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    题名: 土壤液化潛勢區公布對房價之影響
    The Impact of Soil Liquefaction Information Disclosure on Housing Price
    作者: 呂哲源
    Lu, Zhe-Yuan
    贡献者: 張金鶚
    江穎慧
    Chang, Chin-Oh
    Chiang, Ying-Hui
    呂哲源
    Lu, Zhe-Yuan
    关键词: 土壤液化
    房價
    差異中之差異法
    傾向分數配對法
    特徵價格法
    Soil liquefaction
    Housing price
    Difference-in-differences
    Propensity score matching
    日期: 2018
    上传时间: 2018-07-27 12:32:39 (UTC+8)
    摘要: 2016年2月6日的美濃大地震，使國人開始意識到土壤液化對於居住安全的威脅。其後，政府公布八個縣市的土壤液化潛勢區查詢系統，將土地劃分為高、中、低三等級潛勢區，提高民眾對土壤液化的風險意識及居住安全的重視。然此舉卻引發市場熱議，土壤液化與房價之間的關係出現兩種討論：部分認為查詢系統之公布將衝擊房屋市場，使潛勢區內之房價下跌、成交量萎縮；另一方則考量建築技術上可以克服以及資訊透明化後的資訊疲乏，認為土壤液化於房價的影響有限。過去國內外有不少文獻針對突發事件對於特定市場的衝擊進行評估，但很少針對土壤液化對於不動產市場做相關的研究。

    本研究採用2015年3月至2017年2月之不動產實價登錄交易資料，及中央地質調查所土壤液化潛勢查詢系統之圖資進行實證分析。應用特徵價格理論和差異中之差異配對分析法（DID with Matching），研究臺北市潛勢地區內之房屋交易價格是否存在差異，以及比較公布前後的價格變化。實證結果顯示，政府揭露液化潛勢區的資訊，確實造成臺北市高潛勢區內之房屋價格下跌3.34%，中、低潛勢區內之房屋價格則無顯著影響，而此影響效果在公布半年後有淡化的現象。
    In Taiwan, the public has become conscious of the soil liquefaction and its ensuing hazard since the eruption of Meinung earthquake on February 6, 2016. In the aftermath of this event, the government disclosed Soil Liquefaction Potential Inquiry System for eight counties. This survey categorized the severity of submersion into three different potential levels – high, medium and low. Such an announcement has raised the public`s perceived risk of soil liquefaction and their attention to the safety of living. In general, the discussion on the relationship between soil liquefaction and house prices are twofold. Some believe that the announcement of the inquiry system will severely impact the housing market. The house prices in the potential area are likely to fall, and the transaction volume will shrink significantly. However, taking the modern construction techniques and the symptoms of information fatigue into account, the others assume that there is only a limited influence on the housing market. Several previous empirical studies have assessed the impact of the hazard on specific markets but seldom did they focus on the relationship between soil liquefaction and housing prices.

    This study, therefore, aims at examining the effect of different potential levels of soil liquefaction on housing prices. The first section analyzes the price differences across distinctive levels of potential areas at one period of time. Meanwhile, the second section probes into the change in housing prices before and after the disclosure of Soil Liquefaction Inquiry System.

    In terms of research methodology, this study employs Hedonic Price Theory and Difference-in-Differences (DID) method with Matching. The transaction data of housing market is adapted from Actual Price Registration of Real Estate in Taipei City between March 2015 and February 2017. The statistical result shows that the disclosure of information on soil liquefaction potential has decreased house prices in the high-potential areas of Taipei by 3.34%; whereas, this effect became weaker half a year after the announcement. In the medium and low potential areas, there is no significant effect of the disclosure on housing prices.
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    二、英文參考文獻
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    三、網頁參考文獻
    經濟部中央地質調查所，2016a，「土壤液化潛勢查詢系統」，中央地質調查所全球資訊網。https://www.moeacgs.gov.tw/2016.htm，取用時間：2016年9月10日。
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    內政部營建署，2017，「土壤液化防治專區」，內政部營建署全球資訊網站。http://www.cpami.gov.tw，取用時間：2017年7月3日。
    國家災害防救科技中心，2016，「災害潛勢地圖網站—斷層與土壤液化」，國家災害防救科技中心。https://dmap.ncdr.nat.gov.tw/，取用時間：2016年9月10日。
    描述: 碩士
    國立政治大學
    地政學系
    105257025
    資料來源: http://thesis.lib.nccu.edu.tw/record/#G0105257025
    数据类型: thesis
    DOI: 10.6814/THE.NCCU.LE.010.2018.A05
    显示于类别:[地政學系] 學位論文

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