政大機構典藏-National Chengchi University Institutional Repository(NCCUR):Item 140.119/118981

政大機構典藏-National Chengchi University Institutional Repository(NCCUR):Item 140.119/118981

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政大典藏 > College of Social Science > Department of Public Finance > Theses > Item 140.119/118981

Please use this identifier to cite or link to this item: https://nccur.lib.nccu.edu.tw/handle/140.119/118981

Title:	可支配所得與未來不確定性因素對於家戶消費支出的影響 The Effects of Disposable Income and Future Uncertainty on Household Consumption
Authors:	蘇建豪 Su, Jian-Hao
Contributors:	吳文傑 Wu, Jack 蘇建豪 Su, Jian-Hao
Keywords:	預防性儲蓄理論可支配所得保險支出 Precautionary saving Disposable income Medical insurance expenditure
Date:	2018
Issue Date:	2018-07-27 12:36:44 (UTC+8)
Abstract:	本文利用2016年主計處家庭收支調查之橫斷面資料探討家戶可支配所得與未來不確定因素對其消費支出的影響。除了透過建立OLS迴歸模型觀察風險相關解釋變數對於家戶消費支出與家戶非醫療消費支出的邊際效果，亦利用各種標準將家戶分組，觀察各群體面對風險時消費行為的異質性。此外，透過分量迴歸(Quantile Regression)檢視各解釋變數在特定條件分量下對於消費的邊際效果，將可比OLS模型更精確且完整地刻畫消費者在風險下的消費行為。實證結果發現，較高的教育程度、社會保險投保金額與私人醫療險，以及較完整的家庭組織將可透過減少未來各種不確定因素的程度，降低預防性儲蓄動機，進而增加家戶之當期消費。迴歸結果亦顯示，面對較高風險的群組皆呈現較高的邊際消費傾向，意味著當期消費支出與當期可支配所得存在一正向關係，且此正向關係隨不確定性的上升而提高，隱含對風險較為敏感的個人擁有較高的邊際消費傾向。 In this paper, we use the cross-sectional data of the report on the survey of family income and expenditure in 2016 to analyze the effects of disposable income and future uncertainty on household consumption. In addition to establishing the OLS regression model to observe the marginal effects of risk-related independent variables on household consumption and non-medical consumption, we also used various criteria to group households and observed the heterogeneity of consumer behavior under uncertainty. Besides, through quantile regression, we can examine the marginal effect of each independent variable on consumption under certain quantile, which can be more accurate and complete than the OLS model to characterize consumer behavior under uncertainty. The empirical results show that the education level, the amount of social insurance coverage, the integrity of the family organization structure, and the private medical insurance can reduce the degree of uncertainty in the future and reduce the incentives for precautionary saving, thereby increasing the household`s current consumption. The regression results also suggest that the higher-risk groups show higher marginal propensity to consume. This implies that there is a positive relationship between current consumption and disposable income in the current period, and this positive relationship increases as uncertainty increases, suggesting that individuals who are more sensitive to risk have a higher marginal propensity to consume.
Reference:	英文文獻部分 Carrol, C.D.(1992). “The Buffer-Stock Theory of saving: some macroeconomicevidence. ” Brookings Papers on Economic Activity,23,61-156. Carrol, C.D.(1994). “How does future income affect current consumption?” The Quarterly Journal of Economics,109,111-147. Carrol, C.D.(1997). “Buffer-Stock saving and the life cycle/permanent income hypothesis.” The Quarterly Journal of Economics,112,1-55. Carrol, C.D., and Samwick A.A.(1998). “How important is precautionary saving?” The Review of Economics and Statistics,80,410-419. Chou, S.Y., Liu, J.T., and Hammitt, J.K.(2003). “National health insurance and precautionary saving: evidence from Taiwan.” Journal of PublicEconomics,87,1873-1894. Feenberg, D., and Skinner, J.(1994). “The risk and duration of catastrophic health care expenditures.” The Review of Economics and Statistics,76,633-647. Feldstein, M.(1988). “The effects of fiscal policies when incomes are uncertain: a contradiction to Ricardian equivalence.” The American Economic Review,78,14-23. Gruber, J., and Yelowitz, A.(1999). “Public health insurance and private savings.” Journal of Political Economy,107,1249-1274. Guariglia, A., and Rossi, M.(2004). “Private medical insurance and saving: evidence from the British household panel survey.” Journal of Health Economics,23,761-783. Hsu, M.(2013). “Health insurance and precautionary savings: a structural analysis.” Review of Economic Dynamics,16,511-526. Hubbard, R.G.(1987). “Uncertain lifetimes, pensions, and individual savings.” NBER Chapters, in: Issues in Pension Economics,175-210 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. Hubbard, R.G., Skinner, J., and Zeldes, S.P.(1994). “The importance of precautionary Motives in explaining individual and aggregate saving.” Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy,40,59-125. Hubbard, R.G., Skinner, J., and Zeldes, S.P.(1995). “Precautionary saving and social insurance.” Journal of Political Economy,103,360-399. Kimball, M.S.(1990). “Precautionary saving in the small and in the large.” Econometrica,58,53-73. Kimball, M.S.(1990). “Precautionary saving and the marginal propensity to consume.” Journal of Political Economy,97,863-879. Kotlikoff, L.J.(1981). “The family as an incomplete annuities market.” Journal of Political Economy,89,372-391. Kotlikoff, L.J.(1986). “Health expenditures and precautionary savings.” NBER Working Papers 2008, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. Kotlikoff, L.J., Shoven, J., and Spivak, A.(1986). “The effect of annuity insurance on savings and inequality.” Journal of Labor Economics,4,183-207. Skinner, J.(1988). “Risky income, life cycle consumption, and precautionary savings.” Journal of Monetary Economics,22,237-255. Starr-McCluer, M.,(1996). “Health Insurance and Precautionary Savings.” American Economic Review, American Economic Association,86,285-295 Wagstaff, A., and Pradhan, M.(2005). “Health insurance impacts on health and nonmedical consumption in a developing country.” Policy Research Working Paper; No. 3563. World Bank, Washington, DC. 中文文獻部分周燦(2014)。基於預防性儲蓄理論的中國保險消費外部性研究。中國社會科學院研究生院學報，第2期，40-50。陳建良(2007)。1980年至2000年台灣擁屋家戶儲蓄行為之變遷:分量迴歸分析的新發現。住宅學報，第十六卷第一期，57-78。廖述源，沈煥昇(2014)。個人傷害保險職業分類及其費率係數之探討。核保學報，第21期，126-154。
Description:	碩士國立政治大學財政學系 105255017
Source URI:	http://thesis.lib.nccu.edu.tw/record/#G0105255017
Data Type:	thesis
DOI:	10.6814/THE.NCCU.PF.016.2018.F07
Appears in Collections:	[Department of Public Finance] Theses

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