政大機構典藏-National Chengchi University Institutional Repository(NCCUR):Item 140.119/110648

政大機構典藏-National Chengchi University Institutional Repository(NCCUR):Item 140.119/110648

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政大機構典藏 > 商學院 > 統計學系 > 學位論文 > Item 140.119/110648

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題名:	人口流動模型的距離效應之探討 A distance-based modification of spatial interaction model in modelling population movement
作者:	梁穎誼 Leong, Yin Yee
貢獻者:	余清祥梁穎誼 Leong, Yin Yee
關鍵詞:	空間互動模型人口流動轉折點模型中間障礙因素距離遞減函數 Spatial interaction model Population movement Change-point analysis Intervening obstacles Distance decay function
日期:	2017
上傳時間:	2017-07-03 14:34:43 (UTC+8)
摘要:	人口流動具有各種型態。其中包含了遷移、移動、以及通勤人口。在宏觀模型框架下，空間互動模型(簡稱SIM)對於測量人口流動扮演了重要的角色。距離遞減效應為空間互動模型中重要的因子。該效應描述了人口流動的頻率會隨著移動距離而逐漸下降。然而，從實證上，本研究發現人口流動與移動距離的函數，並非在距離上保有恆定的關係。在本文中，我們提出了對此非恆定的距離遞減效應之修正方法。本修正法運用了轉折點模型的特點，套入了空間互動模型的距離函數上。本文首先運用了電腦模擬驗證了此方法的穩定性與有效性。接下來，研究將此方法應用在兩個人口流動資料。第一個是從台灣健保資料庫觀察出的民眾就醫地變化。健保資料庫包含了總人口的5%抽樣資料。由於在抽樣上瑕疵不大，因此健保抽樣資料具有了一定的代表性。第二個資料則是英國統計局所提供的人口遷移普查資料。在這兩個資料上，我們發現本研究所提修正法，相較於傳統的空間互動模型具有更好的模型配適表現。此改善程度在非都市地區尤其更為明顯。 Population movement encompasses various forms, such as migration, mobility, and commuting. Spatial Interaction Model (SIM) serves as an important tool to calibrate these movements in the sense of macro modelling. One of the important features of this model is that the number of migrants often decays with the distance. However, we found that this is not always the case in practice and the decay pattern may change with distance. In this study, we propose a distanced-based modification to the SIM, via applying the techniques of change-point problem to construct distance functional form. Computer simulation is illustrated to validate the method and the empirical analysis of flow data from Taiwan’s National Health Insurance Research Database (NHIRD), and also England & Wales internal migration data also provides sound evidences to support the proposed approach. Note that the flow data from the NHIRD consists of a sample of about one million people and can be treated as a fine sample representative of Taiwan’s whole population (about 23 million people). Our results show that the modified approach is more adequate than the traditional SIM, especially for describing the movements of suburban areas in Taiwan.
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描述:	博士國立政治大學統計學系 100354501
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