政大機構典藏-National Chengchi University Institutional Repository(NCCUR):Item 140.119/103816

English | 正體中文 | 简体中文 | Post-Print筆數 : 27 | 全文筆數/總筆數 : 113648/144635 (79%)
造訪人次 : 51590255 線上人數 : 757

RC Version 6.0 © Powered By DSPACE, MIT. Enhanced by NTU Library IR team.

政大機構典藏 > 學術期刊 > Issues & Studies > 期刊論文 > Item 140.119/103816

請使用永久網址來引用或連結此文件: https://nccur.lib.nccu.edu.tw/handle/140.119/103816

題名:	A Simple Model for Predicting the Outcome of the 2008 Legislative Yuan Elections in Taiwan
作者:	Wu, Chung-Li
關鍵詞:	election forecast;party voting;voter choice;electoral system;prediction accuracy
日期:	2008.12
上傳時間:	2016-11-11 14:13:15 (UTC+8)
摘要:	The 2008 Legislative Yuan elections in Taiwan were held under a new electoral system, a combination of single-member districts with a plurality system, the national nonpreferential list proportional representation system, and the single nontransferable vote system for the aboriginal districts. This work develops a forecasting model and hypothesizes that the partisan voting behavior of Taiwan`s citizens largely remains identifiable and durable. There are two methodologies used in this study. The first is the use of three-wave aggregate-level electoral data to estimate the out-comes of the 2008 legislative elections, The second employs ordinary least squares (OLS) estimations to evaluate the effects of previous three-wave electoral results on the 2008 elections. Using the first method, the forecast success rate is more than 80 percent. The findings also reveal that the OLS model performs satisfactorily because two of the three coefficients reach statistical significance, This study concludes by listing three implications of the election: that it was a critical watershed in Taiwan`s politics, that there is a geopolitical gap between the north and south, and that minor political parties were eliminated from Taiwan politics.
關聯:	Issues & Studies,44(4),1-28
資料類型:	article
顯示於類別:	[Issues & Studies] 期刊論文

文件中的檔案:

檔案	描述	大小	格式	瀏覽次數
44(4)-1-28.pdf		912Kb	Adobe PDF2	551	檢視/開啟

在政大典藏中所有的資料項目都受到原著作權保護.

社群 sharing

著作權政策宣告 Copyright Announcement

1.本網站之數位內容為國立政治大學所收錄之機構典藏，無償提供學術研究與公眾教育等公益性使用，惟仍請適度，合理使用本網站之內容，以尊重著作權人之權益。商業上之利用，則請先取得著作權人之授權。
The digital content of this website is part of National Chengchi University Institutional Repository. It provides free access to academic research and public education for non-commercial use. Please utilize it in a proper and reasonable manner and respect the rights of copyright owners. For commercial use, please obtain authorization from the copyright owner in advance.

2.本網站之製作，已盡力防止侵害著作權人之權益，如仍發現本網站之數位內容有侵害著作權人權益情事者，請權利人通知本網站維護人員(nccur@nccu.edu.tw)，維護人員將立即採取移除該數位著作等補救措施。
NCCU Institutional Repository is made to protect the interests of copyright owners. If you believe that any material on the website infringes copyright, please contact our staff(nccur@nccu.edu.tw). We will remove the work from the repository and investigate your claim.

資料載入中.....