政大機構典藏-National Chengchi University Institutional Repository(NCCUR):Item 140.119/110723
English  |  正體中文  |  简体中文  |  Post-Print筆數 : 27 |  全文筆數/總筆數 : 113478/144464 (79%)
造訪人次 : 51490772      線上人數 : 754
RC Version 6.0 © Powered By DSPACE, MIT. Enhanced by NTU Library IR team.
搜尋範圍 查詢小技巧：
  • 您可在西文檢索詞彙前後加上"雙引號"，以獲取較精準的檢索結果
  • 若欲以作者姓名搜尋，建議至進階搜尋限定作者欄位，可獲得較完整資料
    •  進階搜尋


    請使用永久網址來引用或連結此文件: https://nccur.lib.nccu.edu.tw/handle/140.119/110723


    題名: 臺灣香菸消費的決定因素 : 分量迴歸法
    The determinants of cigarettes consumption in Taiwan : a quantile regression approach
    作者: 趙培源
    Chao, Pei Yuan
    貢獻者: 羅光達
    Lo, Kuang Ta
    趙培源
    Chao, Pei Yuan
    關鍵詞: 菸品消費
    分量迴歸
    家庭收支調查報告
    家戶特性
    價格彈性
    Tobacco consumption
    Quantile regression
    Report on the survey of family income & expenditure
    Household characteristics
    Price elasticity
    日期: 2016
    上傳時間: 2017-07-03 14:47:24 (UTC+8)
    摘要: 本文的研究目的為分析台灣菸品消費的特性。本文選擇採取分量迴歸法作為研究方法，探討在0.05、0.2、0.4、0.6、0.8和0.95的菸品消費分量下，吸菸家戶的菸品消費特性效果為何。資料來源為行政院家庭收支調查報告。

    研究結果指出，在0.2到0.8分量的菸品消費量下，菸品的價格彈性為-0.161到-0.231之間。然而，在0.05分量的菸品消費量下，菸品的價格彈性為-0.363，而當位於0.95分量的菸品消費量時，菸品的消費彈性大幅的提升至-0.701。這代表著提高菸品稅或是菸品健康福利捐的政策是可以有效減少吸菸行為的。

    更近一步探討，在0.95分量的菸品消費下，菸品的消費彈性大幅的提升至-0.701，對於此現象可能的解釋為，對於較高菸品消費量的家戶大部分為吸菸成癮者，當價格上漲時，消費者會選擇改變吸菸習慣例如戒菸或購買較便宜的香菸。

    而值得一提的是，對於吸菸成癮的消費者而言，也存在一定機率會選擇購買非法的走私香菸，而走私香菸不但無法增加我國菸品稅收收入，也無法達成抑制我國吸菸率的政策目標。因此，政府在推動菸品控管政策時，須將菸品消費者的消費特性列入考量，同時也必須加強查緝非法菸品走私的行為，才能更有效達成政策目標。
    The research purpose of the paper was to analyze the characteristics of cigarette consumptions in Taiwan. The paper had adopted quantile regression as research method to discuss the effect of smoking households’ consumption characteristics to the cigarette consumptions in Taiwan at 0.05, 0.2, 0.4, 0.6, 0.8, and 0.95 quantile. Data for the research was sourced from the “Report on the Survey of Family Income & Expenditure”, conducted by the Executive Yuan, R.O.C.

    The results showed up that the price elasticities of cigarettes were estimated about -0.161 to -0.231 from 0.2 to 0.8 quantile of cigarettes consumption. However, the price elasticity of cigarettes was -0.363 in 0.05 quantile and raised significantly to -0.701 in 0.95 quantile. Indicating the policy of implementing cigarette tax or “Health and Welfare Surcharge on Tobacco Products” would decrease the smoking behavior effectively.

    Furthermore, the price elasticity changed to -0.701 in 0.95 quantile, a possible explanation for this phenomenon was that households with higher cigarette consumption were highly addicted to smoking, when the cigarette price increased, they would try to change smoking habit such as buying cheaper cigarettes or quit smoking.

