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    题名: 選舉競爭程度、資訊與投票率－以2005-2014年直轄市/縣市議員選舉為例
    Electoral Competition, Information and Voter Turnout-The Case of the 2005-2014 Local Council Elections
    作者: 陳宏哲
    Chen, Hung Che
    贡献者: 蔡宗漢
    Tsai, Tsung-Han
    陳宏哲
    Chen, Hung Che
    关键词: 投票率
    選舉競爭程度
    資訊
    地方議員選舉
    固定效果模型
    Voter turnout
    Electoral competition
    Information
    Local councilor election
    Fixed effect model
    日期: 2017
    上传时间: 2017-09-13 15:16:20 (UTC+8)
    摘要: 選舉參與是民主政治運作的重要條件之一，如果過多的選民不願意參與投票，會對於民主政治的運作造成負面的影響。因此本研究要回答的問題是，影響台灣地方議員選舉投票率高低的因素為何？雖然現存多數的文獻發現選舉競爭程度會影響投票率，然而，選舉競爭程度如何影響選民的選舉參與行為，卻存在三個迥異的看法。第一，有些研究指出選舉競爭程度愈高，會帶來愈高的投票率。第二，有些研究發現選舉競爭程度並不會影響投票率。第三，有些文獻認為，選舉競爭程度對於投票率的正向影響效果，在不同的條件之下會發揮不一樣的作用。本文延續第三種觀點，進一步主張選舉競爭程度對於選民投票參與的影響，會因為選民接收選舉資訊量的多寡而有不同的效果。
    本研究從理性抉擇的觀點出發，主要的論點是，因為地方層級選舉的資訊較不充足，選民須要仰賴政治菁英來提供資訊。在政治菁英較為積極地從事選舉動員，以及較為有效地進行選戰動員的時候，選民會更為容易掌握選舉資訊，亦即資訊成本愈低，在投票時愈容易做抉擇。當選舉競爭愈激烈時，則投票率會愈高。具體來說，因為在台灣的地方議員選舉是採用複數選區單記不可讓渡選制，本文分別從選區同黨候選人人數高低，以及現任者參選比例大小，來探討選舉競爭程度對於投票率的影響效果。本文認為，在較多位同黨候選人參與的選區裡，當選舉相當競爭時，因為同時牽涉黨際與黨內之間的競爭，所以候選人會更為積極地動員，在選舉時選民需要付出的資訊成本就較低，換言之，其對於選舉資訊的掌握度會較佳，愈容易做投票抉擇。本文的第一假設是，選舉競爭程度對於投票率的影響效果，在平均同黨候選人人數較高的選區中，會發揮更為明顯的正向影響作用。再者，本研究主張，在現任者參選比例較高的選區中，因為現任者掌握許多資源，在較為競爭的選戰中，現任者可以運用這些資源來競選，做較有效地動員，選民參與投票時須付出的資訊成本就較低，換句話說，選民對於選舉資訊的掌握度會較好，愈容易進行投票。本研究的第二個假設是，選舉競爭程度對於投票率的影響效果，在現任參選者比例較高的選區裡，會發揮更為明顯的正向影響作用。
    本研究以2005至2014年地方議員選舉縱橫資料，使用固定效果模型進行分析。首先，研究發現，選舉的競爭程度對於投票率的影響效果，在平均同黨候選人人數較高的選區中，會發揮更為明顯的正向影響作用，符合本文假設一的預期。其次，研究顯示，選舉的競爭程度對於投票率的影響效果，在現任者參選比例較高的選區裡，會發揮更為明顯的正向影響作用，與本研究假設二的預期一致。
    在研究的貢獻上，第一，目前國內的相關研究中，有關地方議員選舉投票率的文獻仍然較少，本文從選舉競爭、動員和資訊的角度解釋之，彌補過去研究的不足之處。第二，過去國內外的研究大多認為，在選舉競爭程度愈強的選舉中，有愈高的投票率，本文的理論貢獻在於，進一步強調選舉競爭程度對於投票率的影響，在選民更容易接收選舉資訊時，會有更為明顯的正向影響效果。第三，在資料蒐集的部分，本研究自不同的資料庫中（中央選舉委員會、政治大學選舉研究中心、政府資料開放平台、各縣市統計年報、中華民國人口統計年刊、台閩地區人口統計、中華民國統計資訊網縣市重要統計指標查詢系統、全國客家人口基礎資料調查研究、行政院主計總處農林漁牧業普查以及新竹市政府民政處各里里情沿革）整合政治、經濟以及社會層面的統計資料，這個資料庫可以提供給未來的研究使用與參考。第四，本研究建立一個可以應用在複數選區單記不可讓渡選舉制度下的競爭程度測量指標，相較於過去文獻所採用的測量指標只關注最後一名勝選者和第一名敗選者的得票率差距，本文建立的指標能考量到選區中每一位候選人的得票情形。第五，在統計方法上，有別於國內過去的研究大多使用單一年度的橫斷面資料進行分析，本文使用跨年度與跨選區的縱橫資料，並以固定效果模型進行分析，可以得到較為嚴謹的推論結果。第六，在實際政策的建議與政治意涵上，本研究認為，首先，因為複數選區單記不可讓渡選制的特殊性，導致黨內競爭和候選人主義興起，造成在選舉高度競爭時，有刺激投票參與的正面效果。建議往後政府單位或學界在進行選制調整或改革的討論時能關注與深思這個議題。其次，在台灣，這幾年國內的政治發展興起一股新人參政熱潮，有一派的說法認為，新人投入選舉可以激起對於既有政治人物不滿意的選民參與投票。然而本研究卻發現，因為現任參選者掌握一定的資源，有利於進行動員，當現任者參選比例愈高時，在高度競爭的選舉中，有促進投票參與的正向效果。換言之，很多的新人參與選舉是否能必然導致選民參與投票，這個說法有待更進一步觀察與討論。
    Electoral participation is vital in the favorable performance of a democratic political system; therefore, if an excessive amount of voters is absent from voting, the function of a democratic political system will be impacted negatively. Hence, the research question is that, what factors influence the voter turnout in the Taiwanese local council elections during the period from 2005 to 2014. The existing literature indicates three different point of views: some scholars claim that, the higher the degree of competition, the higher the voter turnout; some deny the relation between the degree of electoral competition and voter turnout; and still some literature points out that, under some specific conditions, the degree of electoral competition will have a more positive influence on voter turnout. This paper agrees with the last view by arguing that the fact that voter turnout are influenced differently by electoral competition in varying circumstances has to do with the amount of electoral information voters receive.
