政大機構典藏-National Chengchi University Institutional Repository(NCCUR):Item 140.119/121429
English  |  正體中文  |  简体中文  |  Post-Print筆數 : 27 |  全文筆數/總筆數 : 113318/144297 (79%)
造訪人次 : 51065420      線上人數 : 970
RC Version 6.0 © Powered By DSPACE, MIT. Enhanced by NTU Library IR team.
搜尋範圍 查詢小技巧：
  • 您可在西文檢索詞彙前後加上"雙引號"，以獲取較精準的檢索結果
  • 若欲以作者姓名搜尋，建議至進階搜尋限定作者欄位，可獲得較完整資料
    •  進階搜尋


    請使用永久網址來引用或連結此文件: https://nccur.lib.nccu.edu.tw/handle/140.119/121429


    題名: Electoral Competition, Incumbency, News Coverage, and Prediction Market Price: A Preliminary Study of Campaign Contributions and Spending in Taiwan`s 2016 Legislative Election
    選舉差距、現任者優勢、新聞報導以及預測市場價格：探討台灣2016立委選舉的捐款與支出
    作者: 蔡佳泓
    Tsai, Chia-hung
    貢獻者: 選研中心
    關鍵詞: news coverage ; prediction market price ; contribution ; spending ; legislative election 
     新聞報導 ; 預測市場價格 ; 捐款 ; 支出 ; 立委選舉
    日期: 2018-05
    上傳時間: 2018-12-18 17:38:29 (UTC+8)
    摘要: In a political campaign, candidates attempt to mobilize voters by using contributions from individuals, corporations, and political parties. It is an accepted fact of democracy that campaigns should attempt to outdo one another in both the amount they collect in contributions and what they spend on campaigns. Previous research has explored the incumbent advantage in campaign finance, but many interesting factors remain. For instance, is fund-raising aided by factors such as the closeness of an election or a candidate`s tenure in the Legislative Yuan? In this study, we explain campaign contributions using data from prediction markets and television news reports to account for variations in campaign spending. Our results suggest that incumbent advantage does indeed affect contributions and that DPP candidates outperformed other candidates in campaign finance. We also find that previous electoral margins and television news coverage contribute significantly to campaign donations, and that election betting has an impact on spending. These findings suggest that a political party`s general campaign can influence the election race of an individual candidate, and that contributors tend to bet on likely winners, deepening the influence of the electoral system on competing political parties.
    在競選過程中，候選人運用從個人、政黨、企業所募得的資金，試圖動員選民，這已經是民主的常態。過去的研究已經探討現任者在選舉花費的優勢，但是仍有許多因素仍待探討。例如，選舉的差距變大會減少候選人募到的經費嗎？候選人在立法院的年資會有助於募款嗎？本研究使用預測市場以及電視新聞的資料，解釋候選人申報的政治獻金以及選舉支出，結果顯示現任者優勢的確存在，而且民進黨候選人的收入與支出高於國民黨與其他候選人。本研究也發現，四年前的選舉結果以及候選人所屬政黨的總統候選人出現在電視新聞的時間，顯著影響候選人的募款，此次選舉中預測市場的價格則顯著影響候選人的支出。歸納這些發現可以得出政黨的選舉方式將會影響個別候選人的競選過程，而捐款可能集中在勝選機會大的候選人，而這可能擴大選舉制度對於政黨競爭的影響。
    關聯: 選舉研究, Vol.25, No.1, pp.117-147
    資料類型: article
    DOI 連結: http://dx.doi.org/10.6612/tjes.201805_25(1).0004
    DOI: 10.6612/tjes.201805_25(1).0004
    顯示於類別:[選舉研究中心] 期刊論文

    文件中的檔案:

    檔案 描述 大小格式瀏覽次數
    147.pdf1610KbAdobe PDF2330檢視/開啟


    在政大典藏中所有的資料項目都受到原著作權保護.


    社群 sharing

    著作權政策宣告 Copyright Announcement
    1.本網站之數位內容為國立政治大學所收錄之機構典藏，無償提供學術研究與公眾教育等公益性使用，惟仍請適度，合理使用本網站之內容，以尊重著作權人之權益。商業上之利用，則請先取得著作權人之授權。
    The digital content of this website is part of National Chengchi University Institutional Repository. It provides free access to academic research and public education for non-commercial use. Please utilize it in a proper and reasonable manner and respect the rights of copyright owners. For commercial use, please obtain authorization from the copyright owner in advance.

    2.本網站之製作，已盡力防止侵害著作權人之權益，如仍發現本網站之數位內容有侵害著作權人權益情事者，請權利人通知本網站維護人員(nccur@nccu.edu.tw)，維護人員將立即採取移除該數位著作等補救措施。
    NCCU Institutional Repository is made to protect the interests of copyright owners. If you believe that any material on the website infringes copyright, please contact our staff(nccur@nccu.edu.tw). We will remove the work from the repository and investigate your claim.
    DSpace Software Copyright © 2002-2004  MIT &  Hewlett-Packard  /   Enhanced by   NTU Library IR team Copyright ©   - 回饋