政大機構典藏-National Chengchi University Institutional Repository(NCCUR):Item 140.119/121081
English  |  正體中文  |  简体中文  |  Post-Print筆數 : 27 |  全文筆數/總筆數 : 114205/145239 (79%)
造訪人次 : 52934712      線上人數 : 907
RC Version 6.0 © Powered By DSPACE, MIT. Enhanced by NTU Library IR team.
搜尋範圍 查詢小技巧：
  • 您可在西文檢索詞彙前後加上"雙引號"，以獲取較精準的檢索結果
  • 若欲以作者姓名搜尋，建議至進階搜尋限定作者欄位，可獲得較完整資料
    •  進階搜尋


    請使用永久網址來引用或連結此文件: https://nccur.lib.nccu.edu.tw/handle/140.119/121081


    題名: Evaluating the inefficiency of CBOs budgetary forecasts
    作者: 荒井夏來
    Natsuki Arai
    貢獻者: 國貿系
    日期: 2017-06
    上傳時間: 2018-11-26 17:14:56 (UTC+8)
    摘要: The aim is to evaluate the efficiency of the Congressional Budget Office’s (CBO) budgetary and economic forecasts and to investigate the causes of the inefficiency in its forecasts. While the efficiency is accepted for the CBO’s forecasts for outlays, it is strongly rejected for its revenue and economic forecasts. The conditional forecast evaluation suggests that efficiency is accepted once we control the differences in the underlying economic forecasts. By replacing the CBO’s underlying economic forecasts with another subjective forecast in an out-of-sample forecasting exercise, we find that this adjustment could achieve modest improvements in the accuracy of the CBO’s budgetary forecasts. Though the CBO tends to make positive forecast errors for the budget deficit, there is no definitive evidence for the asymmetry in its loss function.
    關聯: The 1st International Conference on Econometrics and Statistics (HKUST), Hong Kong University of Science and Technology (HKUST) Business School
    EcoSta 2017, Parallel Session G, Friday 16.06.2017 10:20 - 12:25, EO0436
    資料類型: conference
    顯示於類別:[國際經營與貿易學系 ] 會議論文

    文件中的檔案:

    檔案 描述 大小格式瀏覽次數
    BoA_EcoSta2017.pdf2841KbAdobe PDF2150檢視/開啟


    在政大典藏中所有的資料項目都受到原著作權保護.


    社群 sharing

    著作權政策宣告 Copyright Announcement
    1.本網站之數位內容為國立政治大學所收錄之機構典藏，無償提供學術研究與公眾教育等公益性使用，惟仍請適度，合理使用本網站之內容，以尊重著作權人之權益。商業上之利用，則請先取得著作權人之授權。
    The digital content of this website is part of National Chengchi University Institutional Repository. It provides free access to academic research and public education for non-commercial use. Please utilize it in a proper and reasonable manner and respect the rights of copyright owners. For commercial use, please obtain authorization from the copyright owner in advance.

    2.本網站之製作，已盡力防止侵害著作權人之權益，如仍發現本網站之數位內容有侵害著作權人權益情事者，請權利人通知本網站維護人員(nccur@nccu.edu.tw)，維護人員將立即採取移除該數位著作等補救措施。
    NCCU Institutional Repository is made to protect the interests of copyright owners. If you believe that any material on the website infringes copyright, please contact our staff(nccur@nccu.edu.tw). We will remove the work from the repository and investigate your claim.
    DSpace Software Copyright © 2002-2004  MIT &  Hewlett-Packard  /   Enhanced by   NTU Library IR team Copyright ©   - 回饋