Loading...
|
Please use this identifier to cite or link to this item:
https://nccur.lib.nccu.edu.tw/handle/140.119/110648
|
| Title: | 人口流動模型的距離效應之探討
A distance-based modification of spatial interaction model in modelling population movement |
| Authors: | 梁穎誼
Leong, Yin Yee |
| Contributors: | 余清祥
梁穎誼
Leong, Yin Yee |
| Keywords: | 空間互動模型
人口流動
轉折點模型
中間障礙因素
距離遞減函數
Spatial interaction model
Population movement
Change-point analysis
Intervening obstacles
Distance decay function |
| Date: | 2017 |
| Issue Date: | 2017-07-03 14:34:43 (UTC+8) |
| Abstract: | 人口流動具有各種型態。其中包含了遷移、移動、以及通勤人口。在宏觀模型框架下，空間互動模型(簡稱SIM)對於測量人口流動扮演了重要的角色。距離遞減效應為空間互動模型中重要的因子。該效應描述了人口流動的頻率會隨著移動距離而逐漸下降。然而，從實證上，本研究發現人口流動與移動距離的函數，並非在距離上保有恆定的關係。
在本文中，我們提出了對此非恆定的距離遞減效應之修正方法。本修正法運用了轉折點模型的特點，套入了空間互動模型的距離函數上。本文首先運用了電腦模擬驗證了此方法的穩定性與有效性。接下來，研究將此方法應用在兩個人口流動資料。第一個是從台灣健保資料庫觀察出的民眾就醫地變化。健保資料庫包含了總人口的5%抽樣資料。由於在抽樣上瑕疵不大，因此健保抽樣資料具有了一定的代表性。第二個資料則是英國統計局所提供的人口遷移普查資料。在這兩個資料上，我們發現本研究所提修正法，相較於傳統的空間互動模型具有更好的模型配適表現。此改善程度在非都市地區尤其更為明顯。
Population movement encompasses various forms, such as migration, mobility, and commuting. Spatial Interaction Model (SIM) serves as an important tool to calibrate these movements in the sense of macro modelling. One of the important features of this model is that the number of migrants often decays with the distance. However, we found that this is not always the case in practice and the decay pattern may change with distance.
In this study, we propose a distanced-based modification to the SIM, via applying the techniques of change-point problem to construct distance functional form. Computer simulation is illustrated to validate the method and the empirical analysis of flow data from Taiwan’s National Health Insurance Research Database (NHIRD), and also England & Wales internal migration data also provides sound evidences to support the proposed approach. Note that the flow data from the NHIRD consists of a sample of about one million people and can be treated as a fine sample representative of Taiwan’s whole population (about 23 million people). Our results show that the modified approach is more adequate than the traditional SIM, especially for describing the movements of suburban areas in Taiwan. |
| Reference: | [1] Abel, G.J. (2010). Estimation of international migration flow tables in Europe. Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series A, 173(4): 797–825.
[2] Abel, G.J. (2013). Estimating global migration flow tables using place of birth data. Demographic Research, 28(18): 505-546.
[3] Abel, G.J. (2013). Estimating global migration flow tables using place of birth data. Demographic Research, 28: 505-546.
[4] Alecke, B., Huber, P., and Untiedt, G. (2001). What difference a constant makes? How predictable are international migration flows? Migration policies and EU enlargement. The case of central and eastern Europe: 63–78.
[5] Bai, J. (1997). Estimation of a Change Point in Multiple Regression Models. The Review of Economics and Statistics, LXXIX(4)
[6] Bauer, T and Klaus F.Z. (1999). Assessment of possible migration pressure and its labor market impact following EU enlargement to Central and Eastern Europe. A study for the Department of Education and Employment, UK. IZA Research Report No.3, July.
[7] Bell, M., Charles-Edwards, E., Ueffing, P., Stillwell, J., Kupiszewski, M., and Kupiszewska, D. (2015). Internal migration and development: comparing migration intensities around the world. Population and Development Review, 41(1): 33-58.
[8] Bijak, J. (2010). Forecasting International Migration in Europe: A Bayesian View. The Springer Series on Demographic Methods and Population Analysis Series. Berlin: Springer.
