政大機構典藏-National Chengchi University Institutional Repository(NCCUR):Item 140.119/112792

政大機構典藏-National Chengchi University Institutional Repository(NCCUR):Item 140.119/112792

English | 正體中文 | 简体中文 | Post-Print筆數 : 27 | 全文筆數/總筆數 : 113318/144297 (79%)
造訪人次 : 51040180 線上人數 : 886

RC Version 6.0 © Powered By DSPACE, MIT. Enhanced by NTU Library IR team.

搜尋範圍

查詢小技巧：

您可在西文檢索詞彙前後加上"雙引號"，以獲取較精準的檢索結果

若欲以作者姓名搜尋，建議至進階搜尋限定作者欄位，可獲得較完整資料

進階搜尋

主頁 ‧ 登入 ‧ 上傳 ‧ 說明 ‧ 關於政大典藏 ‧ 管理

到手機版

政大機構典藏 > 國際事務學院 > 戰略與國際事務碩士在職專班 > 學位論文 > Item 140.119/112792

請使用永久網址來引用或連結此文件: https://nccur.lib.nccu.edu.tw/handle/140.119/112792

題名:	伊朗對美外交和解政策~魯哈尼總統第一任期JCPOA核協議為例 JCPOA and Iran Deal
作者:	黃泓聞
貢獻者:	鄧中堅 Teng, C.C. 黃泓聞
關鍵詞:	伊朗核協議伊朗總統魯哈尼 JCPOA Rouhani
日期:	2017
上傳時間:	2017-09-13 15:40:16 (UTC+8)
摘要:	伊朗與美國，曾經是最緊密的盟邦關係，1979年回教伊斯蘭立憲之後，經歷444天的美國駐德黑蘭大使館人質事件，兩國斷交迄今，已經38個年頭。歐巴馬8年主政後期，熱衷外交破冰，矢志留下任期內多項珍貴的外交遺產。隨著近年來，緬甸民主化，古巴與美國重新建交，地表上，至今僅存三個國家:伊朗、北韓、不丹，這三地沒有建立美國外交關係。不丹的小國外交跟隨印度政策，毋需多慮；北韓核武及飛彈測試層出不窮，六方會談從上個世紀末延續至今，牽動朝鮮半島局勢甚廣，看來也不是一朝一夕可解；伊朗問題倘若成功達陣，將是歐巴馬總統任內最卓越的外交建樹。歐巴馬第二任期，任命參議院外交委員會主席出身的凱瑞John KERRY擔任國務卿，致力於中東事務，面對核心的伊朗議題，凱瑞國務卿多次親臨維也納參與JCPOA會談，甚至在2015年7月正式協議敲定前夕，他騎自行車運動不慎摔車，導致腳傷骨折，緊急專機後送回美國就醫，由於正逢協議是否簽訂的敏感時刻，導致外界一度認為JCPOA可能面臨胎死腹中。最後，P5+1與伊朗終於在2015年7月14日簽訂JCPOA核協議。有意無意地，恰巧與標榜自由、平等、博愛的法蘭西國慶日同一天! 經過為期冗長的查核，IAEA國際原子能總署的認證無虞，距離JCPOA簽約屆滿六個月之後，在2016年1月16日，JCPOA核協議正式生效，對伊朗經濟制裁正式解禁。然則，隨著美國2016年總統大選活動開始，伊朗核議題始終是兩黨候選人主攻的熱門項目，川普批判伊朗，認定伊朗核協議是美國歷史上最糟糕的協議。多次揚言一旦就任總統，撕毀JCPOA毫不猶豫，川普的電視競選廣告，明白昭示:伊朗就是威脅美國安全的頭號敵人，排名超越北韓。川普勝選，MAGA, Make America Great Again進入現在進行式，就任隔週，即以反恐之名，暫停三個月對於7個穆斯林國家的簽證核發，同時廢除已核發有效簽證入境，引起軒然大波，其中，影響人數最多的，就是伊朗護照入境美國。隨著伊朗2017五月的總統大選，如同伊朗國內選民對於JCPOA進行一場變相公投，對於魯哈尼總統對美的外交和解政策，更是一項實質考驗。成敗與否，JCPOA都是關鍵因素，主導伊朗政治經濟的未來。 2017伊朗總統大選的同一天，川普從華府開啟任內第一趟外交之旅，直飛沙烏地阿拉伯首都利雅德，不僅簽下總金額超過美金1100億的軍備合約，還有沙烏地參與美國國內基礎建設2000億美金的投資，在利雅德召開的阿拉伯穆斯林美國高峰會Arab Islamic American Summit，川普登高一呼，儼然成為孤立伊朗陣營的誓師大會。會議落幕兩週，GCC成員國卡達0605外交斷交潮湧現，沙烏地王室直指卡達王室暗助ISIS，外界卻解讀:卡達、伊朗雙邊關係緊密，導致GCC成員國自清門戶。隨即，0607伊朗首都德黑蘭發生恐怖攻擊，目標鎖定伊朗國會大樓與何梅尼聖陵。伊朗與美國外交關係分離38年，時而劍拔弩張，時而和解曙光，未來的十載，不論雙方變化分歧如何，JCPOA核協議勢必扮演關鍵變數。這也是我長期觀察伊朗議題，作為我研究主題的原委，隨著美國國會這段期間持續加大對伊朗核協議監督力道，加上川普本身對以色列勢力的極友好態度，川普任期內的美國伊朗雙方關係，恐怕很難再恢復前任歐巴馬任期最後的大和解氛圍。最後，我也要特別感謝我的指導教授鄧中堅博士，過去一年來，孜孜不倦提供外交事務觀點，提攜後輩。還有兩位優秀的論文口試委員: 盧業中博士與胡瑞舟博士，也提供精闢的學術觀點，在此同時感謝。 Iran and the United States, once the most reliable allies relations. However, the Islamic Islamic Constitution occurred in 1979, experienced 444 days of the US embassy in Tehran hostage, the two countries have been disconnected so far.For the past 38 years. During the President Barack Obama’s eight years, MORE Friends are better than Foes, he determined to leave a number of precious foreign diplomatic LEGACY. With the recent democratization of Myanmar, Cuba in the half century to rebuild diplomatic relations with US. So far only three countries left : Iran, North Korea and Bhutan,where there are no US diplomatic relations. Bhutan’s diplomacy follows the India policy, no need to worry about; North Korea nuclear weapons and missile testing seems endless, six-party talks back to 1990s, still with affecting to the Korean Peninsula, the situation is very wide, it’s hard to find the instant solution; Seeming if the problem of Iran, The array will be the most outstanding diplomatic mission to President Barack Obama. Obama`s second term, the appointment of the Senate Foreign Affairs Committee Chairman John KERRY, as Secretary of State, especially in charge of the Middle East affairs. He focused of the core of the Iranian issue, many times in Vienna to participate in the JCPOA talks. Even on the eve of the formal agreement, his foot was injured because of bicycle crash. When Secretary KERRY was sent back to the United States for medical treatment, whether the contract signed or not, such a sensitive moment, many analysists thought that JCPOA may face to the END. Fortunely, P5 + 1 and Iran finally signed JCPOA on July 14th, just the same National Day with FRANCE, which stands for