshiharu Kobayashi & T. Clifton Morgan. (2013). Determinants of
Sanctions Effectiveness: Sensitivity Analysis Using New Data. International Interactions, 79-
98.
Nie, W. (2018). Why America would lose a trade war with China. Retrieved January 21, 2019, from
IMD: https://www.imd.org/research-knowledge/articles/why-america-would-lose-a-tradewar-
with-china/
OEC. (2016). What does the United States export to China? (2016). Retrieved December 15, 2018,
from The Observatory of Economic Complexity:
https://atlas.media.mit.edu/en/visualize/tree_map/hs92/export/usa/chn/show/2016/
OEC. (2016). Which countries export Soybeans? (2016). Retrieved December 21, 2018, from The
Observatory of Economic Complexity:
https://atlas.media.mit.edu/en/visualize/geo_map/hs92/export/show/all/1201/2016/
OEC. (2018). Countries profile. Retrieved December 20, 2019, from Observatory of Economic
Complexity: https://atlas.media.mit.edu/en/profile/country/aze/
OEC. (2019). United States. Retrieved May 1, 2019, from The Observatory of Economic Complexity:
https://atlas.media.mit.edu/en/profile/country/usa/
Oktay, F. (2018). 3 Reasons Why Trump Can`t Win a Trade War With China. Retrieved January 21,
2019, from The Diplomat: https://thediplomat.com/2018/11/3-reasons-why-trump-cantwin-
a-trade-war-with-china/
Parker, C. (2019). A Chinese economist explains what we get wrong about the trade war. Retrieved
March 3, 2019, from World Economic Forum:
https://www.weforum.org/agenda/2019/02/a-chinese-economist-explains-what-we-getwrong-
about-the-trade-war/
Pettinger, T. (2017, November 10). Trade diversion. Retrieved August 3, 2019, from Econimics help:
https://www.economicshelp.org/blog/glossary/trade-diversion/
Sandgren, M. (2008). China 2008: The Global Financial Crisis. Retrieved October 20, 2018, from China
Digital Times: https://chinadigitaltimes.net/2008/12/2008-financial-crisis-and-china/
Taipei Times. (2019, June 27). Taiwan Business Quick Take. Retrieved August 5, 2019, from Taipei
Times: http://www.taipeitimes.com/News/biz/archives/2019/06/27/2003717638
Taiwan - Trade Agreement. (2018). Retrieved December 20, 2018, from Export.gov:
https://www.export.gov/article?id=Taiwan-Trade-Agreements
Taiwan. (2018). The Official Website of the Republic of China. Retrieved December 30, 2018, from
Economy: https://www.taiwan.gov.tw/content_7.php
Teng, P. (2018). Taiwan wants to sign free trade deal with US: foreign minister. Retrieved October
10, 2018, from Taiwan News: https://www.taiwannews.com.tw/en/news/3529054
The Balance. (2019). US Trade Deficit With China and Why It`s So High. Retrieved May 30, 2019, from
The Balance: https://www.thebalance.com/u-s-china-trade-deficit-causes-effects-andsolutions-
3306277
The Global Economy. (2019). Trade Diversion. Retrieved August 3, 2019, from The Global Economy:
https://www.theglobaleconomy.com/glossary/article/139/
Trade Map. (2018). Bilateral trade between Taipei, Chinese and China Product: TOTAL All products.
Retrieved May 15, 2019, from Trade Map: https://www.trademap.org/Bilateral_TS.aspx
Trade value. (2019). Retrieved May 17, 2019, from Bureau of Trade - Trade Statistics:
https://cus93.trade.gov.tw/FSCE030F/FSCE030F
USTR. (2017). Brazil. Retrieved October 2, 2018, from Office of the United States Trade
Representative.: https://ustr.gov/countries-regions/americas/brazil
Vaswani, K. (2018). US-China trade war: The countries caught in the crossfire. Retrieved December
20, 2018, from BBC business: https://www.bbc.com/news/business-45247000
Wallenfeldt, J. (2018). Jair Bolsonaro - Brazilian Politician. Retrieved February 20, 2019, from
Encyclopædia Britannica: https://www.britannica.com/biography/Jair-Bolsonaro
Whallen, C. (2019). China Has Already Lost the Trade War. Retrieved May 20, 2019, from The
American Conservative: https://www.theamericanconservative.com/articles/china-hasalready-
lost-the-trade-war/
Workman, D. (2018). China’s Top 10 Imports. Retrieved November 21, 2018, from World Top
Exports: http://www.worldstopexports.com/chinas-top-10-imports/
Workman, D. (2019, April 6). China’s Top Trading Partners. Retrieved May 3, 2019, from World`s Top
Exports: http://www.worldstopexports.com/chinas-top-import-partners/
WTO. (n.d.). China and the WTO. Retrieved October 20, 2018, from World Trade Organization:
https://www.wto.org/english/thewto_e/countries_e/china_e.htm |
| Description: | 碩士
國立政治大學
國際研究英語碩士學位學程(IMPIS)
106862018 |
| Source URI: | http://thesis.lib.nccu.edu.tw/record/#G0106862018 |
| Data Type: | thesis |
| DOI: | 10.6814/NCCU201901077 |
| Appears in Collections: | [國際研究英語碩士學位學程] 學位論文
|
Files in This Item:
| File |
Size | Format | |
|---|
| 201801.pdf | 2083Kb | Adobe PDF2 | 303 | View/Open |
|
All items in 政大典藏 are protected by copyright, with all rights reserved.
|