[9] Black, R., Bennett S.R., Thomas S.M., and Beddington J.R. (2011). Climate change: Migration as adaptation. Nature, 478(7370):447–449
[10] Center for Migration Studies. (1996). Population Mobility: A Theoretical Exploration. Center for Migration Studies special issues, 13(3); 9-17.
[11] Chakraborty, M.A., Beamonte. A., Gelfand. A.E., Alonso M.P., Gargallo, P., and Salvador, M. (2013) . Spatial interaction models with individual-level data for explaining labor flows and developing local labor markets. Computational and Statistics & Data Analysis 58: 292–307.
[12] Claydon, K. (2012). A Global Model of Human Migration, CASA Working Paper 186, UCL, Centre for Advanced Spatial Analysis, London.
Retreive from https://www.bartlett.ucl.ac.uk/casa/pdf/paper186
[13] de Vries, J.J., Nijkamp, P. and Rietveld, P. (2009). Exponential or power distance-decay for commuting? An alternative specification. Environment and Planning A, 41, 461–480
[14] Dennett, A., and Wilson, A. (2013). A multi-level spatial interaction modelling framework for estimating interregional migration in Europe. Environment and Planning A, 45: 1491–1507.
[15] Dickinson, R.E. (1934). Markets and Market Areas in East Anglia. Economic Geography, 10: 172-82.
[16] Drobne, S., and Lakner, M. (2014). Which Distance-decay function for migration and which one for commuting? A case study of Slovenia. Croatian Operational Research Review, (5):2
[17] Evans, A.W., (1970). Some properties of trip distribution methods, Transportation Research, 4: 19-36.
[18] Fik, T. and Mulligan, G. (1990). Spatial flows and competing central places: towards a general theory of hierarchical interaction. Environ Planning A, 22, 527–559.
[19] Fischer, M.M., and Jinfeng, W. (2011). Spatial Data Analysis. Models, Methods and Techniques. Heidelberg, Dordrecht, London, New York: Springer.
[20] Flowerdew, R., and Aitkin, M. (1982). A method of fitting the gravity model based on the Poisson distribution. J Reg Sci, 22: 191–202.
[21] Fotheringham, A.S. (1983). Some Theoretical Aspects of Destination Choice and Their Relevance to Production-Constrained Gravity Models. Environment and Planning, Vol. 15A, pp. 464-488
[22] Fotheringham, A.S. (1984). Spatial flows and spatial patterns. Environment and Planning A, 16, 529–543.
[23] Fotheringham, A.S., and O’Kelly, M.E. (1988). Spatial Interaction Models: Formulations and Applications. Dordrecht: Springer.
[24] Garrison, W.L. (1956). Estimates of the Parameters of Spatial Interaction, Papers and Proceedings, Regional Science Association, 2: 280-8.
[25] Halás, M., Klapka, P. and Kladivo, P. (2014). Distance-decay functions for daily travel-to-work flows. Journal of Transport Geography, 35: 107–119.
[26] Harris, J. and Todaro, M.P. (1970). Migration, unemployment and development: A two-sector analysis. American Economic Review, 60: 126-142.
[27] Hicks, J.R. (1932). The Theory of Wages. London: Macmillan.
[28] Hipp, J.R., and Boessen, A. (2017). The shape of mobility: Measuring the distance decay function of household mobility. The Professional Geographer, 69 (1): 32–44.
[29] Hristokski, I., and Sotiroski, K. (2012). Conceptual data modelling of modern human migration. Management Information Systems, 7(4): 3-12
[30] International Organization for Migration. Key Migration Terms. Retrieved from
https://www.iom.int/key-migration-terms
[31] Julious, S.A., (2001). Inference and estimation in a changepoint regression problem. Statistician, 50:51–61.
[32] Kahle, D., Wickham, H. (2014). Package ggmap.
[33] Kim, Minjeong. (2010). Gender and International Marriage Migration. Sociology Compass, 4(9): 718-731.
[34] Kurekova, L. (2011). Theories of migration: Conceptual review and empirical testing in the context of the EU East-West flows. Paper prepared for Interdisciplinary conference on Migration. Economic Change, Social Challenge. April 6-9, University College, London, Central European University,
Retrieved from:
http://cream.conferenceservices.net/resources/952/2371/pdf/MECSC2011_0139_paper.pdf [Accessed on 2017/05/01]
[35] Kok, P. (1999). The definition of migration and its application: making sense of recent South African census and survey data. South Africa Journal of Demography, 7(1): 19–30.