    From the view of rational choice, because the local elections are generally low- information, it is important for voter to acquire information from political elites, the main argument of this research is that, voters will be more likely to master information, and that is, the information costs are lower, when political elites are more active and effective in electoral mobilization; consequently, the voters can make the decision more easily. The more intense elections are, the higher the voter turnout will be. Specifically, under the single-nontransferable vote（SNTV）electoral system in Taiwan, this paper discusses the effect of electoral competition on the turnout by the number of constituency candidates in the same party and the proportion of the incumbent candidates. This paper consider, when there are more candidates from the same party in a constituency and the degree of competition is higher, the candidates will face more inter-party and intra-party competition, and therefore, will devote to electoral mobilization more actively, and the information costs of the voters will be lower. In other words, voters with more electoral information can vote easily. Basically, the first hypothesis of this article is that the effect of competition on voter turnout will obviously occur when the number of constituency candidates in the same party is higher. In addition, when there are more incumbent candidates in a constituency and the degree of competition is higher, they are with more resources to campaign and to inform and mobilize voters. In other words, voters with more electoral information can vote easily. Therefore, the second hypothesis is that the effect of competition on voter turnout will obviously occur when the proportion of the incumbent candidates is higher.
    This study uses the fixed effect model to analyze the time series cross section data in the Taiwanese local council elections during the period from 2005 to 2014. First of all, the study discovers that, the effect of competition on voter turnout will obviously occur when the number of constituency candidates from the same party is higher and thus, coincide with the first hypothesis. Second, the study shows that, the effect of competition on voter turnout will also obviously occur when the proportion of the incumbent candidates is higher, and therefore, coincide with the second hypothesis.
    As to the contribution of this study, first of all, this article discusses local council elections voter turnout in Taiwan by electoral competition, mobilization and information and to fill a gap. Second, many existing literature claims the higher the degree of competition, the higher the voter turnout. This paper argues that, voters are influenced differently by electoral competition under specific conditions, namely, varying amount of electoral information voters receive. Thirdly, in the part of the data collection, this study integrates political, economic and social data from several databases that can be useful references for future researches. Fourthly, compared to the measurement of the former literature, which only considers the percentage of votes obtained gap between last winner and the first loser, this study establishes a measure of the electoral competition, which, under the SNTV electoral system, takes the percentage of votes of all individual candidates in the same constituency into account. Moreover, different from the methodology of many former literature in Taiwan, the paper uses time series cross section data and the fixed effect model that can be get more rigorous research outcome. Last but not least, the paper proposes some policy suggestions and political implications. The features of SNTV electoral system result in intense intra-party competition and candidate-centric politics, and consequently, lead to higher voter turnout. The paper suggests that, it is essential to take this argument into account, when it comes to potential reform of electoral system. And moreover, some claim that, in the past few years, more and more new candidates participate in elections, which increases unsatisfied voters’ willingness to vote. However, the study finds out that, with the incumbent candidates possessing more resources, the effect of competition on voter turnout will obviously occur when the proportion of the incumbent candidates is higher. In other words, the argument that whether there are lots of new candidates to participate in the election would necessarily promote voters to participate in the election or not should be further observed and discussed.
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