政大機構典藏-National Chengchi University Institutional Repository(NCCUR):Item 140.119/124802

政大典藏 > College of Commerce > International MBA > Theses > Item 140.119/124802

Please use this identifier to cite or link to this item: https://nccur.lib.nccu.edu.tw/handle/140.119/124802

Title:	時間序列模型於零售銷售預測的應用 An application of time series models to retail sales forecasting
Authors:	阮宣浩 Nguyen, Xuan-Hoa
Contributors:	莊皓鈞 Chuang, Howard 阮宣浩 Nguyen, Xuan-Hoa
Keywords:	預測時間序列模型訓練測試 Forecasting Time series Models Training Testing
Date:	2019
Issue Date:	2019-08-07 16:22:02 (UTC+8)
Abstract:	Nowadays, the retail industry is very competitive. Most companies in this industry are facing many problems to satisfy customers the most and to be the most efficient. One of the most important problems is to make sales forecasting. In the past, it is more up to experiences to make sales forecasting, therefore the accuracy is often not good. With the development of computer and AI, machine learning methods, in the present, it is easier and more accurate to make a forecast for sales. In this thesis, time series models are applied with the aid of R programming to make sales forecasting. Firstly, we go to understand the basic knowledge about time series models, then we take an example of forecasting sales for a retail shop to apply these methods, including average, naive, snaive, drift, exponential smoothing, ARIMA, dynamic regression models. In the end, we come up with a conclusion about what we did in this thesis.
Reference:	Brown, R. G. (1959). Statistical forecasting for inventory control. McGraw/Hill. Galit Shmueli, Kenneth C.Lichtendahl Jr (2015) Practical time series forecasting with R: a hand-on guide. Axelrod Schnall Publishers. Holt, C. E. (1957). Forecasting seasonals and trends by exponentially weighted averages (O.N.R. Memorandum No. 52). Carnegie Institute of Technology, Pittsburgh USA. https://www.kaggle.com/c/favorita-grocery-sales-forecasting/overview/description Hyndman, R.J., & Athanasopoulos, G. (2018) Forecasting: principles and practice, 2nd edition, OTexts: Melbourne, Australia. OTexts.com/fpp2 Wickham, H. (2016). ggplot2: Elegant graphics for data analysis (2nd ed). Springer. Winters, P. R. (1960). Forecasting sales by exponentially weighted moving averages. Management Science, 6, 324–342.
Description:	碩士國立政治大學國際經營管理英語碩士學位學程(IMBA) 106933064
Source URI:	http://thesis.lib.nccu.edu.tw/record/#G0106933064
Data Type:	thesis
DOI:	10.6814/NCCU201900291
Appears in Collections:	[International MBA] Theses

Files in This Item:

There are no files associated with this item.

社群 sharing

Loading...