| Abstract: | This study was to understand odds of prediction between different skills and between different ages. Method: The subjects were 145 experts and novices from NCCU, and experts from Shih-Shin University. The study was to test the subjects` visual detection competence based on their judgment of attack movement and falling points of attack via 2000 male volleyball championship Olympic film. The data was statistically analyzed in Generalized Linear Mixed Effects Model. Results: A. Difference between different skills: (a) For straight-lined ball in position number 2, before hitting the ball, and for tilt-lined ball in positions number 3 and 4, during hitting the ball, average students aged from 18 to 19 had little higher odds of prediction than experts aged from 18 to 19. (b) For tilt-lined ball in position number 2, before, during and after hitting the ball, and straight-lined ball in position 3, before and during hitting the ball, and straight-lined ball in position number 4, after hitting the ball, experts aged from 18 to 19 had significantly higher odds of prediction than average students aged from 18 to 19. B. Difference between different ages: (a) For straight-lined ball, during and after hitting the ball in position number 2, experts aged above 20 had significantly higher odds of prediction than experts aged from 18 to 19. (b). For tilt-lined ball in position number 2, after hitting the ball, experts aged from 18 to 19 had significantly higher odds of prediction than experts aged above 20. Conclusions: A. For straight-lined ball in position number 2, and tilt-lined ball in positions number 3 and 4, shoulder direction of attack and direction of falling points were consistent, so it was easier to predict the odds. Young novices used shoulder as precut, so they had little higher odds of prediction than young experts. For tilt-lined ball in position number 2, and straight-lined ball in positions number 3 and 4, shoulder direction of attack and direction of falling points were not very consistent, so it was harder to predict the odds. Young experts were more prone to sense the hidden motion intention, so they had higher odds of prediction than young novices. B. Senior experts used shoulder direction as precut, so their odds of prediction were higher than young experts for straight-lined ball in position 2. Young experts used approach direction as precut, so their odds of prediction were higher than senior experts for tilt-lined ball in position 2.
目的：瞭解不同技能間與年齡間在預測勝算之差異情形。方法：以政治大學運動績優生、選修排球初級學生及世新大學運動績優生共145名為受試者，依受試者對2000年男子奧運排球冠亞軍比賽影片中攻擊動作與攻擊落點之判斷，來測試受試者的視覺偵察能力，所得資料以廣義線性混合效應模型進行統計分析。結果：一、不同技能之差異情形：（一）『18-19歲』一般生在2號位直線球於擊球前與3、4號位斜線球於擊球中時，其預測勝算略高於『18-19歲』績優生。（二）『18-19歲』績優生在2號位斜線球於擊球前中後、3號位直線球於擊球前中與4號位直線球於擊球後時，其預測勝算顯著高於『18-19歲』一般生。二、不同年齡之差異情形：（一）『20歲以上』績優生在2號位直線球於擊球中後時，其預測勝算顯著高於『18-19歲』績優生。（二）『18-19歲』績優生在2號位斜線球於擊球後時，其預測勝算顯著高於『20歲以上』績優生。結論：一、2號位直線球與3、4號位斜線球攻擊之肩膀方向與球體落點方向較一致，故其較易預測，年輕初學者較以肩膀為前線索，故其預測勝算有略高於年輕熟練者之趨勢；2號位斜線球與3、4號位直線球攻擊之肩膀方向與球體落點方向較不一致，故其較難預測，年輕熟練者較易感知潛藏的動作意圖，故其預測勝算高於年輕初學者。二、年長熟練者較以肩膀方向為前線索，促使在2號位直線球攻擊上，其預測勝算高於年輕熟練者；年輕熟練者較以助跑方向為前線索，促使在2號位斜線球攻擊上，其預測勝算高於年長熟練者。 |
