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    題名: 租稅負擔與人口流動—以台灣各縣市為例
    Tax Burden and Internal Migration—Evidence from Counties and Cities in Taiwan
    作者: 蔡素娟
    Tsai, Shu-Chuan
    貢獻者: 黃智聰
    蔡素娟
    Tsai, Shu-Chuan
    關鍵詞: 租稅負擔
    有效稅率
    平均稅率
    人口流動
    日期: 2018
    上傳時間: 2018-07-31 13:47:53 (UTC+8)
    摘要: 本論文主要的研究目的在於研究台灣各縣市租稅負擔對人口流動的影響。本文利用1995至2010年共16年台灣23縣市的追蹤資料進行研究。在研究方法上，經過多個檢定方法的檢定結果顯示，二元固定效果模型是最佳的實證模型，因此本論文採用此實證模型進行估計。在租稅負擔的變數設定方面，本論文分別採用有效稅率（模型一）與平均稅率（模型二）進行實證估計。由於經過成對解釋變數的相關係數與VIF的估計顯示，解釋變數之間並未有共線性的問題，因此可以確定本論文的估計應有一定的準確性。本論文主要的研究發現為，租稅負擔（不論是有效稅率或平均稅率）在統計上確實對台灣各縣市的人口淨流入率具有負向的影響。此外，每人享有社會福利支出、每戶每年實質可支配所得、服務業就業人口所占比例、是否有地方首長選舉，都對各縣市的人口淨流入率有正向的影響。本論文的結論支持Tiebout（1956）所提出之「以腳投票」理論、Borjas’s（1999）所提出福利磁吸假說、以及Huang and Chang（2017）所提出存在幽靈選民。
    The main purpose of this thesis is researching the Influence of tax burden to internal migration from counties and cities in Taiwan. This research is conducted by the tracking data from 23 counties and cities in Taiwan within16years from 1995 to 2010. Take much verification methods into accounts, the result illustrates that two-factor model is the best empirical model,therefore, this thesis takes this pratical modle as the method to estimate.In terms of the virable of tax burden, the thesis conducts effecive tax rate (model one)and average tax rate(model two) seperately. Because of the illustrating by correlation coefficient and VIF, there is no colinearity concern within explaination virable. Therefor, the thesis is quite accuracy. The main study found is that tax burden has negative effect on the rate of social increase rate of population no matter by using effecive tax rate or average tax rate. Besids,there are some facts which may have positive effct on the rate of net internal migration such as social welfare expenditure 、 substantial disposable income、the percentage of service industry and whether there is local head election or not. The conclusion of this thesis supports the theory of voting by foot,Tiebout(1956)、welfare magnetic hypothesis,Borjas`s(1999) and the exsiting of ghost voter,Huang and Chang(2017).
    參考文獻: 一、 中文文獻
    王素英（1986），《台灣內部人口遷移之經濟分析》。台中市：逢甲大學經
    濟研究所碩士論文。
    林季平（2005），「台灣的人口遷徙及勞工流動問題回顧：1980-2000」，《台
    灣社會學刊》，34，頁147-209。
    洪嘉瑜、銀慶貞（2008），「臺灣人口遷移屬性與動機的變化」，《東吳經濟
    商學學報》，61，頁31-65。
    洪嘉瑜、陶宏麟、蔡智發（2003），「影響臺灣內部遷徙的經濟因素探討」，
    《經濟論文叢刊》，第31卷第2期，頁253-277。
    張李淑容（1998），「地方財政與人口遷移：臺中市之實證分析」，《財稅研
    究》，第30卷第1期，頁61-84。
    張李淑容（1999），「臺灣地區地方財政因素對人口遷移影響之實證分析」，
    《臺灣銀行季刊》，第50卷第2期，頁199-227。
    張慈佳、凃保全（2008），「製造業產業發展對人口遷移的影響：臺灣的實
    證分析」，《建築與規劃學報》，第9卷第1期，頁21-35。
    劉小蘭、劉念華（1995），「台北都會區流入人口特性之探討」，《政治大學
    學報》，70，頁197-225。
    蔡宏進（2004），《台灣人口與人力研究》。台北市：唐山出版社。
    鄧瑞兆、蔡吉源（1995），「地方財政資本化與居所選擇之經濟分析」，《台
    灣土地金融季刊》，第32卷第4期，頁75-97。
    薛立敏、李中文、曾喜鵬（2003），「臺灣區域人口遷移及其與就業市場、
    住宅市場關係之實證研究」，《都市與計劃》，第30卷第1期，頁37-61。
    二、 英文文獻
    Ashby, Nathan J. (2007), “Economic Freedom and Migration Flows between U.S. States.” Southern Economic Journal,73 (3),677-697.
