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    Please use this identifier to cite or link to this item: https://nccur.lib.nccu.edu.tw/handle/140.119/124167


    Title: 運用DCF模型檢測台灣股市內線交易之研究
    An application of DCF model on insider trading detection in Taiwan stock markets
    Authors: 吳承霖
    Wu, Cheng-Lin
    Contributors: 鄭宇庭
    吳承霖
    Wu, Cheng-Lin
    Keywords: 內線交易
    市場有效假說理論
    DCF模型
    台灣上市股票
    Date: 2019
    Issue Date: 2019-07-01 10:53:10 (UTC+8)
    Abstract: 近年來隨著台灣經濟的發展,人們開始越來越注重個人理財,而最為人們所熟悉的理財工具就是股票市場。股票的價格只有在進入股票市場後,綜合各種消息與人們對股票價值的期許,價格才逐漸表現出來。因此,可以將股票的價格當作一個綜合市場上各種消息的最終指標。雖然根據各種消息去進行股票交易能幫助市場消息的傳播,但內線交易卻是有害市場運作機能的。也因如此,金融管理機構才立法管制內線交易這樣的行為。
    本研究以DCF模型為依據,隨機抽樣了七間適用DCF模型的公司,並以2015年3月31日至2018年3月31日的歷史財務報表為資料分析的基礎,推斷出合適股價,再以此為依據,去觀察2018年3月31日前後之股價變化與交易量變化,以檢測台灣市場是否有內線交易的行為。實證結果顯示:
    1. 台灣股市並非弱式有效市場。
    2. 股價前後變化顯示台灣股市有內線交易之可能。
    3. 交易量前後變化顯示台灣股市有內線交易之可能。
    Reference: 一、 中文文獻
    1. 丁正杰(2011),證券交易法短線交易歸入權之實證研究-以構成要件與司法實務之探討為中心,臺灣大學法律學研究所碩士論文。
    2. 王宏瑞、陳佑軒(2011),以股市投資人結構觀點淺談集中市場競價機制發展方向,證交資料,588,69-81。
    3. 王朝仕、陳振遠、陳振宇、張眾卓(2011),建構移動視窗探討內線交易對購回股票宣告之影響,中山管理評論,19(3),633-664。
    4. 紀文富(2009),論內線交易行為人之主觀惡意,中原大學財經法律研究所碩士論文。
    5. 張心悌(2008),從法律經濟學與資訊財產權探討內線交易理論:兼論內線交易內部人之範圍略,臺大法學論叢,37(3),97-128。
    6. 曾宛如(2009),建構我國內線交易之規範: 從禁止內線交易所欲保護之法益切,臺大法學論叢,38(1),253-310。
    7. 溫大瑋(2013),台灣內線交易民事責任規範之妥適性-以證券交易法第 157 條之 1 第 3 項為觀察中心,成功大學財務金融研究所碩士在職專班碩士論文。
    8. 賴英照(2007),賴英照說法—從內線交易到企業社會責任,聯經出版事業公司。
    9. 賴逸靜(2009),內線交易犯罪特性之研究,臺北大學犯罪學研究所碩士論文。




    二、英文文獻
    1. Akerlof, G. A, (1978), "he market for “lemons”: Quality uncertainty and the market mechanism", Uncertainty in Economics, 235-251.
    2. Biais, B. & P. Hillion, (1994), " Insider and liquidity trading in stock and options markets", The Review of Financial Studies, Volume:7, Issue:4, 743-780.
    3. Cochrane, J. H., (1991), "Volatility tests and efficient markets: A review essay", Journal of Monetary Economics, Volume:27, Issue:3, 463-485.
    4. Fama, E. F. & K. R. French, (2004), "The capital asset pricing model: Theory and evidence", Journal of Economic Perspectives, Volume:18, Issue:3, 25-46..
    5. Fama, E. F., (1998), "Market efficiency, long-term returns, and behavioral finance1", Journal of Financial Economics, Volume:49, Issue:3, 283-306.
    6. Gordon, J. N. & L. A. Kornhauser, (1985), "Efficient Markets, Costly Information, and Securities Research", New York University Law Review 761.
    7. Jarrell, G. A. & A. B. Poulse, (1989), " Stock trading before the announcement of tender offers: Insider trading or market anticipation ", JL Econ. & Org, Volume:5, 225.
    8. Jegadeesh, N. & S. Titman, (1993), " Returns to buying winners and selling losers: Implications for stock market efficiency ", The Journal of Finance, Volume:48, Issue:1, 65-91.
    9. Jensen, M. C., F. Black & M. S. Scholes, (1972), "The capital asset pricing model: Some empirical tests", In M. C. Jensen (Ed.), Studies in the Theory of Capital Markets, pp. 79-121, New York Praeger.
    10. Laffont, J. J. & E. S. Maskin, (1990), " The efficient market hypothesis and insider trading on the stock market ", Journal of Political Economy, Volume:98, Issue:1, 70-93.
    11. Malkiel, B. G. & E. F. Fama, (1970), "Efficient capital markets: A review of theory and empirical work", The Journal of Finance, Volume:25, Issue:2, 383-417.
    12. Merton, R. C., (1973),"An intertemporal capital asset pricing model", Journal of the Econometric Society, 867-887.
    13. Peress, J., (2010), " Product market competition, insider trading, and stock market efficiency?", The Journal of Finance, Volume:65, Issue:1, 1-43.
    Description: 碩士
    國立政治大學
    經營管理碩士學程(EMBA)
    106932017
    Source URI: http://thesis.lib.nccu.edu.tw/record/#G0106932017
    Data Type: thesis
    DOI: 10.6814/NCCU201900021
    Appears in Collections:[經營管理碩士學程EMBA] 學位論文

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