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    题名: 天然巨災之科技風險及以保險方式作為風險管理暨風險溝通工具之政策分析(科技風險溝通導向型研究計畫)
    作者: 張冠群
    贡献者: 法律學系
    关键词: 巨災風險、風險溝通、保險
    Catastrophic Risk, Risk Communication, Insurance
    日期: 2014
    上传时间: 2018-06-08 11:03:14 (UTC+8)
    摘要: 近年，氣候變遷與全球暖化，導致因天然災害引發大幅度損失之「巨災」發生可能性大增。縱與氣候變遷無關，地震此一天然災害，亦可能肇生巨災損失。對於巨災發生之預測，目前普遍採用之科學技術為「巨災模型」(Catastrophic Modeling)，使用巨災模型所得之資訊，得提供予企業、保險業、再保險業乃至政府預測巨災發生機率與單一巨災可能肇生之財產上損失。透過模型之運用與資訊之利用，即可發揮風險溝通之功能，亦即市場參與者得透過模型反映之資訊，定位自身於市場中之角色，如保險人與再保險人決定風險之可保性、資本市場參與者決定巨災證券之發行等皆屬之。巨災模型運作之前提假設為：損失發生之「可能性」及「嚴重性」應可被量化。惟囿於科學之有限性，巨災模型預測結果之量化上，存在二種不確定性足妨礙巨災風險與損失之衡量，即「參數不確定性」和「模型不確定性」。故關於天然巨災之預測上，縱已以科學方式開發出巨災模型作為預測發生率與損失幅度之工具，為因巨災風險之特性及模型之有限性，預測偏差之情形勢無可免，此些錯誤與偏差即天然巨災預測上存在之科技風險。因天然巨災預測上存在科技風險至預測或有偏差，各國政府對巨災風險之治理機制，縱有事前之防範，然主要仍採「事後解決模式」，亦即由政府透過立法方式於事後提供災害之補償。透過保險機制，除得令財產所有人得以「事前解決模式」，達成巨災風險移轉之目的外，亦得於保險銷售與承保過程中，灌輸一般財產所有人對巨災風險之正確認知，並得以保費優惠之獎勵措施，另財產所有人自發性對被保險財產(如房屋)，採取事前之風險防範與風險降低之措施，達成風險溝通之效果。本研究基於認同巨災風險仍具可保性之前題，研究美國、日本、土耳其、紐西蘭於法定之事後災害補償機制外，巨災保險(如地震保險)制度建構之情形，及保險制度作為補充公部門法定災後補償機制之不足之工具之實際操作情形，更重要者，探討此些國家巨災保險機制在風險溝通中扮演之積極角色，並檢驗台灣現行公私協力之天然巨災風險治理機制。
    Owing to global warming, natural disasters become easier to incur catastrophic damages. In addition, earthquake, which is irrelevant to climate change is another natural disaster which can cause catastrophic damages. For risk management purpose, catastrophe modeling has been developed to predict the probability, potential and possible damages of such catastrophes. Nevertheless, due to the low frequency-high consequence natural of the catastrophic risk, the lack of historical data makes it more difficult to develop a precise catastrophe model as model uncertainty and parameter uncertainty are associated with various. catastrophe models. Therefore, governments are inclined to adopt the ex post compensation mechanism. However, the ex post compensation impose upon heavy fiscal burdens and may erode other parts of government fund so at to affect the economic development of a country. This research suggests that only through the private insurance mechanism can mitigate the burden of the government fund, and the risk pricing, the insurance can provide incentives to property owners to adopt preventive measures to better manage their property exposed to potential catastrophic damages. Thus, the insurance not only serves as a tool of risk management, but also as a tool of risk communication, particularly, the insurance mechanism which is established based on the public-private partnership
    關聯: 執行起迄：2014/12/01~2016/05/31
    103-2511-S-004-006
    数据类型: report
    显示于类别:[法律學系] 國科會研究計畫

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