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政大典藏 > College of Social Science > Graduate Institute of Development Studies > Periodical Articles > Item 140.119/118873

Please use this identifier to cite or link to this item: https://nccur.lib.nccu.edu.tw/handle/140.119/118873

Title:	Predicting the failures of prediction markets: A procedure of decision making using classification models
Authors:	Tai, Chung-Ching Lin, Hung-Wen Chie, Bin-Tzong 童振源 Chen-YuanTung
Contributors:	國家發展研究所
Keywords:	Combining forecasts;Support vector machine;Decision trees;Principal component analysis;Discriminant analysis;Imbalanced data;Oversampling;SMOTE
Date:	2018-06
Issue Date:	2018-07-24 17:27:37 (UTC+8)
Abstract:	Prediction markets have been an important source of information for decision makers due to their high ex post accuracies. Nevertheless, recent failures of prediction markets remind us of the importance of ex ante assessments of their prediction accuracy. This paper proposes a systematic procedure for decision makers to acquire prediction models which may be used to predict the correctness of winner-take-all markets. We commence with a set of classification models and generate combined models following various rules. We also create artificial records in the training datasets to overcome the imbalanced data issue in classification problems. These models are then empirically trained and tested with a large dataset to see which may best be used to predict the failures of prediction markets. We find that no model can universally outperform others in terms of different performance measures. Despite this, we clearly demonstrate a result of capable models for decision makers based on different decision goals.
Relation:	International Journal of Forecasting
Data Type:	article
DOI link:	https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijforecast.2018.04.003
DOI:	10.1016/j.ijforecast.2018.04.003
Appears in Collections:	[Graduate Institute of Development Studies] Periodical Articles

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