政大機構典藏-National Chengchi University Institutional Repository(NCCUR):Item 140.119/114319
English  |  正體中文  |  简体中文  |  Post-Print筆數 : 27 |  全文筆數/總筆數 : 113648/144635 (79%)
造訪人次 : 51599246      線上人數 : 517
RC Version 6.0 © Powered By DSPACE, MIT. Enhanced by NTU Library IR team.
搜尋範圍 查詢小技巧：
  • 您可在西文檢索詞彙前後加上"雙引號"，以獲取較精準的檢索結果
  • 若欲以作者姓名搜尋，建議至進階搜尋限定作者欄位，可獲得較完整資料
    •  進階搜尋


    請使用永久網址來引用或連結此文件: https://nccur.lib.nccu.edu.tw/handle/140.119/114319


    題名: 探討總統施政評價如何影響地方選舉─以2009年縣市長選舉為例
    The Impact of President`s Performance on Taiwan`s Local Elections - Analyzing the 2009 Magistrate Elections
    作者: 俞振華
    Yu, Eric Chen-Hua
    關鍵詞: 回溯性投票;公民複決式投票;地方選舉;施政評價
    retrospective voting ； referendum voting ； local election ； assessment of job performance
    日期: 2012-05
    上傳時間: 2017-11-02 15:13:00 (UTC+8)
    摘要: 國民黨在2008年立委及總統大選雖然大獲全勝，從民進黨手中取回政權，但勝選的氣勢卻沒有維持多久，很快地在隔年縣市長選舉中就以「小敗」收場。解釋2009年縣市長選舉結果的觀點不外乎下列兩者：第一、執政黨的支持者冷漠不出來投票，第二、部分原本支持國民黨的選民轉向支持民進黨。而不論是哪一種觀點，所立基的假設皆為：民眾對執政黨的施政評價影響了他們在地方選舉中的投票行為。本研究旨在探討上述假設，認為即便是地方選舉，民眾仍會回溯中央政府的施政表現，並做為其在地方選舉中是否持續支持執政黨的依據。本研究分析選舉前的民意調查資料後發現，民眾對馬英九的滿意度、民眾對中央政策是否影響其個人經濟情況、及民眾對整體經濟情況的評估等三項因素，皆會影響他們的投票意向。總之，本研究發現，「公民複決式」的投票模型適當地解釋了2009年縣市長選舉中的選民行為，即執政者的施政績效對於「期中」地方（次級）選舉中的選民投票行為具有舉足輕重的影響力。
    Taiwan`s ruling party, Kuomintang (KMT), handed a loss to the opposition party, Democratic Progressive Party (DPP), in the 2009 Magistrate Elections. The conventional wisdom suggests two competing arguments to interpret the election results-while some argued that the KMT`s loss was mainly due to the lack of partisan mobilization within the KMT, some posited that it was because a significant proportion of voters changed their voting preferences from the KMT to the DPP between the 2008 national and 2009 local elections.In fact, both arguments share the same premise: there exists a linkage between the performance of the ruling party (in the central government) and its electoral prospect in local elections. Specifically, the performance of President Ma has a substantial impact on the 2009 local election. This study utilizes survey data to verify such premise. Our data analysis shows that a voter`s assessments on President Ma`s job performance as well as on general and personal economic conditions affect his/her voting intention. In other words, we found that the ”referendum voting model,” in which voters caste their votes in midterm elections on a basis of their evaluations of the ruling party, properly explains voting behavior in Taiwan`s midterm elections such as the 2009 local elections.
    關聯: 選舉研究 , 19(1) , 69-95
    資料類型: article
    DOI 連結: http://dx.doi.org/10.6612%2ftjes.2012.19.01.69-95
    DOI: 10.6612/tjes.2012.19.01.69-95
    顯示於類別:[選舉研究 TSSCI] 期刊論文

    文件中的檔案:

    檔案 描述 大小格式瀏覽次數
    19(1)(069-095).pdf1535KbAdobe PDF2488檢視/開啟


    在政大典藏中所有的資料項目都受到原著作權保護.


    社群 sharing

    著作權政策宣告 Copyright Announcement
    1.本網站之數位內容為國立政治大學所收錄之機構典藏，無償提供學術研究與公眾教育等公益性使用，惟仍請適度，合理使用本網站之內容，以尊重著作權人之權益。商業上之利用，則請先取得著作權人之授權。
    The digital content of this website is part of National Chengchi University Institutional Repository. It provides free access to academic research and public education for non-commercial use. Please utilize it in a proper and reasonable manner and respect the rights of copyright owners. For commercial use, please obtain authorization from the copyright owner in advance.

    2.本網站之製作，已盡力防止侵害著作權人之權益，如仍發現本網站之數位內容有侵害著作權人權益情事者，請權利人通知本網站維護人員(nccur@nccu.edu.tw)，維護人員將立即採取移除該數位著作等補救措施。
    NCCU Institutional Repository is made to protect the interests of copyright owners. If you believe that any material on the website infringes copyright, please contact our staff(nccur@nccu.edu.tw). We will remove the work from the repository and investigate your claim.
    DSpace Software Copyright © 2002-2004  MIT &  Hewlett-Packard  /   Enhanced by   NTU Library IR team Copyright ©   - 回饋