政大機構典藏-National Chengchi University Institutional Repository(NCCUR):Item 140.119/110972
English  |  正體中文  |  简体中文  |  Post-Print筆數 : 27 |  全文笔数/总笔数 : 113392/144379 (79%)
造访人次 : 51210083      在线人数 : 945
RC Version 6.0 © Powered By DSPACE, MIT. Enhanced by NTU Library IR team.
搜寻范围 查询小技巧：
  • 您可在西文检索词汇前后加上"双引号"，以获取较精准的检索结果
  • 若欲以作者姓名搜寻，建议至进阶搜寻限定作者字段，可获得较完整数据
    •  进阶搜寻


    请使用永久网址来引用或连结此文件: https://nccur.lib.nccu.edu.tw/handle/140.119/110972


    题名: 夏季缺電之最適限電策略：農業-食品生產鏈亦須共體時艱？
    其它题名: Optimal Electricity Rationing Strategy during Summer Season: Shall Agri-Food Supply Chain Sectors Ally to Tough It Out?
    作者: 李慧琳;洪敏睿
    Lee, Huey-Lin;Hung, Min-Jui
    贡献者: 經濟系
    关键词: 限電;線性規劃產業關聯分析模型;產品內含電力使用量;農業－食品生產鏈
    Electricity Rationing;Linear Programming Input-output Analysis Model;Embodied Electricity Consumption;Agri-food Supply Chain
    日期: 2015-06
    上传时间: 2017-07-12 11:59:15 (UTC+8)
    摘要: 台灣夏季高溫酷熱使得各產業夏月用電量較全年月平均高出5%~24%。台電公司發電機組的備轉容量率在過去幾年的夏季也多次逼近限電警戒值（6%）。在未來氣候變遷趨勢下，夏季極端高溫發生機率提高，發電容量因受環保及社會因素影響難以同步擴充，限電極可能成為台灣在夏季必須面對的挑戰。本文旨在建構一描繪台灣經濟體內所有生產及消費部門相互依賴連結的線性規劃產業關聯分析（linear programming input-output analysis，以下簡稱LPIO）模型，用以求解經濟成長過程中若遇夏季供電瓶頸時之可行產業最適用電配置（限電）策略─限制用電之產業組合及配比。本研究首創以夏季產業關聯表（Input-Output Table，以下簡稱IOT）來校準LPIO模型，切合實際地反映產業的季節性投入需求，以提升總體多部門模型之應用分析在政策制定參考上的實用性。以夏季IOT資料校準LPIO模型所求算出的產業最適限電策略需要相對較多產業加強配合節電。農業－食品生產鏈上各產業的用電密集度雖較第二及第三級產業為低，然而，因其產品之單位內含用電量所能創造的總體附加價值較低，以故，當供電不及經濟成長之需求而須進行限電最適配置時，漁產、畜產、加工食品、飲料、住宿及餐飲等產品之最終消費亦須共體時艱，配合最適限電配置原則而犧牲成長，進而帶動其相關上下游產業減產以減少用電。農產部門亦會受到產業間相互的投入產出關聯影響而減產。農業－食品生產鏈之上下游產業若能進一步提升用電效率，降低其產品內含電力使用量，限電優先順位可望後移，在缺電瓶頸時期得以倖免於限電危機。
    In Taiwan, industrial electricity consumption in summer time outweighs the seasonal average by around 5%~24%. Over the past few years, percent operating reserve in hot summer days several times approached the critical threshold of 6% for power rationing. Owing to climate change, extreme high temperatures are projected very likely to occur frequently during summer time in Taiwan. Yet, expansion in the installed capacity of power generation is fiercely stalled domestically due to environmental and political concerns. It is foreseeable that rationing will be necessary in order to tackle the problem of excess demand for electricity in the summer time. We built a linear programming input-output analysis (LPIO) model to investigate the optimal strategy for electricity rationing across sectors under the circumstances of excess demand for electricity in the summer time due to high temperatures. Our LPIO model finds the optimal sectoral allocation of the scant electricity supply according to the value-added per unit of power embodied in the commodity consumption (VAEE). The novelty of this research is that our LPIO model is calibrated to a summer-based inputoutput table (IOT) of Taiwan, so as to reflect the seasonal heterogeneity in sectoral power requirement. As compared with a conventionally annual- IOT calibrated LPIO, the results from our summer-LPIO model indicate that it would require more sectors (both producing and consuming sectors) to cut their power demand so as to protect the power system from outage while securing economic growth. Given the current attainable VAEE, sectors of the agri-food supply chain (AFSC), which tend to consume less electricity per unit of output as compared with industrial and services sectors, will also need to cut production so as to make way for the economy to attain as high as possible GDP growth in the hard times of electricity insufficiency. Improvement in the efficiency of electricity use will be helpful for the AFSC sectors to be secured against electricity rationing.
    關聯: 農業經濟叢刊, 20(2), 53-87
    数据类型: article
    DOI 連結: http://dx.doi.org/10.6196/TAER.2015.20.2.2
    DOI: 10.6196/TAER.2015.20.2.2
    显示于类别:[經濟學系] 期刊論文

    文件中的档案:

    档案 描述 大小格式浏览次数
    53-87.pdf2237KbAdobe PDF2257检视/开启


    在政大典藏中所有的数据项都受到原著作权保护.


    社群 sharing

    著作權政策宣告 Copyright Announcement
    1.本網站之數位內容為國立政治大學所收錄之機構典藏，無償提供學術研究與公眾教育等公益性使用，惟仍請適度，合理使用本網站之內容，以尊重著作權人之權益。商業上之利用，則請先取得著作權人之授權。
    The digital content of this website is part of National Chengchi University Institutional Repository. It provides free access to academic research and public education for non-commercial use. Please utilize it in a proper and reasonable manner and respect the rights of copyright owners. For commercial use, please obtain authorization from the copyright owner in advance.

    2.本網站之製作，已盡力防止侵害著作權人之權益，如仍發現本網站之數位內容有侵害著作權人權益情事者，請權利人通知本網站維護人員(nccur@nccu.edu.tw)，維護人員將立即採取移除該數位著作等補救措施。
    NCCU Institutional Repository is made to protect the interests of copyright owners. If you believe that any material on the website infringes copyright, please contact our staff(nccur@nccu.edu.tw). We will remove the work from the repository and investigate your claim.
    DSpace Software Copyright © 2002-2004  MIT &  Hewlett-Packard  /   Enhanced by   NTU Library IR team Copyright ©   - 回馈