政大機構典藏-National Chengchi University Institutional Repository(NCCUR):Item 140.119/122708
English  |  正體中文  |  简体中文  |  Post-Print筆數 : 27 |  Items with full text/Total items : 113324/144300 (79%)
Visitors : 51151944      Online Users : 855
RC Version 6.0 © Powered By DSPACE, MIT. Enhanced by NTU Library IR team.
Scope Tips:
  • please add "double quotation mark" for query phrases to get precise results
  • please goto advance search for comprehansive author search
    •  Adv. Search
    Home ‧ Login ‧ Upload ‧ Help ‧ About ‧ Administer Goto mobile version


    Please use this identifier to cite or link to this item: https://nccur.lib.nccu.edu.tw/handle/140.119/122708


    Title: 體制崩潰、投機程度對現貨匯率與遠期匯率動態走勢的影響：以商品市場衝擊為例
    The Impact of Price Regime Collapse and Speculation Degree of Speculator on the Dynamic Path of Spot Exchange Rate and Forward Exchange Rate: An Example of Commodity Market Stochastic Shock
    Authors: 廖培賢
    Liaw, Peir-Shyan
    洪偉盛
    Hung, Wei-Shang
    Contributors: 社會科學論叢
    Keywords: 價格體制崩潰;遠期匯率;投機者投機程度;貿易餘額的實質匯率反應係數;銀根緊縮效果
    price regime collapsing;forward exchange rate;the speculation degree of speculator;real exchange rate of trade balance reaction coefficient;the tight money effect
    Date: 2017-12
    Issue Date: 2019-03-28 10:35:11 (UTC+8)
    Abstract: 本文以(1)Dornbusch（1976）探討匯率動態調整，(2)Eaton and Turnovsky（1982, 1984）、賴景昌（2006）考量遠期外匯市場的開放經濟一般均衡模型為基礎，納入Komiya（1966）、Mundell（1971）、Chen（1973）、Lai and Chen（1984）等所強調的貨幣貶值銀根緊縮效果（tight money effect），進而建構一個包含遠期外匯市場的開放經濟一般均衡體制崩潰（regime collapsing）模型，藉以討論：一旦經濟體系遭逢商品市場需求面有利衝擊，貨幣當局為了阻擋物價水準進一步上漲，進而利用減少名目貨幣供給的措施將本國物價水準釘住在某一固定水準的情況下，相關總體經濟變數所呈現的動態調整風貌。研究結果發現：(1)貨幣當局所能忍受的本國物價門檻上限水準不僅與本國物價體制崩潰時機有關，其也是決定本國物價體制是否會崩潰的重要關鍵樞紐因素，(2)(a)「貿易餘額的實質匯率反應係數」與「銀根緊縮效果」兩者的相對大小、(b)投機者投機程度的相對大小這兩項關鍵因素，在決定遠期匯率動態走勢上也占了舉足輕重的角色。
    This paper constructs an open economy general equilibrium macroeconomic model is characterized by the Dornbusch (1976) exchange rate dynamic adjustment model and Eaton and Turnovsky (1982‚1984)‚ Lai (2006) open economy forward foreign exchange market model. We use the ＂implicit function technique＂ of regime collapsing‚ which is offered by Chang and Lai (1990) to analyze if the monetary authority tend to curb the rising price level through the tight monetary policy which the economy is facing a beneficial shock on the demand side of the commodity market. Under the former economic circumstances‚ what will be the dynamic effect of the relevant macroeconomic variables if the monetary authority executes the policy? The major findings are (i) not only the price ceiling threshold level is the key factor of price regime collapsing time‚ but also is the important determinant of the price regime collapsing whether or not? (ii) (a) the relative amplitude of ＂real exchange rate of trade balance reaction coefficient＂ and ＂the tight money effect＂ (b) the relative amplitude of ＂the speculation degree of speculator＂ are the two key factors to decide the dynamic path of the forward exchange rate.
    Relation: 社會科學論叢, 11(2), pp.59-115
    Data Type: article
    Appears in Collections:[Journal of Social Sciences] Journal Articles

    Files in This Item:

    File Description SizeFormat
    99.pdf3718KbAdobe PDF2281View/Open


    All items in 政大典藏 are protected by copyright, with all rights reserved.


    社群 sharing

    著作權政策宣告 Copyright Announcement
    1.本網站之數位內容為國立政治大學所收錄之機構典藏，無償提供學術研究與公眾教育等公益性使用，惟仍請適度，合理使用本網站之內容，以尊重著作權人之權益。商業上之利用，則請先取得著作權人之授權。
    The digital content of this website is part of National Chengchi University Institutional Repository. It provides free access to academic research and public education for non-commercial use. Please utilize it in a proper and reasonable manner and respect the rights of copyright owners. For commercial use, please obtain authorization from the copyright owner in advance.

    2.本網站之製作，已盡力防止侵害著作權人之權益，如仍發現本網站之數位內容有侵害著作權人權益情事者，請權利人通知本網站維護人員(nccur@nccu.edu.tw)，維護人員將立即採取移除該數位著作等補救措施。
    NCCU Institutional Repository is made to protect the interests of copyright owners. If you believe that any material on the website infringes copyright, please contact our staff(nccur@nccu.edu.tw). We will remove the work from the repository and investigate your claim.
    DSpace Software Copyright © 2002-2004  MIT &  Hewlett-Packard  /   Enhanced by   NTU Library IR team Copyright ©   - Feedback