政大機構典藏-National Chengchi University Institutional Repository(NCCUR):Item 140.119/124214
English  |  正體中文  |  简体中文  |  Post-Print筆數 : 27 |  全文筆數/總筆數 : 113325/144300 (79%)
造訪人次 : 51166532      線上人數 : 887
RC Version 6.0 © Powered By DSPACE, MIT. Enhanced by NTU Library IR team.
搜尋範圍 查詢小技巧：
  • 您可在西文檢索詞彙前後加上"雙引號"，以獲取較精準的檢索結果
  • 若欲以作者姓名搜尋，建議至進階搜尋限定作者欄位，可獲得較完整資料
    •  進階搜尋


    請使用永久網址來引用或連結此文件: https://nccur.lib.nccu.edu.tw/handle/140.119/124214


    題名: 論城投債何去何從：以違約風險為例
    Where is the urban construction investment bonds going: taking the risk of default as an example
    作者: 蔡震
    Cai, Zhen
    貢獻者: 李文傑
    王信實
    Lee, Wen-Chieh
    Wang, Shinn-Shyr
    蔡震
    Cai, Zhen
    關鍵詞: 城投債
    晉升錦標賽
    官員換届
    房價中介
    日期: 2019
    上傳時間: 2019-07-01 11:03:16 (UTC+8)
    摘要: 本研究使用多種方法，對中國大陸房價調控政策密集出臺和地方官員晉升錦標賽背景下的城投債券違約風險變動進行量化分析。研究整理了城投債券的歷史發展脈絡及其詳盡的風險關聯，並由此提煉或有風險誘因。進一步聚焦35個地級市，2010年至2016年間，城投債風險溢價水準受房價變動與地方官員換屆的實際影響。模型運算結果得出：首先，城投債風險溢價與地方政府財政赤字率顯著呈現正相關關係，城投平臺與地方政府間的密切關聯實際並未應2014年政策要求而徹底切斷。其次，房價變動顯著影響城投債風險溢價水準，呈反向變動，該結論佐證了地方政府運用土地融資的邏輯合理性。最後，城投債風險溢價水準受地方官員換屆的負面衝擊，被官員履新對房價的推動所掩蓋。上述結果說明在難解的財政壓力下，現階段地方政府有動機通過房價和城投債信用風險間的互相回饋，維繫地方發展。但也應認識到，它們之間的關係在規範地方政府債務和房價調控的趨勢下不甚穩固。
    This research intends to bridge the links among heating housing bubbles, local fiscal imbalances and policy instabilities. By considering the grand tax reallocation starting from the 1994 Chinese tax reform, the Chinese local government has founded the local Chengtou platform to make up for the local fiscal balance with collaterals of land usage rights provided by local governments. It is generally agreed in the literature that the heating up competition among Chinese local agencies on growth target have shaped the escalating fiscal imbalance among Chinese local areas. We then have a theoretic guess that housing price correlates with the issue scale of Chengtou bonds. To prove the above hypothesis, we have hand-collected a dataset delineating Chengtou bonds, housing prices and the replacement of city mayors. The constructed detailed dataset has lent support to our empirical evidence to the proposed hypotheses. We then verify that the skyrocketing stock of Chengtou bonds joint with future declining trend of housing price may cause the follow-up foreseeable default on expired Chengtou bonds. This result is also sustainable by the replacement of city mayors having weak local attachment and eager to be promoted by achieving fabulous economic growth performance.
    參考文獻: 王敘果, 張廣婷, and 沈紅波. "財政分權, 晉升激勵與預算軟約束." 財政研究 3 (2012): 13.
    王雅齡, and 王力結. "地方債形成中的信號博弈: 房地產價格——兼論新預算法的影響." 經濟學動態 4 (2015): 59-68.
    毛捷, and徐軍偉. "中國地方政府債務問題研究的現實基礎——制度變遷、統計方法與重要事實." 財政研究 1 (2019): 3-23
    方紅星, 施繼坤, and 張廣寶. "產權性質, 資訊品質與公司債定價." 金融研究 4 (2013): 170-182.
    司海平, 魏建, and 劉小鴿. "土地財政與地方政府債務陷阱——基於發債動機與償債能力的雙重視角." 經濟經緯 33.4 (2016): 155-160.
    朱瑩, and 王健. "市場約束能夠降低地方債風險溢價嗎?——來自城投債市場的證據." 金融研究 456.6 (2018): 56-72.
    劉偉, and 李連發. "地方政府融資平臺舉債的理論分析." 金融研究 5 (2013).
    劉娥平, and 施燕平. "盈餘管理, 公司債券融資成本與首次信用評級." 管理科學 2014 年 05 (2014): 91-103.
    齊天翔, and 陳瑞. "經濟增長, 房價水準與地方債規模." 《 深圳大學學報》(人文社科版) 33.4 (2016): 77-82.
    孫國偉, and 孫立堅. "地方財政搭便車, 財政貨幣承諾與地方債務治理." 世界經濟研究 2 (2013): 9-15.
    孫彬彬, and 高志剛. "城投債市場演進." 中國金融 12 (2018): 47-48.
    楊繼東, and 楊其靜. "保增長壓力, 刺激計畫與工業用地出讓." 經濟研究 1 (2016): 99-113.
    楊繼東, 楊其靜, and 劉凱. "以地融資與債務增長——基於地級市面板資料的經驗研究." 財貿經濟 2 (2018): 5.
    肖鵬, and 劉炳辰. "財政分權促進了城投債規模擴張嗎?*——來自中國的省級面板證據." 江淮論壇 281.01 (2017): 64.
    吳洵, and 俞喬. "地方政府債務風險溢價研究." 財政研究 1 (2017): 89-102.
    何平, and 金夢. "信用評級在中國債券市場的影響力." 金融研究4 (2010): 15-28.
    汪莉, and 陳詩一. "政府隱性擔保, 債務違約與利率決定." 金融研究 423.9 (2018): 66-81.
    張少輝, and 余泳澤. "土地出讓, 資源錯配與全要素生產率." 財經研究 2 (2019): 7.
    張莉, 年永威, and 劉京軍. "土地市場波動與地方債——以城投債為例." 經濟學 (季刊) 3 (2018): 12.
    陳菁, and 李建發. "財政分權, 晉升激勵與地方政府債務融資行為——基於城投債視角的省級面板經驗證據." 會計研究 1 (2015): 61-67.
    陳瑞, 葛成唯, and 傅強. "地方政府債務與房價的作用機制分析." 北京交通大學學報 (社會科學版) 17.01 (2018): 56.
    羅党論, and 佘國滿. "地方官員變更與地方債發行." 經濟研究 6 (2015): 131-146.
    金戈. "中國基礎設施與非基礎設施資本存量及其產出彈性估算." 經濟研究 5 (2016): 41-56.
    周黎安. "晉升博弈中政府官員的激勵與合作——兼論我國地方保護主義和重複建設問題長期存在的原因." 經濟研究 6.33 (2004): r40.
