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    Title: 供應鏈中原物料補貨模式對生產影響之風險研究-以台灣供水措施為例
    The supply Chain risk study of production effected by raw material replenishment models ─ a case of water supply in Taiwan
    Authors: 林杰熙
    Contributors: 羅明琇
    林杰熙
    Keywords: 供應鏈風險管理
    供應風險
    補貨數量
    補貨頻率
    產量
    淨利
    Supply chain risk management
    Supply risk
    The number of replenishment
    Replenishment frequency
    Yield
    Net profit
    Date: 2017
    Issue Date: 2017-07-24 11:56:03 (UTC+8)
    Abstract: 現今企業受到全球化之影響，在經營過程中會遭遇多種挑戰，供應鏈風險就是其中之一；對位處供應鏈下游之廠商而言，上游原物料之供應狀況會影響產品之生產，當可供應之原物料有不足之狀況發生時，供應商極有可能變動補貨之模式，使得原物料之供應風險升高，本研究即是探索、了解此種供應風險對廠商生產影響之風險，以提供生產廠商作為相關考量時參考之用。
    本研究首先探討供應鏈風險管理之流程，把研究方向界定在識別原物料供應商變更補貨模式之供應風險，並採用TOC-SCRS架構，將TOC-SCRS由一般以終端消費需求為限制考量，逐步上推其補貨方式(包括補貨時間、頻率及數量等)(即固定限制終端需求，推求上游各供應鏈成員之利害關係)，轉換為限制不再是下游終端需求，而是補貨方式(頻率、數量與時間)，藉此了解當限制不再是下游，而是由上游決定時，對下游有何影響(即如果限制補貨方式對下游供應鏈會有什麼影響)。
    由於水是工業生產之重要原物料(或為所生產產品之組成原料，或為在工業製程上之媒介與運用物料)，在台灣水之供應，主要是由自來水事業擔負供水者之角色，同一地區只有一自來水事業供應自來水(單一供應商)，且在乾旱時，自來水事業有一些因應之供水策略與準則(補貨模式)，再加上在全球氣候變遷之影響下，極端氣候頻率變多，乾旱之發生機率增加，使得運用供水策略之機會增加，因此選擇以台灣供水措施做為案例研究；再以台灣應對乾旱時之所採行之兩種供水措施-「連續供應、每日減量」及「分區輪流供水」，分別對應兩種不同之補貨模式-「降低補貨數量」及「變更補貨頻率」，設計問卷詢問生產廠商，研析廠商面對之生產風險，來定性識別當供應鏈上游原物料供應商變動補貨模式時，對廠商生產影響之供應風險；本研究發現：
    一、供應商降低補貨數量在一定比率下，對產量影響之比率與降低之補貨數量比率具有一定之相關性；但是所降低補貨數量超過一定比率時，其對產量影響之比率將超過降低之補貨數量比率，使得生產風險大為增加；對於水這類型非關鍵性原物料，供應商降低補貨數量時，對產業之影響來說，對產量之影響大於對淨利之影響，也就是所造成成本增加之狀況，弱於對產量減少之效果。
    二、供應商變更供貨頻率，若停止供貨之天數相對供貨天數為過長時，廠商生產之產量將大幅降低，對生產造成極大風險；對於水這類型非關鍵性原物料，供應商變更補貨頻率時，對產業之影響來說，無論對產量或對淨利之影響，趨勢一致。
    三、供應商降低補貨數量相對於變更補貨頻率，對產量減少之風險性更高；對淨利減少之風險性也較高。
    四、在供應商變更補貨頻率之狀況下，相對於降低補貨數量，廠商原物料之庫存比較能緩衝風險性。
    五、由於各項供應風險的提高，原物料供應商可能調整補貨模式，繼而對廠商生產影響也產生風險性；，本研究即可提供企業了解對應「降低補貨數量」及「變更補貨頻率」兩種不同原物料補貨模式所造成之風險性與可能之損害，以規劃研擬趨避策略，提早因應。
    六、本研究之案例因所回收可用分析之廠商家數僅55家(約占發送對象1成)，因此僅就整體不分產業別予以分析；惟不同產業對水之依賴度也就有所不同，因此對於乾旱供水策略之敏感度可能也有所不同；而不同之建廠年代，因製程技術有所不同，對水之需求也就不同；因此未來如再進一步研究，建議針對單一產業或同一建廠年代進行調查，將可提供企業細部評估資料。
    Supply chain risk is one of the challenges faced by nowadays companies that are facing the globalization trend. The upstream supply of raw materials will affect the production of products for the downstream supply chain manufacturers. The supplier is likely to change the mode of replenishment when the supply availability of raw materials is inadequate. The supply risk of raw materials thus increases. This study aims to explore the risk of manufacturers` impact of production when happening the supply risks.
