政大機構典藏-National Chengchi University Institutional Repository(NCCUR):Item 140.119/111452

政大機構典藏-National Chengchi University Institutional Repository(NCCUR):Item 140.119/111452

English | 正體中文 | 简体中文 | Post-Print筆數 : 27 | 全文笔数/总笔数 : 113160/144130 (79%)
造访人次 : 50761057 在线人数 : 668

RC Version 6.0 © Powered By DSPACE, MIT. Enhanced by NTU Library IR team.

搜寻范围

查询小技巧：

您可在西文检索词汇前后加上"双引号"，以获取较精准的检索结果

若欲以作者姓名搜寻，建议至进阶搜寻限定作者字段，可获得较完整数据

进阶搜寻

主页 ‧ 登入 ‧ 上传 ‧ 说明 ‧ 关于政大典藏 ‧ 管理

到手机版

政大機構典藏 > 商學院 > 資訊管理學系 > 學位論文 > Item 140.119/111452

请使用永久网址来引用或连结此文件: https://nccur.lib.nccu.edu.tw/handle/140.119/111452

题名:	需求不確定及錯誤預期下的訂貨政策分析 Analysis of ordering policies under demand uncertainty and wrong beliefs
作者:	賴智祥 Lai, Chih-Hsiang
贡献者:	張欣綠莊皓鈞 Chang, Hsin-Lu Chuang, Hao-Chun 賴智祥 Lai, Chih-Hsiang
关键词:	報童問題錯誤預期電子零組件供應商 Newsvendor problem Wrong belief Critical fractile Scarf’s rule Electronic component distributor
日期:	2016
上传时间:	2017-07-31 10:58:26 (UTC+8)
摘要:	為了幫助首屈一指的電子零組件供應商解決其訂貨決策問題，本研究試圖去找出優於公司現有訂貨法則的訂貨政策。本研究將兩種學術上知名的訂貨政策比較於公司現有訂貨法則，以得到表現相對較佳的訂貨政策。兩種訂貨政策包含critical fractile solution以及Scarf’s rule。本研究首先比較在需求分配資訊已知下的訂貨政策表現，其次比較了在需求分配資訊發生錯誤預期時的訂貨政策表現。在本研究中，我們採納了貝塔二項分配去捕捉需求，並設計了兩個模擬實驗分別比較上述兩種情境中的訂貨政策表現，以了解在錯誤預期發生前後三種訂貨政策將如何被影響。本研究的目標在於找出在完整資訊下及錯誤預期下的最適訂貨政策，以幫助焦點公司改善其營運績效。 Motivated by the ordering decision problem at the largest high-tech electronic distribution company in the world, this research aims to find a better ordering policy for company managers. To ensure that the new ordering policies can lower the loss incurred by ordering decisions, we compare two well-known theoretical ordering policies, critical fractile and Scarf’s rule, to the simple rule used by managers in order to assess the performance of the three ordering policies. We also consider the performance of these three ordering policies when managers misjudge the risk of demand distribution. We use a beta-binomial distribution to capture the perceived demand and design a simulation experiment to observe how wrong beliefs affect the performance of different policies. We aim to identify ordering policies that are robust to wrong beliefs and can help the focal company to improve its operational performance, which has been compromised by excess inventory and demand uncertainty.
參考文獻:	[1]. Alfares, H. K., & Elmorra, H. H. (2005). The distribution-free newsboy problem: Extensions to the shortage penalty case. International Journal of Production Economics, 93, 465-477. [2]. Barnes, E., Dai, J., Deng, S., Down, D., Goh, M., Lau, H. C., & Sharafali, M. (2000). Electronics manufacturing service industry. The Logistics Institute–Asia Pacific, Georgia Tech and The National University of Singapore, Singapore. [3]. Bertsimas, D., & Thiele, A. (2005). A data-driven approach to newsvendor problems. Technical report, Massechusetts Institute of Technology, Cambridge, MA. [4]. Burnetas, A., & Gilbert, S. (2001). Future capacity procurements under unknown demand and increasing costs. Management Science, 47(7), 979-992. [5]. Chen, Y., Xu, M., & Zhang, Z. G. (2009). Technical note-a risk-averse newsvendor model under the cvar criterion. Operations Research, 57(4), 1040-1044. [6]. Gallego, G., & Moon, I. (1993). The distribution free newsboy problem: review and extensions. Journal of the Operational Research Society, 825-834. [7]. Lee, H., & Whang, S. (2002). The impact of the secondary market on the supply chain. Management Science, 48(6), 719-731. [8]. O`Neil, S., Zhao, X., Sun, D., & Wei, J. C. (2015). Newsvendor Problems with Demand Shocks and Unknown Demand Distributions. Decision Sciences. [9]. Porteus, E. L. (2002). Foundations of stochastic inventory theory. Stanford University Press. [10]. Scarf, H., Arrow, K. J., & Karlin, S. (1958). A min-max solution of an inventory problem. Studies in the mathematical theory of inventory and production, 10, 201-209. [11]. Sethi, S. P., Yan, H., & Zhang, H. (2004). Quantity Flexibility Contracts: Optimal Decisions with Information Updates*. Decision Sciences, 35(4), 691-712. [12]. Demand and prices, flexibility factor, p.696 [13]. Shah, J., & Avittathur, B. (2007). The retailer multi-item inventory problem with demand cannibalization and substitution. International Journal of Production Economics, 106(1), 104-114. [14]. Silver, E., Pyke, D. F., & Peterson, R. (1998). Inventory management and production planning and scheduling. [15]. Vairaktarakis, G. L. (2000). Robust multi-item newsboy models with a budget constraint. International Journal of Production Economics, 66(3), 213-226.
描述:	碩士國立政治大學資訊管理學系 103356004
資料來源:	http://thesis.lib.nccu.edu.tw/record/#G0103356004
数据类型:	thesis
显示于类别:	[資訊管理學系] 學位論文

文件中的档案:

档案	大小	格式	浏览次数
600401.pdf	2187Kb	Adobe PDF2	34	检视/开启

在政大典藏中所有的数据项都受到原著作权保护.

社群 sharing

著作權政策宣告 Copyright Announcement

1.本網站之數位內容為國立政治大學所收錄之機構典藏，無償提供學術研究與公眾教育等公益性使用，惟仍請適度，合理使用本網站之內容，以尊重著作權人之權益。商業上之利用，則請先取得著作權人之授權。
The digital content of this website is part of National Chengchi University Institutional Repository. It provides free access to academic research and public education for non-commercial use. Please utilize it in a proper and reasonable manner and respect the rights of copyright owners. For commercial use, please obtain authorization from the copyright owner in advance.

2.本網站之製作，已盡力防止侵害著作權人之權益，如仍發現本網站之數位內容有侵害著作權人權益情事者，請權利人通知本網站維護人員(nccur@nccu.edu.tw)，維護人員將立即採取移除該數位著作等補救措施。
NCCU Institutional Repository is made to protect the interests of copyright owners. If you believe that any material on the website infringes copyright, please contact our staff(nccur@nccu.edu.tw). We will remove the work from the repository and investigate your claim.

DSpace Software Copyright © 2002-2004 MIT & Hewlett-Packard / Enhanced by NTU Library IR team Copyright © - 回馈