English  |  正體中文  |  简体中文  |  Post-Print筆數 : 27 |  Items with full text/Total items : 113656/144643 (79%)
Visitors : 51714500      Online Users : 543
RC Version 6.0 © Powered By DSPACE, MIT. Enhanced by NTU Library IR team.
Scope Tips:
  • please add "double quotation mark" for query phrases to get precise results
  • please goto advance search for comprehansive author search
  • Adv. Search
    HomeLoginUploadHelpAboutAdminister Goto mobile version
    政大機構典藏 > 政大學報 > 第71期 > 期刊論文 >  Item 140.119/104715
    Please use this identifier to cite or link to this item: https://nccur.lib.nccu.edu.tw/handle/140.119/104715


    Title: 台灣地區出國觀光旅客需求預測模式之比較分析
    Other Titles: On Comparison of Forecasting Models for Outward Tourism Demand of Taiwan Area
    Authors: 鄭天澤;李旭煌
    Jeng, Tian-Tzer;Lee, Shiung-Hwang
    Contributors: 統計所
    Date: 1995-10
    Issue Date: 2016-12-09 10:25:04 (UTC+8)
    Abstract: 本文針對台灣地區出國觀光旅客整體及各主要市場需求,分別建立預測模式。我們考慮下列六種預測方法:簡算法、單變量時間序列模式、轉移函數模式、時間趨勢模式、指數平滑法以及計量經濟模式,除利用各類模式選取準則如AIC、SBC等來選取最適模式外,並以平均絕對百分誤差(MAPE)、根均方百分誤差(RMSPE)、方向變化誤差(Direction of Change Error)以及趨勢變化誤差(Trend Change Error)來評估各方法預測能力,從中選出最佳模式並進行預測整合分析。
    Relation: 國立政治大學學報,71,179-210
    Data Type: article
    Appears in Collections:[第71期] 期刊論文

    Files in This Item:

    File Description SizeFormat
    71-179-210.pdf1994KbAdobe PDF2692View/Open


    All items in 政大典藏 are protected by copyright, with all rights reserved.


    社群 sharing

    著作權政策宣告 Copyright Announcement
    1.本網站之數位內容為國立政治大學所收錄之機構典藏,無償提供學術研究與公眾教育等公益性使用,惟仍請適度,合理使用本網站之內容,以尊重著作權人之權益。商業上之利用,則請先取得著作權人之授權。
    The digital content of this website is part of National Chengchi University Institutional Repository. It provides free access to academic research and public education for non-commercial use. Please utilize it in a proper and reasonable manner and respect the rights of copyright owners. For commercial use, please obtain authorization from the copyright owner in advance.

    2.本網站之製作,已盡力防止侵害著作權人之權益,如仍發現本網站之數位內容有侵害著作權人權益情事者,請權利人通知本網站維護人員(nccur@nccu.edu.tw),維護人員將立即採取移除該數位著作等補救措施。
    NCCU Institutional Repository is made to protect the interests of copyright owners. If you believe that any material on the website infringes copyright, please contact our staff(nccur@nccu.edu.tw). We will remove the work from the repository and investigate your claim.
    DSpace Software Copyright © 2002-2004  MIT &  Hewlett-Packard  /   Enhanced by   NTU Library IR team Copyright ©   - Feedback