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| Title: | 年報語調與盈餘預測之關聯性
Association between Tone in Annual Reports and Future Earnings |
| Authors: | 謝明珊
Hsieh, Ming-Shan |
| Contributors: | 陳宇紳
謝明珊
Hsieh, Ming-Shan |
| Keywords: | 語調
文字分析
盈餘預測
Tone
Textual analysis
Earnings forecast |
| Date: | 2019 |
| Issue Date: | 2019-07-01 10:41:13 (UTC+8) |
| Abstract: | 本研究旨在探討年報的質化資訊是否可以預測未來盈餘及提升盈餘預測的準確度。我將年報中的文字分成正面與負面詞語，並透過正負面語調作為衡量質化資訊的變數。實證結果發現，年報的淨語調越正面，未來一年的盈餘越高、分析師盈餘預測也越精確，但若只採用純正面詞語或純負面詞語，則沒有解釋未來盈餘的效果。年報的語調亦會導致分析師做出較不悲觀的預測，並降低預測的離散程度；相反地，純負面詞語會使分析師對未來盈餘更加悲觀，導致預測的離散程度增加。另外，若公司的財務報告為修正式意見，分析師會較依賴文字資訊做為預測盈餘的依憑，進而提升盈餘預測的準確度。總括而言，年報質化資訊與盈餘預測是具有關聯性的。
This paper investigates whether qualitative information in financial reports can predict future earnings and enhance forecast accuracy. Extracting tone from annual reports as the proxy of qualitative information, I find that both future earnings and forecast accuracy are positively associated with net tone; however, I do not find that positive tone or negative tone exhibits a similar association. I also find that net tone is associated with less pessimistic forecasts and lower forecast dispersion. Contrast to net tone, negative tone is inversely related with pessimistic forecasts and forecast dispersion. Additionally, the association between tone and forecast accuracy is stronger for firms receiving qualified audit opinions. Overall, my findings show that tone in financial statements provide useful information for financial statement users to predict future earnings. |
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| Description: | 碩士
國立政治大學
會計學系
106353021 |
| Source URI: | http://thesis.lib.nccu.edu.tw/record/#G0106353021 |
| Data Type: | thesis |
| DOI: | 10.6814/NCCU201900075 |
| Appears in Collections: | [會計學系] 學位論文
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