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    Please use this identifier to cite or link to this item: https://nccur.lib.nccu.edu.tw/handle/140.119/104593


    Title: 開發中國家外債需求問題之研究
    Authors: 陳香椿
    Contributors: 曹益榔
    陳香椿
    Date: 1984
    Issue Date: 2016-12-06 17:08:49 (UTC+8)
    Abstract: 論文內容提要
    本文主要探討一國外債累積至何種程度才不會發生償還困難的問題，使外債幫助一國經濟發展，融通暫時性的收支赤字，而非一國沈重的負擔。
    關於研究目的有三：第一，有系統地整理有關外債需求的文獻，有助於全盤了解外債需求的問題。第二，試論從理論來說明現實外債問題中許多現象及爭論點。第三，許多外債需求實證多是以許多國家為研究對象，所得的係數是否穩定值得再測試，故本文擬以台灣為單一研究對象，比較台灣實證結果是否與理論相一致，並探討其經濟意義。
    理論部份除了作有系統的整理之外，特地提出某些學者重要的結論用以說明外債問題所存在的現象與爭論點，並尋找實際的統計資料以驗證之。
    有關台灣的實證分析為外債需求及償債能力評估，採用迴歸分析以普通最小平方法估計之。資料來源取自世界銀行的Wbrld Debt Tables及Borrowing In International and Capital Markets，以及中央銀行所編的中華民國台灣地區 Balance of Payments以及行政院主計處所編中華民國國民所得按季估計和國民經濟動向統計季報，和Taiwan Statistical Yearbook。外債需求模型參考Jonathan Eaton & Mark Gersovitz的模型，使用年資料，而償債能力評估則採用Sebastian Edwards的模型，側重半年資料。
    本研究獲得結論如下：
    1.台灣外債需求主要受實質所得成長率，每人所得、人口等因素的影響，與出口變動無關或為負的關係且與進口傾向無關，且與外滙準備為正的關係，可見台灣非以外債為融通經常帳赤字的主要工具，而是外滙準備。
    2.國際銀行決定台灣的加碼主要受台灣的償付比率、進口傾向、（外滙準備/GNP）、（外債累積/ GNP）的影響。
    3.台灣1976 ~ 1980年無法履行債務的機率與Sebastion Edwards的樣本國作比較，發現台灣大致上在1976年以後，無法履行債務的機率較大部份樣本國來得低，可見1976年以後，台灣債信良好，至於1976年以前，台灣債信水準是否較其他國家好，則須再測試。
    4.今後全開發中國家外債問題的解決，有賴世界各國在經濟方面共同合作來解決。尤須強調世界經濟最需要的是產出與貿易長期的穩定成長和緩慢的通貨膨脹率，以避免另一次嚴重的世界經濟衰退，使債務問題再度脅國際金融秩序。
    序言 壹
    圖表目次 肆
    第一章 緒論1
    第一節 研究問題與目的1
    第二節 研究的方法3
    第三節 本文的結構4
    第二章 影響外債需求的原因6
    第一節 經濟成長7
    1.外債週期理論 7
    2.非最適化新古典成長模型9
    3.最適控制模型10
    第二節 融通經常帳赤字13
    第三節 信用供給的限制21
    第三章 償債能力的評估27
    第一節 償還困難的原因27
    1.投資效益小於借款成本27
    2.流動性不足29
    第二節 償債能力的評估37
    1.經濟指標37
    2.評估方法41
    第四章 台灣的實證分析55
    第一節 台灣向外借款情形56
    第二節 中長期公共外債需求實證分析59
    第三節 償債能力評估67
    第五章 結論80
    參考書目86
    圖表目次
    表一 1973 ~ 1981非OPEC開發中國家經常帳赤字的融資15
    表二 1970 ~ 1978開發中國家中期及長期外債累積25
    表三 1982年二十個主要開發中借款國的外債總額26
    表四 1972 ~ 1978開發中國家名目與實質外債累積32
    表五 1973 ~ 1982開發中非產油國的中長期外債來源及其償付比率及外債與 GDP比率33
    表六 1971 ~ 1981開發中國家延期償還債務狀況34
    表七 1972 ~ 1977非產油開發中國家貿易帳餘額的原因35
    表八 變更表七後的結果36
    表九 顯示償債能力的經濟指標分類38
    表十 1967 ~ 1982台灣外債需求增減的情形與增減因素57
    表十一 1967 ~ 1982台灣各種借款來源的未償還公共外債累積58
    表十二 台灣 1967 ~ 1982年中長期公共外債累積及出口值標準差等變數的數值64
    表十三 台灣中長期公共外債需求模型65
    表十四 Sebastian Edwards所求出的加碼模型71
    表十五 1973 ~ 1982台灣償債能力評估模型的自變數統計資料72
    表十六 台灣加碼模型：應變數為加碼74
    表十七 Sebastian Edwards所估計的樣本國無法履行債務的機率及台灣1973 ~ 1 982年無法履行債務的機率表76
    表十八 台灣加碼模型中各變數間的相關表79
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    二、中文部份
    「開發中國家的對外債務--其特徵與原因」，中國商銀月判，台北：中國國際商業銀行經濟研究處出版，民國七十二年八月：頁1-16 .
    史怡中著，「國際銀行貸款對開發中國家融資之分析」北市銀月判162期，台北：北市銀行出版，民國七十二年三月：頁59-67 .
    尚之著「開發中國家的外債問題」太平洋經濟23.卷5號，東京：太平洋經濟文化企業株式會社出版，1983：頁20.-30。
    「世界債務問題的評估與長期對策」，國際經濟情勢週報491期，台北：行政院經濟建設委員會經濟研究處出版，民國七十二年七月，頁4-18。
    Harold van B. Cleveland and W. H. Brue Brittain ("Are the LDCs in Over their Heads?" Foreign Affairs, Vol. 55, No. 4 (July 1977), PP. 732-750.)，吳永叔譯，「近年非產油開發中國家外債激增問題的探討」台灣經濟金融月刊13卷8期，台北：台灣銀行經濟研究處出版，民國六十六年8月，頁11-19。
    L. S. Goodman ("The Pricing of Syndicated Eurocuuency Credits, " Federal Reserve Bank of New York Quarterly Review, Sum. 1981) , 謝秀鳳譯，「歐洲通貨聯合貸款之計價方式」，國際金融參考資料7輯，台北：中央銀行經濟研究處編撰，民國六十九年十二月，頁121–131。
    David Roberts ( " The LDC Debt Burden ," Federal Reserve Bank of New York Quarterly Review , Spring , 198 )，謝秀鳳譯，「開發中國家之債務負擔」，國際金融參考資料11輯，台北：中央銀行經濟研究處編撰，民國七十一年四月，頁：93-107。
    Relation: 國立政治大學
    國際貿易研究所
    碩士
    72
    Data Type: thesis
    Appears in Collections:[國際經營與貿易學系 ] 學位論文

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