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| Title: | 不動產情緒指數與房市之關聯性
The relationship between sentiment and real estate market |
| Authors: | 蘇子涵
Su, Tzu-Han |
| Contributors: | 陳明吉
蘇子涵
Su, Tzu-Han |
| Keywords: | 房地產市場
情緒指數
主成份法
交易量
議價空間
流動天數
Real estate market
sentiment
Principal component method
Trading volume
Price concessions
Time on the market |
| Date: | 2019 |
| Issue Date: | 2019-08-07 16:04:26 (UTC+8) |
| Abstract: | 房屋擁有投資與消費雙重特性，再加上不動產市場的低流動性以及高交易成本均導致房價不能像股票價格一樣快速反應信息的變化，種種不動產市場的特性以及套利限制使其更容易受到情緒的影響。因此本研究採用直接測量及間接測量兩種方法編制不動產情緒指數，直接測量方面是使用2008年到2017年的住宅需求動向問卷調查資料來編制情緒指數。間接測量方面則是使用2007年到2017年市場上的交易資料，並採用主成份分析法來組成情緒指數。本研究主要探討不動產情緒指數與房地產市場因子之關係，房市因子包含房價、交易量、議價空間與流動天數。研究結果顯示直接測量情緒指數顯著影響房價、交易量以及流動天數。直接測量情緒指數與房價呈顯著的正相關，證實購屋者情緒的上漲會伴隨較高的房價變化率，且會使賣屋人尋求更好的售屋時機，從而拉長流動天數並降低交易量。同時未來情緒指數可提前一季反映不動產市場的改變，可視為房價的領先指標。間接測量方面，兩種不同代理變數組成的間接情緒皆與房價指數變化率呈正相關，且與議價空間呈顯著負相關。意味著購屋者情緒的上漲會影響房價的提升，並使購屋者在交易雙方的立場趨於弱勢，使其議價空間縮小。另外間接測量編制方法一的組成方式較編制方法二良好，編制方法一所採用的代理變數較能良好的捕捉市場購屋者情緒。
Housing has the dual characteristics of both investment and consumption, coupled with the low liquidity and high transaction costs in the housing market, housing prices cannot respond to changes in information as quickly as stock prices. The characteristics and restrictions of housing market make them more susceptible to sentiment. Therefore, our study used two methods, including direct measurement and indirect measurement to compile market sentiment. The direct measurement used the 2008-2017 housing demand surveys’ questionnaire data to compile the market sentiment. As for the indirect measurement, we used the 2007-2017 transaction data from many market and applied principal component analysis method to form the market sentiment. This study mainly discussed the relationship between housing market sentiment and housing market, including house price, trading volume, price concessions and time on the market. The results showed that the direct measurement of the sentiment significantly affects house prices, trading volume and time on the market. It significantly and positively correlated with house prices, confirming that the increase in home buyers` sentiment will be accompanied by high future housing price, and will allow sellers to seek better time to sell, thus lengthening time on the market and reducing trading volume. In addition, future sentiment can reflect the changes in the real estate market one quarter ahead of time, which can be regarded as a leading indicator of house prices and time on the market. In terms of indirect measurement, both indirect sentiments are positively correlated with house price index and have a significant negative correlation with bargaining space. This means that higher sentiment will affect the increase in house prices, and weaken the buyers` bargaining power in the trading, leading to the reduction in price concessions. In addition, the indirect measurement composition method 1 is better than the composition method 2, the proxy variable used in method 1 can better capture the mood of market buyers. |
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| Description: | 碩士
國立政治大學
財務管理學系
106357019 |
| Source URI: | http://thesis.lib.nccu.edu.tw/record/#G0106357019 |
| Data Type: | thesis |
| DOI: | 10.6814/NCCU201900257 |
| Appears in Collections: | [財務管理學系] 學位論文
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