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    题名: 經理人盈餘預測四捨五入之動機，與分析師盈餘預測四捨五入之探討
    作者: 林禹銘
    贡献者: 會計學系
    关键词: 四捨五入行為;分析師盈餘預測;經理人盈餘預測;分析師報導
    heaping;rounding;earnings forecasts;analyst forecast;managerial guidance;analyst coverage
    日期: 2014
    上传时间: 2017-12-25 15:18:45 (UTC+8)
    摘要: 本計畫主要研究投資者形成盈餘預期的重要來源─分析師的盈餘預測及經理人的盈餘預測。本文首先探究影響分析師盈餘預測四捨五入的因素；當目前其他研究都著重在分析師本身特性及公司本身特性等原因，我們聚焦在經理人，討論經理人盈餘預測的特質乃至於其四捨五入，對分析師盈餘預測的四捨五入是否有影響。此外，我們也探討影響經理人盈餘預測四捨五入的可能因素，是否還包括為達成分析師盈餘預測數字為目的。本文另討論“分析師報導“此一因素，對經理人盈餘預測四捨五入的影響，探究經理人是否重視分析師報導，繼而針對分析師報導的變化採取相關行動等。本研究發現了:經理人盈餘預測的特性乃至於其四捨五入，對分析師盈餘預測的四捨五入的確有影響。此外，本文也證實:為“達成或超過分析師盈餘預測數字“此一目的，經理人有可能將盈餘預測四捨五入。而本文亦顯示:“分析師報導“此一因素，對經理人盈餘預測四捨五入的行為的確有一定的影響力。 本研究有別於目前其他研究都著重在分析師本身特性及公司本身特性的探討，可補充相關研究的不足；而本文有關分析師盈餘預測及經理人盈餘預測背後動機的討論，亦對業界和投資者均有一定的參考價值。
    Forecasts made by analysts and managers are both important sources of information for investors in developing firm-level earnings expectations. This fact underscores the significance of researching the issue of the properties of analyst and management forecasts. My paper shows that management disclosures, or even managers’ rounding, have a certain influence on analysts’ rounding, especially in the environment with information asymmetry. Besides, my paper move on to study the roles played by managers’ rounding to achieve the goal of meeting analysts’ forecasts, which has drawn a more complete picture and delivered a certain level of innovation on relevant issues by showing that the case meeting analysts’ forecasts increases as rounding in managers‘ forecasts decreases. Regarding the impact of analyst coverage on managers’ rounding, many studies point out the possibility that managers value analyst coverage, but only limited research has shown what actions managers take to gain or retain coverage. My research complements this view by showing that managers are willing to take less rounding in order to recoup losses of analysts, implying that managers perceive analyst coverage to be valuable. This is another contribution of this paper.
    關聯: 執行起迄：2014/08/01~2015/07/31
    103-2410-H-004-102
    数据类型: report
    显示于类别:[會計學系] 國科會研究計畫

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    103-2410-H-004-102.pdf785KbAdobe PDF2239检视/开启


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