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| Title: | 考量商品貿易之匯率報酬評價
Determinant of exchange rate return-considering commodity trade |
| Authors: | 王可佳
Wang, Ke Jia |
| Contributors: | 林建秀
Lin, Chien Hsiu
王可佳
Wang, Ke Jia |
| Keywords: | 匯率報酬
利差交易
商品貿易
Exchange rate return
Carry trade
Commodity trade |
| Date: | 2017 |
| Issue Date: | 2017-07-11 11:30:28 (UTC+8) |
| Abstract: | 本研究欲探討國家商品貿易特性在匯率報酬評價中扮演的角色，決定匯率報酬的因素非常多，包含利率、市場波動、國際貿易及國家政治等非常廣泛的因素，而國家商品貿易特性也會是影響匯率報酬評價的可能因素之一。本研究以「進口比率」(Import Ratios) 衡量國家的商品貿易特性，也以該數值建構投資組合。研究結果發現，去除商品貿易特性特殊之國家後，進口比例(Import Ratio)越高之投資組合，其遠期外匯貼水也偏高，且外匯超額報酬也隨之遞增。
在Ready, Roussanov, and Ward(2013)論文中認為，國家的商品貿易特性是造成不同國家利率高低差異的原因，所以該作者認為國家商品貿易特性極有可能是利差交易背後的原因。然而，本研究的Fama-Macbeth 兩步驟橫斷面迴歸實證結果發現，國家的商品貿易特性確實是造成國家利率差異的因素之一，但利差交易背後的風險背後的因素，雖然包含國家商品貿易因素，但仍包含其他因素，且商品貿易因子(IMX)無法取代利差交易因子(HML)在外匯超額報酬評價模型中的角色。
此外，本研究亦嘗試在Lustig所提出之市場因子(RX)和利差交易因子(HML)的兩因子模型中，再額外加入商品貿易因子(IMX)，構成匯率評價的三因子模型，但研究結果發現不論是在遠期外匯貼水投資組合或商品貿易投資組合中，三因子模型都沒有優於兩因子模型。
There are many factors in determinant of exchange rate returns, such as interest rates, market volatility, international trade and politics. The purpose of this research is considering commodity trade in the pricing model of excess return of currency market. This research use “Import Ratios” to measure the characteristic of different countries’ commodity trade. We use import ratios to construct “Import Ratio Sort Portfolio”. After removing the countries which commodity trade characteristics are special, we could see when import ratios is higher, the forward discount and exchange rate return are also higher in import ratio sort portfolio.
Ready, Roussanov, and Ward(2013) thought the commodity trade is the reason that cause interest rate differences between countries. In this research, the result of Fama-Macbeth two-step regression show that commodity trade is one of the reasons that cause interest rate differences. It means that there are other risks behind carry trade. In the pricing model of excess return of currency market, HML factor can’t be replaced by IMX factor.
We also try to construct three-factor model, which consider excess return, carry trade, and commodity trade simultaneously. But the result shows that three-factor model can not have better explanatory power than Lustig, Roussanov, and Verdelhan(2011)’s two-factor model. |
| Reference: | Anzuini, A., & Fornari, F. (2012). Macroeconomic determinants of carry trade activity. Review of International Economics, 20(3), 468-488.
Asness, C. S., Moskowitz, T. J., & Pedersen, L. H. (2013). Value and momentum everywhere. The Journal of Finance, 68(3), 929-985.
Burnside, C., Eichenbaum, M., & Rebelo, S. (2011). Carry trade and momentum in currency markets. Annu. Rev. Financ. Econ., 3(1), 511-535.
Burnside, C., Eichenbaum, M., Kleshchelski, I., & Rebelo, S. (2006). The returns to currency speculation (No. w12489). National Bureau of Economic Research.
Fama, E. F., & MacBeth, J. D. (1973). Risk, return, and equilibrium: Empirical tests. Journal of political economy, 81(3), 607-636.
Ferraro, D., Rogoff, K. S., & Rossi, B. (2012). Can oil prices forecast exchange rates? (No. w17998). National Bureau of Economic Research.
Heath, A., Galati, G., & McGuire, P. (2007). Evidence of carry trade activity.
Lustig, H., & Verdelhan, A. (2007). The cross section of foreign currency risk premia and consumption growth risk. The American economic review, 97(1), 89-117.
Lustig, H., Roussanov, N., & Verdelhan, A. (2011). Common risk factors in currency markets. Review of Financial Studies, 24(11), 3731-3777..
Menkhoff, L., Sarno, L., Schmeling, M., & Schrimpf, A. (2012). Currency momentum strategies. Journal of Financial Economics, 106(3), 660-684.
Ready, R., Roussanov, N., & Ward, C. (2013). Commodity trade and the carry trade: A tale of two countries (No. w19371). National Bureau of Economic Research. |
| Description: | 碩士
國立政治大學
金融學系
104352014 |
| Source URI: | http://thesis.lib.nccu.edu.tw/record/#G0104352014 |
| Data Type: | thesis |
| Appears in Collections: | [金融學系] 學位論文
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