[36] Lee, E.S. (1966). A theory of migration. Demography, 3(1): 47–57.
[37] LeSage, J.P., and Pace, R.K. (2008). Spatial econometric modeling of origin-destination flows. Journal of Regional Science, 48(5):941–967
[38] LeSage J.P., and Fischer, M.M. (2010). Spatial econometric modeling of origin-destination flows. Handbook of applied spatial analysis: software tools, methods and applications. Springer, Berlin, 409–433
[39] Lewis, W.A. (1954). Economic development with unlimited supplies of labor. The Manchester School of Economic and Social Studies, 22: 139-191.
[40] LeSage, J., and Llano-Verduras, C. (2014). Forecasting spatially dependent origin and destination commodity flows. Empirical Economics, 47(4) :1543–1562.
[41] Min-Hau, Lin., Ann-Chi, Y., and Tzai-Hung W. (2011). Using regional differences and demographic characteristics to evaluate the principles of estimation of the residence of the population in National Health Insurance Research Databases (NHIRD). Taiwan Journal of Public Health, 30(4)
[42] Molloy, R., Smith, C.L., and Wozniak, A.K. (2011). Internal Migration in the United States. Journal of Economic Perspectives, 25(3):173–196.
[43] National Geographic Society. (2005). Human migration guide.
Retreive from: http://www.nationalgeographic.com/xpeditions/lessons/09/g68/migrationguidestudent.pdf
[44] Perruchoud, R. (2004). International Migrants Law: Glossary on Migration. Retrieved from International Organization for Migration (IOM): http://publications.iom.int/bookstore/free/IML_1_EN.pdf
[45] Peters, G.L., and Larkin, R.P. (2010). Population Geography (9th ed.). Kendall Hunt Publishing
[46] Population Reference Bureau. Glossary of Demographic Terms.
Retreive from http://www.prb.org/Publications/Lesson-Plans/Glossary.aspx
Available at http://cran.r-project.org/web/packages/ggmap/ggmap.pdf
[47] Massey, Douglass S., Arango, J., Hugo, G., Kouaci, A., Pellegrino, A., and Taylor, J.E. (1993). Theories of international migration: a review and appraisal. Population and Development Review, 19 (3): 431-466.
[48] Masucci, A.P., Serras, J., Johansson, A., and Batty, M. (2013). Gravity versus radiation models: On the importance of scale and heterogeneity in commuting flows. Physical Review E, 88: 022812.
[49] Nunes, L., Kuan, C.M., and Newbold, P. (1995). Spurious Break. Econometrics Theory 11, 736-749
[50] Olsson, G. (1965). Distance and Human Interaction. A Review and Bibliography. Regional Science Research Institute, Bibliography Series, No. 2.
[51] Paparoditis, E., and Politis, D. (2005). Bootstrap hypothesis testing in regression models. Statistics & Probability Letter, 74: 356–365.
[52] Pellegrini, P. and Fotheringham, A. (2002). Modelling spatial choice: a review and synthesis in a migration context. Progr. Hum. Geogr., 26, 487–510.
[53] Perry, P. J. (1969). Working Class Isolation and Mobility in Rural Dorset 1837-1936: a Study of Marriage Distances, Transactions of the Institute of British Geographers, 46 , 121- 42 .
[54] Piore, Michael, J. (1979). Birds of Passage. Migrant Labor and Industrial Societies. Cambridge University Press.
[55] Ravenstein, E. G. (1885). The laws of migration. Journal of the Royal Statistical Society, 48(2):167–227.
[56] Ravenstein, E. G. (1889). The laws of migration. Journal of the Royal Statistical Society, 52(2): 214–301.
[57] Raymer, J., Abel, G., and Smith, P. (2007). Combining census and registration data to estimate detailed elderly migration flows in England and Wales. Journal of the Royal Statistical Society, Series A, 170(4): 891–908.
[58] Raymer, J., and Rogers, A. (2007). Using age and spatial flow structures in the indirect estimation of migration streams. Demography, 44(2):199–223.