    周黎安. "中國地方官員的晉升錦標賽模式研究. " 經濟研究 7 (2007): 36-50.
    鄭思齊, et al. "以地生財, 以財養地」——中國特色城市建設投融資模式研究. " 經濟研究 8 (2014): 14-27.
    趙凱, and 劉成坤. "住房價格, 土地價格與地方政府行為." 統計研究 35.10 (2018): 15-27.
    施燕平, and 劉娥平. "產權性質、風險承擔與公司債券信用利差." 華東經濟管理 33.1 (2019): 119-128.
    韓立岩, et al. "中國市政債券信用風險與發債規模研究." 金融研究 2 (2003): 85-94.
    韓立岩, 牟暉, and 王哲兵. "市政債券的風險識別與控制策略." 管理世界 3 (2005): 58-66.
    韓鵬飛, and 胡奕明. "政府隱性擔保一定能降低債券的融資成本嗎?——關於國有企業和地方融資平臺債券的實證研究." 金融研究 3 (2015): 8.
    Ang, Andrew, Jennie Bai, and Hao Zhou. "The great wall of debt: Real estate, corruption, and Chinese local government credit spreads." Georgetown McDonough School of Business Research Paper 2603022 (2016): 15-57.
    Arellano, Cristina. "Default risk and income fluctuations in emerging economies." American Economic Review 98.3 (2008): 690-712.
    Bai, Chong-En, Chang-Tai Hsieh, and Zheng Michael Song. "Crony capitalism with Chinese characteristics." University of Chicago, working paper (2014): 39-58.
    Bai, Chong-En, Chang-Tai Hsieh, and Zheng Song. "Special Deals with Chinese Characteristics." NBER Macroeconomics Annual (2019).
    Baron, Reuben M., and David A. Kenny. "The moderator–mediator variable distinction in social psychological research: Conceptual, strategic, and statistical considerations." Journal of personality and social psychology 51.6 (1986): 1173.
    Bi, Huixin. "Sovereign default risk premia, fiscal limits, and fiscal policy." European Economic Review 56.3 (2012): 389-410.
    Chen, Hui, et al. "Quantifying liquidity and default risks of corporate bonds over the business cycle." The Review of Financial Studies 31.3 (2017): 852-897.
    De Mello Jr, Luiz R. "Fiscal decentralization and intergovernmental fiscal relations: a cross-country analysis." World development 28.2 (2000): 365-380.
    Dick-Nielsen, Jens, Peter Feldhütter, and David Lando. "Corporate bond liquidity before and after the onset of the subprime crisis." Journal of Financial Economics 103.3 (2012): 471-492.
    Dumitrescu, Elena-Ivona, and Christophe Hurlin. "Testing for Granger non-causality in heterogeneous panels." Economic Modelling 29.4 (2012): 1450-1460.
    Fisman, Raymond. "Estimating the value of political connections." American economic review 91.4 (2001): 1095-1102.
    Houweling, Patrick, Albert Mentink, and Ton Vorst. "Comparing possible proxies of corporate bond liquidity." Journal of Banking & Finance 29.6 (2005): 1331-1358.
    James, Lawrence R., and Jeanne M. Brett. "Mediators, moderators, and tests for mediation." Journal of Applied Psychology 69.2 (1984): 307.
    Jin, Hehui, Yingyi Qian, and Barry R. Weingast. "Regional decentralization and fiscal incentives: Federalism, Chinese style." Journal of public economics 89.9-10 (2005): 1719-1742.
    King, Tao-Hsien Dolly, and Kenneth Khang. "On the importance of systematic risk factors in explaining the cross-section of corporate bond yield spreads." Journal of Banking & Finance 29.12 (2005): 3141-3158.
    Lopez, Luciano, and Sylvain Weber. "Testing for Granger causality in panel data." The Stata Journal 17.4 (2018): 972-984.
    Montinola, Gabriella, Yingyi Qian, and Barry R. Weingast. "Federalism, Chinese style: the political basis for economic success in China." World politics 48.1 (1995): 50-81.
    Polackova, Hana. Contingent government liabilities: A hidden risk for fiscal stability. Vol. 1989. World Bank Publications, 1998.
    Uribe, Martin. "A fiscal theory of sovereign risk." Journal of Monetary Economics 53.8 (2006): 1857-1875.
    Walter, Carl, and Fraser Howie. Red capitalism: The fragile financial foundation of China`s extraordinary rise. John Wiley & Sons, 2012.
    Wang, S., and F. Yu. What drives Chinese local government bond yields. Working paper, 2014.
    Wildasin, David E. "Introduction: Fiscal aspects of evolving federations." International Tax and Public Finance 3.2 (1996): 121-135.
    描述: 碩士
    國立政治大學
    經濟學系
    106258040
    資料來源: http://thesis.lib.nccu.edu.tw/record/#G0106258040
    資料類型: thesis
    DOI: 10.6814/THE.NCCU.ECONO.005.2019.F06
    顯示於類別:[經濟學系] 學位論文

