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https://nccur.lib.nccu.edu.tw/handle/140.119/117179
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| Title: | 台北市不動產價格泡沫之探討 |
| Authors: | 曾懷萱
林左裕 |
| Contributors: | 地政系 |
| Keywords: | 泡沫經濟;房價基本價值;貸款成數
Bubble Economy;the fundamental value of the housing price;loan-to-value |
| Date: | 2016-03 |
| Issue Date: | 2018-05-16 16:01:09 (UTC+8) |
| Abstract: | 泡沫經濟生於投機行為而導致市場價格大起大落，可謂市場經濟失衡的一種現象，換言之，雖然
價格高漲並非絕對就是泡沫經濟的狀態，但價格高漲卻是泡沫經濟的表徵。在寬鬆貨幣政策下，政府
大量印鈔，若經濟成長速度未跟上貨幣供給速度，易使資金流入實質資產，造成短期內房價不斷攀升，
呈現非理性繁榮的現象。過去相關文獻多研究台北市是否存在泡沫化現象(張金鶚2009)，較少研究台
北市各行政區的泡沫化現象，然而各個行政區內存在不同條件之差異，如交通條件與生活機能等因素，
故各區內房價泡沫程度並不相同。根據信義房價指數編列的全台都會區季指數，自2013年第一季至
2014年第一季間，台北市房價增長率為4.9%，顯示在短期內資金快速挹注於房地產市場，高房價的情
況導致民眾購屋能力下降，根據相關研究亦指出台北市房貸負擔率平均為35.36%，房價所得比為15.01
倍。本研究將以台北市士林區、大同區、大安區、中山區、中正區、北投區、松山區、信義區、南港
區、萬華區、內湖區、文山區等12個行政區作為研究對象，採取市場萃取法，並運用資金加權平均成
本理論計算房價之基本價值，比較房價基本價值和市場價格的落差，並透過不同的貸款成數及出租費
用比下進行敏感性分析。依據分析結果探討相關影響因素，以利未來政策思考的方向，研究結果建議
政府在針對不同行政區之房價泡沫處理上提出解決之道，方可能得到預期的政策效果。
The formation of Bubble Economy mostly resulting from the speculation on the market induces the price to
go up and down acutely. In other words, though the high price does not mean the Bubble Economy, it`s the
phenomenon of Bubble Economy. Under the loose monetary policy, the government prints abundant money,
and if the speed of the economic growth cannot catch up with the speed of money supply, it will cause funds
to flow into the real asset market, leading the house price to bubble up continuously within a short-term
period and presenting the irrational exuberance. Most of related papers in the past focused on the Bubble
Economy in whole Taipei City instead of each administrative district in Taipei City. However, each
administrative district has different conditions, such as traffic conditions and living facilities, from one
another. Hence, the degree of housing bubbles in each administrative district is different. According to the
statistics report of the Sinyi Housing Price Index, from 2013Q1 to 2014Q1, the housing price in Taipei City
has raised about 4.9%, which indicated the fact that a lot of funds were poured into the real estate market, and
led the housing price to rise rapidly in the short run. This situation makes people who really need a house
cannot afford the housing price. Furthermore, related research has once pointed out that the average loan
burden ratio was up to 35.36% and ratio of the housing price to income was 15.01 in Taipei City. This
research uses 12 administrative districts, including Shilin Dist., Datong Dist., Daan Dist., Zhongshan Dist.,
Zhongzheng Dist., Beitou Dist., Songshan Dist., Xinyi Dist., Nangang Dist., Wanhua Dist., Neihu Dist. and
Wenshan Dist. in Taipei City, as research objects. Additionally, this research uses Weighted Average Cost of
Capital to calculate the fundamental value of the housing price, and to explain the analysis of sensitivity
through different loan-to-value ratios and different rental expense ratios. This research finds out the
contributing factors based on the results of analyzing data, and provides suggestions for the policy-making
direction in the future. |
| Relation: | 土地問題研究季刊, 15卷1期 , pp.83-105 |
| Data Type: | article |
| DOI 連結: | http://dx.doi.org/10.29604/BGYY |
| DOI: | 10.29604/BGYY |
| Appears in Collections: | [地政學系] 期刊論文
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Files in This Item:
| File |
Description |
Size | Format | |
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| T416206.pdf | | 2035Kb | Adobe PDF2 | 299 | View/Open |
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