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| Title: | 金價、油價與房價互動關係之研究
On the Dynamic Relationship among Gold, Oil and Housing Prices |
| Authors: | 陳昱廷
Chen, Yu Ting |
| Contributors: | 林左裕
Lin, Tso Yu
陳昱廷
Chen, Yu Ting |
| Keywords: | 不動產市場
原油市場
黃金市場
聯立方程模型
向量自我迴歸模型
Real estate market
Oil market
Gold market
Simultaneous equation model
Vector auto-regression model |
| Date: | 2016 |
| Issue Date: | 2017-09-13 16:08:09 (UTC+8) |
| Abstract: | Many investors around the world are eager for a better investment chances in the posterior QE era and the current low-yield environment, since global investment behaviors are quite different in real estate markets and macroeconomic situation after the 2008 financial crisis and the 2012 European sovereign debt crisis.
In the past, many scholars discussed the important findings in the relations between real estate prices and stock prices, and furthermore they explore the two factors important for the markets – wealth effect and credit effect. If investors want to invest in the stock market or real estate market, they have causal effect. In other words, they have the great impacts on each other. On the other hand, many scholars also discussed the relationship between the stock market and gold market, as well as the stock market and oil market. They also reached the conclusion that gold prices have negative relations with stock prices, and the oil prices may have a correlation with stock prices. Also, the variation in oil and gold prices has changed investors’ confidence and behaviors, having creating noticeable impacts on macroeconomic factors, such as interest and exchange rates.
Although many people realize the significance of the relationship between oil, real estate and gold prices, we seldom see research findings among asset prices. This means we can commonly explore the conclusions discussing the relations between macroeconomic factors and real estate markets, stock markets and gold markets, but cannot find a more precise discussion on real estate, oil and gold markets. Therefore, this study wants to explore the relationship among the three markets through simultaneous equation model and vector error correction model. By doing so, we can attain more precise information to predict real estate prices. Additionally, the study may have new findings to use different factors to discuss the projection of real estate prices. In general, Klotz, Lin, and Hsu, (2014) indicated that energy prices and precious metal prices have a significant relationship with monetary policies. Many researchers regard monetary policies as the main factors affecting real estate markets; specifically, commodity markets that may have the combined effects from macroeconomic factors and the stock market as what real estate markets have, and therefore we can utilize the combined effects together to have a different perspective in predicting real estate prices.
This study shows that not all oil or gold prices have significant impacts on housing prices following the 2008 financial crisis. The reason for this may be due to the different behaviors and expectations on the housing market and macroeconomic situations in the posterior QE era. Thus, according to the research from Chen and Wu (2010) and Kim and Lee (2013), the following research could further analyze human beings’ expectation on price levels of commodities to explore more effects of people’s behaviors in investment. |
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| Description: | 碩士
國立政治大學
應用經濟與社會發展英語碩士學位學程(IMES)
104266001 |
| Source URI: | http://thesis.lib.nccu.edu.tw/record/#G0104266001 |
| Data Type: | thesis |
| Appears in Collections: | [應用經濟與社會發展英語碩士學位學程 (IMES)] 學位論文
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