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| Title: | 貸款利率、成數與住宅價格關聯性之研究-以台北市及新北市為例
The study of relationships among mortgage interest rate, loan to value (LTV) ratio, and housing price—by Taipei and new Taipei city cases |
| Authors: | 王聖東 |
| Contributors: | 林沛靜
江穎慧
王聖東 |
| Keywords: | 貸款成數
貸款利率
住宅價格
住宅金融
選擇性信用管制政策
貨幣政策
購屋需求族群
Loan to Value (LTV)
Mortgage interest rate
Housing price
Residential finance
The selective credit control policy
Monetary policy
Housing demand groups |
| Date: | 2017 |
| Issue Date: | 2017-07-31 11:17:22 (UTC+8) |
| Abstract: | 房地產市場與銀行放款業務間，因為存在著密不可分之關係，本研究主要目的為釐清貸款利率與貸款成數對住宅價格是否具有顯著影響，進而探討中央銀行之選擇性信用管制政策，對於貸款利率、貸款成數與住宅價格之間，是否具有政策效果，最後再針對不同的需求族群，給予購屋行為選擇之參考或為銀行選擇貸款客群之參考。
本研究透過實證分析發現，貸款成數對於住宅價格為正向顯著影響，但貸款利率對住宅價格，則未呈現顯著影響。而政府之選擇性信用管制措施，在實證結果中，並未達到抑制房價之目的。但是在實施信用管制之後，購屋者對與貸款利率，相對更為敏感。在需求族群的分析上，發現高所得族群相對較重視貸款利率，而中所得與低所得族群，則相對較重視貸款成數。低年齡族群較高年齡族群而言，相對較為重視貸款利率之增加。
對於持續關心貸款利率、成數與住宅價格關聯之研究者，本研究建議後續研究者在資料取得之允許下，可嘗試拉長研究期間，及考慮增加了解政策鬆綁後之影響。在資料完整度許可下，建議可以增加個人屬性變數，並考量都更效應之變數。
There is an inextricably linkage between the real estate market and the bank lending business. The main purpose of this study is to identify the relationships among mortgage interest rate, loan to value (LTV) ratio, and housing price. Further, we discuss the policy effect among them, due to the central bank`s selective credit control policy. Finally, the supply-demand sides, our study hopes to give the choice of purchase behavior on demand groups or the selection of bank on loan-customers
In our study, we found that the loan to value ratio has a significant positive effect on the housing price, but the mortgage interest rate has no significant effect on the housing price. In the empirical results, we found that the government`s selective credit control policy did not achieve the purpose of curbing housing prices. However, after the implementation of selective credit control policy, the housing-buyer is relatively more sensitive to the mortgage interest rate. In the analysis of demand groups, the study found that high-income groups pay more attention to the mortgage interest rate. However, the middle-income and low-income groups emphasize on loan to value relative to the high-income groups. Finally, the young age groups relatively emphasize on the increase of the mortgage interest rates.
For the researchers who continue to care about the relationships among mortgage interest rate, loan to value ratio, and housing price, the study suggests that follow-up researchers, with the permission of the data, may attempt to lengthen the study period and consider increasing the impact of easing the policy. Under the data integrity permission, it is advisable to add personal attribute variables and take into account the variables of the urban renewal effect. |
| Reference: | 一、學位論文
1.王景澤(2015)，「住宅負擔能力、自備款資金與消費行為關係之研究」，國立政治大學地政研究所碩士論文。
2.林佩賢(2015)，「貨幣政策對房地產價格非線性影響之研究-以台北、上海為例」，私立淡江大學財務金融學系碩士論文。
3.吳錦碧(2002)，「台北市與高雄市成屋價格影響因素比較之研究」，私立朝陽科技大學企業管理研究所碩士論文。
4.吳玉菁(2009)，「貸款利率、擔保品與借款者型態之關係-商業銀行個案研究」，私立中原大學國際貿易研究所碩士論文。
5.洪新宜（2004），「房價，借貸限制與貨幣政策」，國立台灣大學經濟研究所碩士論文。
6.陳宣宇(2007)，「台北市購屋貸款與可能影響因子彈性之探討」，國立台北大學經濟研究所碩士論文。
7.張嘉純（2010），「台灣房地產價格與房屋貸款之關聯性研究」，國立台灣大學社會科學院國家發展研究所碩士論文。
二、期刊論文
1.王健安(2016)，「限制貸款成數的總體謹慎金融監理政策真能降低房價嗎？房貸成長率與房市交易價量關係之研究」，2016科技部計畫(MOST 105-2410-H-260-033)初稿的初步與部分研究成果。
2.江百信、張金鶚(1995)，「我國購屋貸款放款條件之研究」，住宅學報，3(1)，1-20。
3.林左裕(2012)，「貨幣政策與房價的關係」，國科會研究計畫報告。
4.林秋瑾、黃珮玲(1995)，「住宅價格與總體經濟變數關係之研究-以向量自我迴歸模式（VAR ）進行實證分析」，政治大學學報，71，143-159。
5.林秋瑾、楊宗憲、張金鶚，1996，「住宅價格指數之研究-以台北市為例」，住宅學報，4：1-30。
6.林祖嘉、馬毓駿(2007)，「特徵方程式大量估價法在台灣不動產市場之應用」，住宅學報，16(2)，1-22。
7.吳森田（1994），「所得、貨幣與房價—近二十年台北地區的觀察」，住宅學報，2，49-65。
8.陳柏如(2015），「臺灣房價與貸款成數、房屋使用者成本相關性的檢驗」，台北大學經濟研究，51(2)，225-256。