    This study first discusses the process of supply chain risk management, and identify the supply risk of the replenishment model of raw material suppliers. The TOC-SCRS model was utilized as the framework to understand what impact on the downstream when the limit is decided by the upstream. (That is, if the restricted replenishment will have any impact on the downstream supply chain).
    The water supply system in Taiwan was selected as the study case. First, water is an important raw material for industrial production. Secondly, the main water supplier in Taiwan is the water service business. Only one water supply business supplies tap water in the same area (single supplier), and the water supply business has some water supply strategies and criteria in the case of drought (Replenishment model). Finally, the opportunities is increased to use of the water supply strategies for drought since the frequency of extreme climates and the probability of occurrence of drought increases under the influence of global climate change.
    In this study, two types of water supply for drought in Taiwan- "continuous supply, daily reduction" and "partitioned water supply" were selected, which corresponded to two different replenishment modes - "Reduce the quantity of replenishment" and "Change the replenishment frequency". Then design the questionnaire to ask the manufacturer to analyze the production risk faced, and qualitatively identify the supply risk of the impact on the manufacturer`s production when the supply chain upstream raw material suppliers change the replenishment mode. This study found:
    1.There is a certain correlation between the ratio of the yield impact and the reduced quantity ratio of the replenishment when the supplier reduces the quantity of the replenishment at a certain rate. But the reduction in the number of replenishment exceeds a certain ratio, the ratio of the impact on the yield will exceed the rate of replenishment, which will result in a significant increase in production risk. For water which this type of non-critical raw materials, suppliers reduce the amount of replenishment, the impact of production is greater than the impact of net profit; that is, the resulting increase in the cost of the situation is weaker than the effect of reduced production.
    2.In a situation of changing supplier delivery frequency, if the number of days to stop delivery relative to the supply of the number of days is too long, the yields of the manufacturer will be significantly reduced, and a greater risk of the production. For water which this type of non-critical raw materials, the effect of the yield is consistent with the impact of net profit when the supplier changes the replenishment frequency.
    3.Compared to changing the replenishment frequency, the risk of reduced yield is higher and the risk of reducing net profit is higher since the supplier reduces the amount of replenishment.
    4.Relative to the reduction in the number of replenishment, inventory of raw materials can be compared to buffer the risk in the supplier to change the replenishment frequency.
    5.Because the supply risk increased, the raw material suppliers may adjust the replenishment model, and then the impact on the production of manufacturers also cause risk; this study can provide enterprises to understand the different raw material replenishment model -"reduce the number of replenishment" and "change the replenishment frequency" - caused risk and damage, and then enterprises planed and develop strategy to avoid early response.
    6.In this study case, There are only 55 enterprises recycled to analysis (about 10 percent of the respondents), but the dependence of different industries on water was different, the sensitivity for the drought water supply strategy may be relatively high; and because the process technology is different by different construction time, the demand for water is different; so such as further research, it is recommended for a single industry or the same construction time to provide the details of the enterprise`s assessment.
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    Description: 碩士
    國立政治大學
    企業管理學系
    100355064
    Source URI: http://thesis.lib.nccu.edu.tw/record/#G1003550641
    Data Type: thesis
    Appears in Collections:[Department of Business Administation] Theses

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