    However, it is worth noticed that there existed risks of price sensitive smokers seek out measures to purchase less expensive cigarettes when they were highly relied on cigarettes, such as smuggled cigarettes, which may decrease future cessation efforts, and also lose the tax revenue from cigarette excise tax. Therefore, government should also take the consumption characteristics of smoking households into account and also enhance the prevention of illegal consumption behaviors when implementing the tobacco control policy.
    參考文獻: Koenker and Bassett（1978）, “Regression Quantile,” Econometrica, 46（1）,33-50.
    Lin et al.（2007）, “Tobacco Smoke, Indoor Air Pollution and Tuberculosis: A Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis”, PLoS Medicine, 4, 1, e20, 173-189.
    Gandini et al.（2008）, “Tobacco Smoking and Cancer: A Meta-Analysis”, Int.J.Cancer, 122, 155-164.
    Sun et al.（2004）, “Smoking and Cancer Risk in Korean Men and Women”. Cancer Causes and Control, 15, 341-348.
    TR’EDANIEL et al.（1997）, “Tobacco Smoking and Gastric Cancer: Review and Meta-Analysis”, Int.J.Cancer, 72, 565-573.
    Merriman et al.（2000）, “How Big is the Worldwide Cigarette-Smuggling Problem?” Tobacco Control in Developing Countries, 365-392.
    International Tax and Investment Center and Oxford Economics (2014), Asia-14: Illicit Tobacco Indicator 2013.
    John（2008）, “Price Elasticity Estimates for Tobacco Products in India”, Health Policy and Planning, 23: 200-209.
    Kostova et al.（2010）, “Price and Cigarette Demand: Evidence from Youth Tobacco Use in Developing Countries”, NBER Working Paper, No.15781.
    Townsend et al.（1994）, “Cigarette Smoking by Socioeconomic Group, Sex, and Age: Effects of Price, Income, and Health Publicity.” BMJ Clinical Research, 309, 923-927.
    Lee et al.（2003）, “Area Deprivation, Socioeconomic Status, and Smoking Behavior among male Adults in Taiwan”, Taiwan Journal of Public Health, 22（1）: 10-16.
    Jamal et al.（2013）, “Current Cigarette Smoking among Adults-United States, 2005-2013”, Morbidity and Mortality Weekly Report, 63, 47, 1108-1112.
    Birmpili et al.（2012）, “Gender and Socio-economic Differences in Daily Smoking and Smoking Cessation Among Adult Residents in a Greek Rural Area.”, Open Cardiovascular Medical Journal, 6:15-21.
    Hyland et al.（2005）, “Higher Cigarette Prices Influence Cigarette Purchase Patterns”, Tobacco Control, 14:86-92.
    描述: 碩士
    國立政治大學
    應用經濟與社會發展英語碩士學位學程(IMES)
    103266001
    資料來源: http://thesis.lib.nccu.edu.tw/record/#G0103266001
    資料類型: thesis
    顯示於類別:[應用經濟與社會發展英語碩士學位學程 (IMES)] 學位論文

    文件中的檔案:

    檔案 描述 大小格式瀏覽次數
    600101.pdf872KbAdobe PDF263檢視/開啟


    在政大典藏中所有的資料項目都受到原著作權保護.


    社群 sharing

    著作權政策宣告 Copyright Announcement
    1.本網站之數位內容為國立政治大學所收錄之機構典藏，無償提供學術研究與公眾教育等公益性使用，惟仍請適度，合理使用本網站之內容，以尊重著作權人之權益。商業上之利用，則請先取得著作權人之授權。
    The digital content of this website is part of National Chengchi University Institutional Repository. It provides free access to academic research and public education for non-commercial use. Please utilize it in a proper and reasonable manner and respect the rights of copyright owners. For commercial use, please obtain authorization from the copyright owner in advance.

    2.本網站之製作，已盡力防止侵害著作權人之權益，如仍發現本網站之數位內容有侵害著作權人權益情事者，請權利人通知本網站維護人員(nccur@nccu.edu.tw)，維護人員將立即採取移除該數位著作等補救措施。
    NCCU Institutional Repository is made to protect the interests of copyright owners. If you believe that any material on the website infringes copyright, please contact our staff(nccur@nccu.edu.tw). We will remove the work from the repository and investigate your claim.
    DSpace Software Copyright © 2002-2004  MIT &  Hewlett-Packard  /   Enhanced by   NTU Library IR team Copyright ©   - 回饋