9.陳俊有、周美伶、蔡怡純、陳明吉(2014)，「住宅需求的價格、所得、利率彈性」，2014年聯合年會暨論文研討會大會住宅學會, 住宅學會。
10.陳旭昇、吳聰敏(2010)，「台灣貨幣政策法則之檢視」，經濟論文，第38卷第1期，頁33-59。
11.陳裴紋(2015)，「房價波動對中央銀行之政策意涵－台灣的個案研究」，中央銀行季刊，37(3)，5-48。
12.張金鶚、彭建文(2000)，「總體經濟對房地產景氣影響之研究」，國科會人文及社會科學彙刊，3(10)，330-343。
13.張金鶚、楊宗憲、洪御仁，2008，「中古屋及預售屋房價指數之建立、評估與整合-台北市之實證分析」，住宅學報，17(2)：13-35。
14.張怡文、江穎慧、張金鶚(2009)，「分量迴歸在大量估價模型之應用-非典型住宅估價之改進」，都市與計劃，36(3)：281-304。
15.彭建文、林秋瑾、周美伶(2014)，「住宅需求動向調查」，第12卷，第1期，內政部營建署委託中華民國住宅學會調查報告。
16.楊宗憲、蘇倖慧(2011)，「迎毗設施與鄰避設施對住宅價格影響之研究」，住宅學報，20(2)：61-80。
17.龔永香、江穎慧、張金鶚(2007)，「客觀標準化不動產估價之可行性分析-市場比較法應用於大量估價」，住宅學報，16(2)：23-42。
三、專書
張金鶚、花敬群、彭建文、楊宗憲(2013)，「房地產市場分析理論與實務」，台北，華泰。
四、國外期刊論文
1.Aspachs-Bracons, O. and P. Rabanal, 2010, “The Effects of Housing Prices and Monetary Policy in a Currency Union,” paper prepared for Monetary Policy Lessons from the Global Crisis, a conference for the International Journal of Central Banking, hosted by the Bank of Japan, September 16-17.
2.Adelino, M. A., A. Schoar, and F. Severino, 2012, “Credit Supply and House Prices: Evidence from Mortgage Market Segmentation,” NBER Working Paper, No. 17832.
3.BAFFOE-BONNIE, J., 1998, “The Dynamic Impact of Macroeconomic Aggregates on Housing Prices and Stock of Houses: A National and Regional Analysis”, Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, 17:2, 179-197.
4.Dokko, J., B. Doyle, M. T. Kiley, J. Kim, J. Sim, and S. Van den Heuvel , 2009, “Monetary Policy and the Housing Bubble,” FEDS Working Paper, 49.
5.Duca1, J.V., Muellbauer, J., & Murphy, A., 2012,” Shifting Credit Standards and the Boom and Bust in U.S. House Prices: Time Series Evidence from the Past Three Decades”, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas Working Paper No. 1104.
6.Follain, J.R. and Malpezzi, S., 1980, “Dissecting Housing Value and Rent”, Washington, DC: The Urban Institute.
7.Fuster, A. and B. Zafar, 2014, “The Sensitivity of Housing Demand to Financing Conditions: Evidence from a Survey,” FRB of New York Staff Reports, No. 702.
8.International Monetary Fund (IMF), 2009, “Lessons for Monetary Policy From Asset Price Fluctuations,” World Economic Outlook, CH3, 93-120.
9.Jansen, D.J., 2016, “Housing and mortgage dynamics: Evidence from household surveys”, DNB working paper, no. 522.
10.Glaeser, E. L., J. D. Gottlieb, and J. Gyourko, 2010, “Can Cheap Credit Explain the Housing Boom?” NBER Working Paper,No.16230.
11.Kuttner, K., 2012, “Low Interest Rates and Housing Bubbles: Still No Smoking Gun,” prepared for the “Role of Central Banks in Financial Stability: How Has It Changed?” Williams College, Department of Economics Working Paper, 2012-01.
12.Kuttner, K.N., & Shim, I., 2013,” Can non-interest rate policies stabilize housing markets?”, BIS: Working Paper, No 433, Nov.
13.Lin, V.C.C., Hua, J.C. & Huang, S. J.,2013,“The Impacts Study on Housing Affordability and Consumption Behavior by Sources of Buy-House Down payment”, AsRES International Conference , Kyoto, Japan.
14.Nellis, J.G., & Longbottom, J.A., 1981, “An Empirical Analysis of the Determination of House Prices in the United Kingdom”, Urban Studies, vol. 18 no. 1 9-21.
15.Reichert, A.K., 1990, ” The impact of interest rates, income, and employment upon regional housing prices”, The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Volume 3, Issue 4, pp 373–391.
16.Reinhart, C. M. and Reinhart V., 2011, “Pride Goes Before a Fall: Federal Reserve Policy and Asset Markets,” NBER Working Paper, No. 16815. |
| Description: | 碩士
國立政治大學
地政學系碩士在職專班
103923009 |
| Source URI: | http://thesis.lib.nccu.edu.tw/record/#G0103923009 |
| Data Type: | thesis |
| Appears in Collections: | [地政學系] 學位論文
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