政大機構典藏-National Chengchi University Institutional Repository(NCCUR):Item 140.119/104480
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    政大典藏 > Journal of NCCU > Issue 58 > Journal Articles >  Item 140.119/104480


    Please use this identifier to cite or link to this item: https://nccur.lib.nccu.edu.tw/handle/140.119/104480


    Title: Forecasting Housing Investment: A Comparative Study in Taiwan (R.O.C.),Korea, Japan and U.S.A.
    Authors: 張金鶚
    Chang, Chih-on
    Contributors: 地政系
    Date: 1988-12
    Issue Date: 2016-12-05 14:54:19 (UTC+8)
    Abstract: 本文以住宅投資為研究對象，探討各種預測模型：從簡單的時間序列趨勢模型(TrendModel)到複雜的自我迴歸移動平均模型(AR-MA Model)，另外亦利用解釋模型進行預測分析。本文以中華民國、韓國、日本及美國等四國從1953到1983年三十一年間的住宅投資資料作分析比較各種預測模型的精確程度。在預測精確度及便利性的考慮下，建議ARMA模型較為適當進行預測分析。最後本文亦測試了不同國家預測模型的轉換運用情形，發現在有限資料的情況下，類似背景不同國家模型之轉換可以嘗試。
    Relation: 國立政治大學學報, 58,81-112
    Data Type: article
    Appears in Collections:[Issue 58] Journal Articles

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