    文件中的檔案:

    檔案 大小格式瀏覽次數
    804001.pdf1227KbAdobe PDF20檢視/開啟


    在政大典藏中所有的資料項目都受到原著作權保護.


    社群 sharing

    著作權政策宣告 Copyright Announcement
    1.本網站之數位內容為國立政治大學所收錄之機構典藏，無償提供學術研究與公眾教育等公益性使用，惟仍請適度，合理使用本網站之內容，以尊重著作權人之權益。商業上之利用，則請先取得著作權人之授權。
    The digital content of this website is part of National Chengchi University Institutional Repository. It provides free access to academic research and public education for non-commercial use. Please utilize it in a proper and reasonable manner and respect the rights of copyright owners. For commercial use, please obtain authorization from the copyright owner in advance.

    2.本網站之製作，已盡力防止侵害著作權人之權益，如仍發現本網站之數位內容有侵害著作權人權益情事者，請權利人通知本網站維護人員(nccur@nccu.edu.tw)，維護人員將立即採取移除該數位著作等補救措施。
    NCCU Institutional Repository is made to protect the interests of copyright owners. If you believe that any material on the website infringes copyright, please contact our staff(nccur@nccu.edu.tw). We will remove the work from the repository and investigate your claim.
    DSpace Software Copyright © 2002-2004  MIT &  Hewlett-Packard  /   Enhanced by   NTU Library IR team Copyright ©   - 回饋