Liberté, Égalité, Fraternité. After a long term verification and certification by IAEA ,International Atomic Energy Agency`s. On the January 16, 2016, JCPOA agreement came into effect, the Iranian economic sanctions officially lifted. However, with the beginning of the US presidential election in 2016, the Iranian nuclear issue has always been a popular project of the two party candidates, TRUMP criticized Iran, that the Iranian nuclear agreement is one of the worst of the US agreement history. He threatened to tear up JCPOA many times. TRUMP’s television campaign advertising, clearly that: Iran is the number one threat to US security enemy, ranking above North Korea. Since TRUMP won the election，MAGA, Make America Great Again, moving into the current processing, just 5 days after the Inauguration, he suspended for three months for seven Muslim countries issued a visa, and abolished has issued a valid visa entry. Meanwhile, the largest number is the Iranian passport entry to the United States….because of Anti-Terrorism. With the Iranian 2017 Presidential election in May, similar to Iran`s domestic voters for JCPOA, still a GOOD DEAL or NOT? For President Rouhani`s diplomatic reconciliation policy to the United States, is also a true REVIEW by all Iranian Citizens. Success or Failure, JCPOA is the key factor, leading the future of Iran`s Politic and Economy. On Friday , May 19th, 2017, the same day for Iran`s Presidential Election day, TRUMP opened the first official foreign trip as the 45th US President, flying directly to Saudi Arabia`s capital Riyadh. More than winning the 110 billion US dollars of military contracts, Saudi agreed to participate US domestic infrastructure investment of 200 billion US dollars. During the Arab Islamic American Summit, TRUMP’s speech reflected to be the isolation of the IRAN. Just 2 weeks later, Qatar faced the diplomatic dispute between 9 countries, because of the Saudi decision. Not only Qatar royal family sponsored the ISIS, but also Qatar try to strengthen Iran bilateral relations. Meanwhile, Tehran city was under the terrorist attacks, targeting the Iranian parliament building and the Khomeini Holy Mausoleum. Iran and the United States diplomatic relations separated 38 years, Mostly tense, sometimes relax. In the next decade, regardless of differences between the two sides how, JCPOA is bound to play a key factor. This is also my long-term observation of the IRAN issue. I specially thank to my instructor Dr. C.C. TENG. For the past 12 months, he provided Professional Diplomatic viewpoints to me. And furthermore, two excellent Scholars: Dr. Y.C. Lu and Dr. R.C. Hu, both point a brilliant academic point of view. Thanks YOU ALL.
參考文獻:	參考書目: 中文鈕先鍾。<<核子武器與世界政治>>。台北: 台灣商務印書館，民國70年。林碧炤、鄧中堅編。<<金磚國家俄羅斯及歐亞地區研究>>。台北: 五南圖書，民國101年。洪秀菊。 <<危機決策、處理、談判美伊人質危機個案>> 。台北 : 商鼎文化，民國88年。關中。<<意識型態與美國外交政策>>。台北: 台灣商務印書館，民國94年。丹尼爾尤金(Daniel Yergin)。<<石油世紀>> (The Prize )，薛絢譯。台北: 時報文化，民國100年。唐納川普(Donald Trump)。<<總統川普>>(GREAT AGAIN)，朱崇旻譯。台北: 時報文化，民國106年。詹姆斯馬里歐特(James Marriott)、米卡米里歐-帕魯洛(Mika Minoio-Paluello)。<<黑絲路>>(The Oil Road)，黃煜文譯。台北: 城邦文化，民國103年。楊永明。<<國際關係>>。台北 : 前程文化，民國99年。王央成編。<<戰略與區域安全>>。台北: 國防大學戰略研究所，民國95年。布里辛斯基(Zbigniew Brzezinski)。<<美國的抉擇>>(The Choice: Global Domination or Global Leadership)，郭希誠譯。台北: 左岸文化，民國93年。蕭曦清。<<中東風雲>>。台北: 牧村圖書，民國92年。丁佩華。<<俄羅斯石油地位的博弈>>。上海: 上海人民出版社，2009。范鴻達。<<伊朗與美國 : 從朋友到仇敵>>。北京: 新華出版社，2012。李春放。<<伊朗危機與冷戰起源 1941~1947年>>。北京: 社會科學文獻出版社，2007。菲利普賽比耶¬-洛佩茲(Philippe Sebille-Lopez)。<<石油地緣政治>>(Geopolitiques du petrole) 。北京: 社會科學文獻出版社，2006。英文 Dershowitz, Alan. The Case against The IRAN DEAL. New York: A Gatestone Institute Publication, 2015 Patrikarkos, David. Nuclear IRAN. New York: L.B. Tauris & Co Ltd, 2012 Landler, Mark. Alter Egos. New York: Random House LLC, 2016 Chollet, Derek. The Long Game. New York: Public Affairs, 2016
描述:	碩士國立政治大學外交學系戰略與國際事務碩士在職專班 100922008
資料來源:	http://thesis.lib.nccu.edu.tw/record/#G1009220081
資料類型:	thesis
顯示於類別:	[戰略與國際事務碩士在職專班] 學位論文

