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| Title: | 卷積神經網路結合投資組合理論之交易策略實證研究： 以台灣股市為例
The Empirical Research of Trading Strategies for Convolutional Neural Network and Portfolio Theory on Taiwan Stock Market |
| Authors: | 莊承勳
Chuang, Cheng-Hsun |
| Contributors: | 廖四郎
Liao, Szu-Lang
莊承勳
Chuang, Cheng-Hsun |
| Keywords: | 量化交易
卷積神經網路
投資組合
平均-變異數分析
動能交易 |
| Date: | 2019 |
| Issue Date: | 2019-08-07 16:10:36 (UTC+8) |
| Abstract: | 本研究從台灣前60大市值比上市公司中，挑出49家公司為樣本，蒐集2006-2018間的資料，採用技術指標作為變數，以卷積神經網路預測為選股策略，選取投資組合成分股， 再利用「平均－變異數」分析配置權重，並根據不同風險趨避程度，建構不同投組。結果卷積神經網路的投資策略，在訓練樣本期間(2010～2016年)內的績效表現相當好，但應用在樣本外期間(2008～2009年，2017～2018年)則表現不佳。若使用此種交易策略與簡單動能策略比較，則動能策略建構的投資組合能在訓練樣本外期間表現的較佳。
This Research selects 49 companies from the top 60 companies in Taiwan as a sample, collects stock data from 2006 to 2018. Choose technical indicators as variables, and use convolutional neural network prediction as a stock selection strategy to form a portfolio. In the selected stocks, the “Mean-Variance Analysis” is used to allocate the asset weights, and different investment groups are constructed according to different risk aversion levels. The result of this study shows that: the investment strategy of the convolutional neural network is quite good during the training period (2010~2016) of data. However, the strategy make negative return during the out-of-sample period (2008-2009, 2017~2018). With this performance, compare to a simple momentum strategy, the momentum portfolio can perform better during the out-of-sample period. |
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| Description: | 碩士
國立政治大學
金融學系
106352017 |
| Source URI: | http://thesis.lib.nccu.edu.tw/record/#G0106352017 |
| Data Type: | thesis |
| DOI: | 10.6814/NCCU201900301 |
| Appears in Collections: | [金融學系] 學位論文
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