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    題名: 預測市場系統於傳染性疾病預測之應用與使用者接受度
    Application and User Acceptance of Prediction Market System in Epidemic Disease Forecasting
    作者: 張書勳
    Chang, Shu-Hsun
    貢獻者: 李有仁
    Li, Eldon Y.
    張書勳
    Chang, Shu-Hsun
    關鍵詞: 預測市場
    系統發展
    傳染性疾病預測
    預測正確性
    使用者接受
    Prediction market
    System development
    Epidemic prediction
    Prediction accuracy
    User accpetance
    日期: 2018
    上傳時間: 2018-08-29 15:49:07 (UTC+8)
    摘要: 預測市場透過整合來自不同來源之資訊，用以預測未來發生之事件，本研究透過該項機制建置網際網路為基礎之預測市場系統，針對選定之傳染性疾病傳播之預測事件之實驗環境，蒐集驗證性資料探討預測市場之預測正確性。此外，並透過DeLone and McLean’s之理論為基礎，探討影響使用者持續使用預測市場行為之前置因子。
    Prediction market, operating like a future market, can be used as a mechanism to integrate information from different sources to predict the outcomes of future events. This research first proposes an architecture and establishes a web-based system of prediction market. Then, the study conducts the investigation about the case that involves the prediction of epidemic disease breaks to empirically measure the accuracy of prediction market system. Further, this study proposes a research model based on the DeLone and McLean’s IS success model and Ajzen’s theory of planned behavior to comprehend the drivers that influence the users’ intentions to continue trading in the prediction market. Finally, academic and practical implications are discussed.
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    描述: 博士
    國立政治大學
    資訊管理學系
    983565041
    資料來源: http://thesis.lib.nccu.edu.tw/record/#G0983565041
    資料類型: thesis
    DOI: 10.6814/DIS.NCCU.MIS.021.2018.A05
    顯示於類別:[資訊管理學系] 學位論文

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