    Berger,M.C. and G.C. Blomquist (1992),“Mobility and Destination in Migration Decisions: The Roles of Earnings, Quality of Life, and Housing Prices.” Journal of Housing Economics,2(1),37-59.
    Blank, Rebecca M.(1988),“The Effect of Welfare and Wage Levels on the Location Decisions of Female-Headed Households.” Journal of Urban Economics,24,186-211.
    Borjas,J. G.,(1999),“Immigration and Welfare Magnets.” Journal of Labor Economics,1(17),607-637.
    Buchanan,J. M. and C.J.Goetz (1972), “Efficiency Limits of Fiscal Mobility: An Assessment of the Tiebout Model.” Journal of Public Economics,1(1),25-43.
    Cebula, R. J.(1978),“An Empirical Note on the Tiebout-Tullock Hypothesis.”
    Quarterly Journal of Economics,92(4),705-711.
    Cebula, Richard J.(1990),“A Brief Empirical Note on the Tiebout Hypothesis and State Income Tax Policies.” Public Choice,67(1),87-90.
    Cebula, Richard J.(2002a), “Migration and the Tiebout-Tullock Hypothesis Revisited.” Review of Regional Studies, 32(1),87-96.
    Cebula, Richard J.(2002b),“Net Interstate Population Growth Rates and the Tiebout-Tullock Hypothesis: New Empirical Evidence,1990-2000.” Atlantic Economic Journal,30(4),414-421.
    Cebula, Richard J. and Gigi M. Alexander(2006), “Determinants of Net Interstate Migration, 2000-2004.” Journal of Regional Analysis and Policy,36(2),116-123.
    Cebula, Richard J.(2009),“Migration and the Tiebout-Tullock Hypothesis Revisited.” The American Journal of Economics and Sociology,68(2),541-552.
    Cebula, Richard J. and Usha Nair-Reichert (2012),“Migration and Public Policies: A Further Empirical Analysis. Journal of Economics and Finance,36(1),238-248.
    Cebula, Richard J.(2016),“The Impacts of State Government Tax and Spending Policies on Domestic Migration in the United States: An Analysis for the Great Recession Period July 1,2008-June 30,2009.” Journal of Economics (MVEA),42 (2),1-22.
    Cushing, Brian(1993),“The Effect of the Social Welfare System on Metropolitan Migration, by Income Group, Gender, and Family Structure.” Urban Studies, 30,325-337.
    Cushing, Brian(2005),“The Role of Welfare and Space in the Migration of the Poor.”The 52nd Annual North American Meetings of the Regional Science Association International, Las Vegas, NV, November 10-13,2005.
    Enchautegui, M. E. (1997),“Welfare Payments and Other Economic Determinants of Female Migration.” Journal of Labor Economics,1(15),529-554.
    Fidrmuc, J.(2004). Migration and Regional Adjustment to Asymmetric Shocks in Transition Economies. Journal of Comparative Economics,32,230–247.
    Gramlich, Edward M. and Deborah S. Laren(1984),“Migration and Income Redistribution Responsibilities.”Journal of Human Resources,19,489-511.