文件中的檔案:

檔案	大小	格式	瀏覽次數
008101.pdf	2264Kb	Adobe PDF2	140	檢視/開啟

在政大典藏中所有的資料項目都受到原著作權保護.

社群 sharing

著作權政策宣告 Copyright Announcement

1.本網站之數位內容為國立政治大學所收錄之機構典藏，無償提供學術研究與公眾教育等公益性使用，惟仍請適度，合理使用本網站之內容，以尊重著作權人之權益。商業上之利用，則請先取得著作權人之授權。
The digital content of this website is part of National Chengchi University Institutional Repository. It provides free access to academic research and public education for non-commercial use. Please utilize it in a proper and reasonable manner and respect the rights of copyright owners. For commercial use, please obtain authorization from the copyright owner in advance.

2.本網站之製作，已盡力防止侵害著作權人之權益，如仍發現本網站之數位內容有侵害著作權人權益情事者，請權利人通知本網站維護人員(nccur@nccu.edu.tw)，維護人員將立即採取移除該數位著作等補救措施。
NCCU Institutional Repository is made to protect the interests of copyright owners. If you believe that any material on the website infringes copyright, please contact our staff(nccur@nccu.edu.tw). We will remove the work from the repository and investigate your claim.

DSpace Software Copyright © 2002-2004 MIT & Hewlett-Packard / Enhanced by NTU Library IR team Copyright © - 回饋