政大機構典藏-National Chengchi University Institutional Repository(NCCUR):Item 140.119/110242
English  |  正體中文  |  简体中文  |  Post-Print筆數 : 27 |  全文笔数/总笔数 : 113303/144284 (79%)
造访人次 : 50804984      在线人数 : 821
RC Version 6.0 © Powered By DSPACE, MIT. Enhanced by NTU Library IR team.
搜寻范围 查询小技巧：
  • 您可在西文检索词汇前后加上"双引号"，以获取较精准的检索结果
  • 若欲以作者姓名搜寻，建议至进阶搜寻限定作者字段，可获得较完整数据
    •  进阶搜寻
    政大機構典藏 > 理學院 > 應用數學系 > 期刊論文 >  Item 140.119/110242


    请使用永久网址来引用或连结此文件: https://nccur.lib.nccu.edu.tw/handle/140.119/110242


    题名: Modeling chronic HBV infections with survival probability metrics
    作者: 陳政輝
    Chen, Jeng-Huei
    陸行
    Luh, Hsing Paul
    簡榮南
    Chien, Rong-Nan
    Chen, Shin-Yu
    贡献者: 應數系
    关键词: Markov chain;Disease progression;A life table;Mean hitting time;Survival probability
    日期: 2017-01
    上传时间: 2017-06-12 17:46:25 (UTC+8)
    摘要: Progressions of chronic diseases can be modeled as Markov processes. Frequently, the model parameters are concluded based on distinct short-term clinical studies because of the difficulty of observing the entire progression process in one clinical study. Though this piece-by-piece approach provides a global picture to the disease progression process, it could lead to unrealistic results under in-depth analysis. For instance, without careful calibration, patients’ life expectancy computed from the model might be longer than that of the general population. Such results usually arise from that the effect of population mortality is not sensible or not well included in these short-term clinical studies. For chronic diseases with which patients may experience a long chain of successive states, this inaccuracy is more obvious. Beck and Pauker propose that the population mortality may be integrated into a disease progression model in their work. Their method provides a solution to the aforementioned difficulty. However, their approach to integrate the population mortality into the model implicitly assumes that the population mortality solely affects the transition probabilities for transitions to the death state and for self-transitions remaining in the initial states. They do not explain why only these two types of transitions are affected by the imposed population mortality. From realistic situations, no matter what state transitions patients experience, they are all under the risk of death caused by population mortality. Based on this observation, a new modeling approach is proposed in this study. The proposed approach assumes that population mortality independently affects all state transitions of a Markov model. This extends Beck and Pauker’s idea and makes their method more reasonable.The proposed approach is applied to disease progression analysis of chronic hepatitis B virus (HBV) infection and considered for further applications. Specifically, with the natural history of chronic HBV infection originally described by a coarse Markov model a new model is developed by calibrating the coarse model with the proposed method. Numerical results show that the new model can obtain realistic estimates to patients’ life expectancy and survival probabilities. Meanwhile, the concept of first hitting time can find its interesting application in deriving the probabilities for patients’ first experiencing critical medical status during a specified duration. This delivers valuable information to chronic HBV patients. The model’s possible extensions such as its application to different countries and taking patients’ risk factors into account are also discussed for future study.
    關聯: Operations Research For Health Care, Volume 12, Pages 29–42
    数据类型: article
    DOI 連結: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.orhc.2017.01.001
    DOI: 10.1016/j.orhc.2017.01.001
    显示于类别:[應用數學系] 期刊論文

    文件中的档案:

    档案 描述 大小格式浏览次数
    2942.pdf1102KbAdobe PDF2604检视/开启


    在政大典藏中所有的数据项都受到原著作权保护.


    社群 sharing

    著作權政策宣告 Copyright Announcement
    1.本網站之數位內容為國立政治大學所收錄之機構典藏，無償提供學術研究與公眾教育等公益性使用，惟仍請適度，合理使用本網站之內容，以尊重著作權人之權益。商業上之利用，則請先取得著作權人之授權。
    The digital content of this website is part of National Chengchi University Institutional Repository. It provides free access to academic research and public education for non-commercial use. Please utilize it in a proper and reasonable manner and respect the rights of copyright owners. For commercial use, please obtain authorization from the copyright owner in advance.

    2.本網站之製作，已盡力防止侵害著作權人之權益，如仍發現本網站之數位內容有侵害著作權人權益情事者，請權利人通知本網站維護人員(nccur@nccu.edu.tw)，維護人員將立即採取移除該數位著作等補救措施。
    NCCU Institutional Repository is made to protect the interests of copyright owners. If you believe that any material on the website infringes copyright, please contact our staff(nccur@nccu.edu.tw). We will remove the work from the repository and investigate your claim.
    DSpace Software Copyright © 2002-2004  MIT &  Hewlett-Packard  /   Enhanced by   NTU Library IR team Copyright ©   - 回馈