    Granger, C.W.J.(1969),“Investigating Causal Relations by Econometric Models and Cross Spectral Methods. ”Econometrica,37,424-438.
    Graves, P. E. and P. D. Linneman(1979),“Household Migration Theoretical and Empirical Results.” Journal of Urban Economics,6,383-404.
    Greenwood, M. J. and G. L. Hunt(2003),“The Early History of Migration Research.”International Regional Science Review, 26,3–37.
    Hausman, Jerry A.(1978),“Specification Tests in conometrics.”Econometrica,46(6),1251-1271.
    Hsing, Yu (1995a),“A Note on Interstate Migration and Tax Burdens: New Evidence.”Journal of Applied Business Research,12(1),12-14.
    Hsing, Yu(1995b),“The Impacts of Welfare Benefits and Tax Burdens on Interstate Migration.” Regional Science Perspectives,25(2),16-24
    Hsing, Yu(1998),“Public Policy and Regional Migration.” Journal of Economic Research,3(1),41-50.
    Hsueh, L. M., H. P. Tseng, and Y.W. Hsieh(2007),“Factors Affect Relocation Behavior in Taiwan in Recent Year – The Model of Household Joint Decision on Moving and Destination Choice.”Journal of Population Studies,34,69–107.
    Huang, Jr-Tsung and Ming-Lei Chang(2017)."Social Welfare, Phantom Voters, and Internal Migration in Taiwan－Evidences from Panel Spatial Analysis."Singapore Economic Review. Forthcoming.
    Kenna, J. and J. R. Walker(2011),“The Effect of Expected Income on Individual Migration Decisions.” Econometrica,79,211–251.
    Lee, Everett S.(1966),“A Theory of Migration.” Demography,3(1),47-57.
    Levine, Phillip B. and David J. Zimmerman(1999),“An Empirical Analysis of the Welfare Magnet Debate Using the NLSY.”Journal of Population Economics,12,391-409.
    Liebig, Thomas and Alfonso Sousa-Poza(2006),“The Influence
    of Taxes on Migration: Evidence from Switzerland.” Cambridge Journalof Economics,30(2),235-252.
    McKinnish, Terra(2005),“Importing the Poor: Welfare Magnetism and Cross-Border Welfare Migration.” Journal of Human Resources,40(1),57-76.
    Ravenstein, E. G.(1889),“The Laws of Migration.” Journal of the Royal Statistical Society,7,241-301.
    Tiebout, C. M.(1956),“A Pure Theory of Local Expenditures.” Journal of Political Economy,2,416-424.
    Tsai, Chi-Yuan(1982),“Taxes and residential choice.” Public Choice,38(1),55-72.
    三、政府出版品
    內政部統計處（1994-2005），《中華民國台閩地區人口統計》。台北市：行
    政院內政部戶政司。
    行政院內政部（2006），《2015年經濟發展願景》。台北市：行政院內政部。
    行政院內政部社會司（2005），《社政年報》。台北市：行政院內政部社會
    司。
    行政院主計處（1994-2005），《中華民國台灣地區人力資源統計調查年報》。
    台北市：行政院主計處。
    行政院主計處（1994-2005），《中華民國臺灣地區家庭收支調查報告》。台
    北市：行政院主計處。
    財政資訊中心（1995-2010），《綜合所得稅申報核定統計專冊》。台北市：
    行政院財政部。
    監察院審計部（1994-2005），《直轄市及縣市地方決算審核結果綜合報告》。
    台北市：監察院審計部。
    描述: 碩士
    國立政治大學
    行政管理碩士學程
    104921014
    資料來源: http://thesis.lib.nccu.edu.tw/record/#G0104921014
    資料類型: thesis
    DOI: 10.6814/THE.NCCU.MEPA.017.2018.F09
    顯示於類別:[行政管理碩士學程(MEPA)] 學位論文

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