[59] Rees, P., Bell, M., Kupiszewski, M., Kupiszewska, D., Ueffing, P., Bernard, A. Charles-Edwards, E., and Stillwell, J. (2016). The Impact of Internal Migration on Population Redistribution: an International Comparison. Population, Space and Place.
[60] Samo, D., and Mitja, L. (2014). Which distance-decay function for migration and which one for commuting? A case study of Slovenia. Croatian Operational Research Review, 5:(2)
[61] Sen, A., and Smith,T.E. (1995). Gravity Models of Spatial Interaction Behavior, Heidelberg: Springer-Verlag.
[62] Simini, F., Gonzalez, M.C., Maritan, A., and Barabasi, A.L. (2012). A universal model for mobility and migration patterns. Nature, 484: 96–100
[63] Sjaadstad, L. (1962). The costs and returns of human migration. Journal of Political Economy 70: 80-93.
[64] Stark, O. (1991). The migration of labor. Cambridge: Basil Blackwell.
[65] Statistics Canada. Mobility and Migration Reference Guide, 2006 Census. Retreive from:
http://www12.statcan.ca/census-recensement/2006/ref/rp-guides/mobility-mobilite-eng.cfm
[66] Stewart, J.Q. (1941). An inverse distance variation for certain social influences. Science, 93(2404): 89–90.
[67] Stillwell, J.C.H., Bell,M., P. Ueffing, E. Charles-Edwards, M. Kupiszewski,
and D. Kupisewska. (2016). Internal migration around the world: Comparing distance travelled and its frictional effect. Environment and Planning A, 48 (8): 1657–75
[68] Stouffer, S.A. (1940). Intervening opportunities: A theory relating mobility and distance. American Sociological Review, 5:845-867
[69] Taylor, P.J. (1971). Distance transformation and distance decay function. Geographical Analysis, 3, 221–238.
[70] Taylor, P.J. (1983). Distance Decay in Spatial Interactions. CATMOG 2, Geo Books, Norwich.
[71] Taylor, E.J. (1992). Remittances and Inequality Reconsidered: Direct, Indirect, and Intertemporal Effects. Journal of Policy Modeling, 14:187-208
[72] Tiefelsdorf, M. (2003). Misspecifications in Interaction Model Distance Decay Relations: A Spatial Structure Effect. Journal of Geographical Systems, 5, 25–50.
[73] Todaro, M.P. (1969). A model of labor migration and urban unemployment in less-developed countries. American Economic Review, 59:138-148.
[74] United Nations. (2013). International Migration Report 2013
[75] United Nations. (1998). Recommendation on statistics of international migration. New York:United Nations.
[76] Willekens, F.J. (1999). Modeling approaches to the indirect estimation of migration flows: From entropy to EM. Mathematical Population Studies, 7(3):239-278.
[77] Wang, L., Wang, J.F., Xu, C., and Liu, T. (2016). Modelling input-output flows of severe acute respiratory syndrome in mainland China. BMC Public Health, 16:191
[78] Wallerstein, E. (1974). The Modern World System. Capitalist Agriculture and the Origins of the European World Economy in the 16-th Century. New York.: Academic Press.
[79] Wilson, A.G. (1971). A family of spatial interaction models, and associated developments. Environment and Planning, 3: 1–32
[80] Yano, K., Nakaya, T., Fotheringham, A.S., Openshaw, S., and Ishikawa, Y. (2003). A comparison of migration behavior in Japan and Britain using spatial interaction models. International Journal of Population Geography, 9: 419–431.
[81] Zipf, G.K. (1946). The P1 P2/D Hypothesis: On the Intercity Movement of Persons. American Sociological Review, 11(6):677–686 |
| Description: | 博士
國立政治大學
統計學系
100354501 |
| Source URI: | http://thesis.lib.nccu.edu.tw/record/#G0100354501 |
| Data Type: | thesis |
| Appears in Collections: | [統計學系] 學位論文
|
Files in This Item:
| File |
Size | Format | |
|---|
| index.html | 0Kb | HTML2 | 524 | View/Open |
|
All items in 政大典藏 are protected by copyright, with all rights reserved.
|
