政大機構典藏-National Chengchi University Institutional Repository(NCCUR):Item 140.119/119088

政大機構典藏-National Chengchi University Institutional Repository(NCCUR):Item 140.119/119088

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政大典藏 > College of Commerce > Department of Finance > Theses > Item 140.119/119088

Please use this identifier to cite or link to this item: https://nccur.lib.nccu.edu.tw/handle/140.119/119088

Title:	人口特徵對房價影響之分析 An Analysis of Influences of Demographic Characteristics on Housing Prices
Authors:	葉芳秀 Yeh, Fang-Shiou
Contributors:	陳明吉葉芳秀 Yeh, Fang-Shiou
Keywords:	房價人口結構婚姻遷移 Housing prices Demographics structure Marriage Immigration
Date:	2018
Issue Date:	2018-07-31 13:45:13 (UTC+8)
Abstract:	本研究目的在於探討人口特徵因子，對台灣各大都會區的房價，是否有顯著影響。並期望能在掌握影響房價之因子後，能夠事先預測未來房價走勢，以提出因應政策。本研究首先將人口特徵因子分為宜居效果、人口結構效果、婚姻效果以及遷移效果等四類，以方便歸類影響房價之因素。在研究方法方面，本研究首先對於2001~2016年間季資料變數取自然對數後，進行單根檢定，以確保資料以及變數達定態。之後再以迴歸分析的方式，探討台北市、新北市、桃園市、新竹市、台中市以及高雄市等六縣市與人口特徵因子的關係，並以消費者物價指數、五大行庫平均利率以及實質平均每人所得代表總體經濟因子，做為控制變數以固定總體經濟對房價所帶來的影響。實證結果發現人口特徵因子影響北部房價的效果，較南部大。各人口特徵因子中，又以宜居效果，影響範圍最廣。宜居效果中包含人口密度以及戶數此兩項人口變數，此兩項變數皆可代表對房屋需求量之大小。因此本研究推論，影響台灣房價最重要的因子，仍須回歸到需求面因素。遷移效果中，可以發現遷入人口僅對於台北市房價有顯著影響力。都市地區容易吸引大量的人口遷入，進而產生住宅需求，促進房屋價格的上漲。在人口結構效果中，對桃園市以及新竹市房價影響最大。以老年人口依賴比為例，顯著與桃園市的房價呈現負相關。原因為購屋主力為青壯年人口，而由於少子化以及高齡化社會的衝擊下，在青壯年人口比例下降時，將會使老年人口依賴比升高，並導致房屋需求降低，更會進一步使房屋價格下跌。總體經濟因子方面，可以觀察到台北市、新北市以及高雄市等房價偏高的地區，房價容易受到實質平均每人所得之影響。政策建議方面，需要重視目前台灣人口青壯年比例減少的關係，導致全台房價漲幅趨緩的情況，其中又以北部地區影響最為明顯。在此情況下，長期將造成房地產價格崩跌甚至泡沫化情形，政府應密切注意。 The objective of this article is to investigate the relationship between demographics characteristics and housing prices of Taiwan metropolis. As well as to figure out the method of control housing prices by realizing the most effective factor of influencing housing prices and making the perdition of the future price trend. This assignment will first classify the demographics factors into four types of influence – living standard, demographics structure, marriage, and immigration. It will then observe the result by inputting each quarterly data between 2001 to 2016 into natural logarithm function, and then place these natural logarithms into unit root test to make sure all variables are stationary. Eventually, using regression method to analyze the relation between demographics characteristics factors and housing prices in Taipei city, New Taipei city, Taoyuan city, Hsinchu city, Taichung city and Kaohsiung city, looking Consumer Price Index, the average interest rate within the big 5 banks, and real per capita national income as the factor of macroeconomics, and making this factor as control variable to study the influence between fixed macroeconomics and housing prices. The result shows that the influences of demographics characteristics on the northern part of Taiwan is more significant than the southern part. Besides, living standard is the most influential factor. That means the demand really driven housing prices. When it comes to immigration effect, the number of people moving in will raise the housing prices in Taipei City. In Taoyuan city, the old-aged dependency ratio has negative relation between housing prices which is because when the ratio of younger generation and middle-aged population become lower, that makes the housing demand decrease and housing prices decline. It is inferred that long-term housing prices will keep decreasing and the real estate market is possible to suffer market crash.
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Description:	碩士國立政治大學財務管理學系 104357015
Source URI:	http://thesis.lib.nccu.edu.tw/record/#G0104357015
Data Type:	thesis
DOI:	10.6814/THE.NCCU.Finance.019.2018.F07
Appears in Collections:	[Department of Finance] Theses

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