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    Title: 我國賦稅收入廻歸分析之研究
    Authors: 凌忠嫄
    Contributors: 徐偉初
    凌忠嫄
    Date: 1984
    Issue Date: 2016-11-09 17:12:02 (UTC+8)
    Abstract: 提要
    賦稅收入是國家收入的主要來源,也是政府決策單位釐訂各項政策的重要依據,因此賦稅收入之研究甚具價值。本文嚐試建立一個計量經濟模式,考慮與賦稅收入較密切的一些經濟變數,以求得具有代表性的關係式,探討各經濟變數對賦稅收入的影響力,透過本文研究所建立之賦稅收入迴歸分析模型,期能對政府籌編預算及釐訂政策時提供參考。
    本研究除探討我國過去對賦稅收入研究之有關文獻外,並就現行稅制下,嚐試以迴歸分析為工具,建立一個適合於我國的稅收迴歸模型,並提出綜合性討論及建議,全文計分五章,茲將各章內容分述如下:
    第一章為緒論,首揭本文研究之、動機、目的、研究範圍及架構。
    第二章為文獻探討及我國賦稅收入結構分析,除了對國內過去有關之文獻作一評述外,並就我國賦稅收入結構分析各稅之比重,以期顯示是否達成租稅公平及所得重分配之目標。
    第三章為方法論及資料來源,簡要介紹本文所使用的方法--迴歸分析及各項統計資料來源。
    第四章為本文重點所在,利用迴歸分析最小平方法,以本校Prime750系統及SHAZAM套裝程式為工具,就現行稅法規定,並考慮我國財經制度的特質,選擇各項稅收的決定因素,就反覆試驗結果,選取最佳之迴歸式。此外,另使用SUR (Seemingly Unrelated Regression) 方法從事迴歸分析,並與最小平方法之迴歸結果加以比較分析,得知利用SUR從事迴歸分析可以獲致一個更佳的迴歸模型。
    第五章為結論,說明本文的研究成果及所遭遇的困難,在各項經濟變數資料可以獲得的情況下,利用此迴歸模型可以從事各項稅收之預測。
    謝辭 壹
    圖表目次 肆
    第一章 緒論1
    第一節 研究動機及目的1
    第二節 研究範圍及架構3
    第二章 文獻探討及我國賦稅收入結構分析6
    第一節 國內文獻評述6
    第二節 我國賦稅收入結構分析10
    第三章 方法論及資料來源22
    第一節 方法論22
    第二節 資料來源28
    第四章 我國賦稅收入迴歸分析32
    第一節 我國主要各稅收入的決定因素32
    第二節 SUR及OLS 結果之比較分析50
    第五章 結論59
    參考書目61
    附錄70
    作者簡歷72

    圖表目次

    1. 研究架構圖5

    1.國庫收入--按國際貨幣基金分類2
    2.歷年全國賦稅收入按稅類別比較14
    3.我國的賦稅收入結構15
    4.迴歸模型各變數間組合關係表54
    5.SUR及OLS稅收迴歸分析模型之比較55
    Reference: 中文部分:
    1.江振南著,「政府財政收入之預測」,經濟論文第一卷第一期,民國六十二年三月:頁143-165。
    2.林華德著,「台灣賦稅的月收入試析」,財稅研究第十二卷第五期,民國六十九年九月:頁16-35。
    3. ________「台灣賦稅收入的預測」,台大經濟論文叢刊,民國六十七年十一月:頁41-90。
    4.林振國、林華德合著,「關稅稅收之預測」,稅制會六十五年專題研究報告(五)。
    5.李慶泉著,「我國稅收估測方法之研究」,稅務旬刊第895期,民國六十五年八月:頁3-6及第896期,民國六十五年八月:頁6-10。
    6.李川源著,「台灣地區所得稅收之預測」,交通大學管理科學研究所碩士論文,民國六十八年。
    7.吳家恩著,「租稅征收落後問題之研究」,政治大學財政研究所碩士論文,民國七十二年。
    8.張慶輝著,「營利事業所得稅之轉嫁問題」,財稅研究第十四卷第四期,民國七十一年七月:頁10-21。
    9.陶百川編,「最新六法全書」,台北:三民書局,國七十年九月。
    10.蔡招榮著,「台灣財產稅月稅收預測--隨機時間序列分析之應用」,交通大學管理科學研究所碩士論文民國六十八年。
    11.魏宗參著,「台灣消費稅收之短期預測」,交通大學管理科學研究所碩士論文,民國六十八年。
    12.鍾世保著,「我國賦稅收入短期預測之研究」,中國統計學報第十四卷第三期,民國六十五年八月:頁5313-5328。
    13.________,「我國賦稅收入半年預測模型之研究」,中國統計學報第十五卷第四期,民國六十六年十一月:頁5745-5760。
    英文部分:
    1. Ando A., E Cary Brown and Earl W. Adams, Jr. “Government Revenues and Expenditures. ” in The Brookings Quarterly Econometric Model of The United States. Edited by J. S. Duesenberry, G. Fromm, L. R. Klein and E. Kuh. Chicago: Rand McNally & Company (1965):533-585.
    2. Bennett, James P. and Bruce R. Riggs.“Forecasting Receipts From the Federal Individual Income Tax. ” National Tax Journal (December 1968) :425-436.
    3. Buchanan, James M. and Dwight R. Lee. “Tax Rate and Tax Revenues in Political Equilibrium: Some Simple Analysis. ” Econ. Inquiry 20(3) (July 1982) :344-54.
    4. Buchanan, Shepard C. and Bruce A. Weber. “Growth and Residential Property Taxes: A Model for Estimating Direct and Indirect Population Impacts. ” Land Economics 58(3) (August 1982):324-37.
    5. Byrnes, James C., Gerald F. Donahoe, Mary W. Hook and Robert P. Parker. “Monthly Estimates of Personal Income Taxes and Outlays. ” Surrey of Current Business 59(11)(November 1979): 18-38.
    6. Carlson, Keith M. “Trends in Federal Revenues :1955-86. ” Federal Reserve Bank st. Louis Review 63(5)(May 1981):31-39.
    7. Chamber, John C., Mullicks K. Mullick and Donald D. Smith. “How to Choose the Right Forecasting Technique.” Harvard Business Review (July-Aug 1971):45-89.
    8. Chang, Semoon. “Municipal Revenues Forecasting. ” Growth and Change 10(4) (October 1979): 38-46.
    9. Cochrane, D. and G. H. Orcutt. “Application of Least Squares Regressions to Relationships Containing Autocorrelated Error Terms. ” Journal of the American Statistical Association Vol. 44 (March 1949):32-61.
    10. Freg, Bruno S. and Friedrich Schneider. “A Political-economic Model of the United Kingdon.” Economic Journal Vol. 88(1978):243-53.
    11.________, “A Political-economic Model of the U.K. : New Estimates and Predictions. ”Econonic Journal Vol. 91(1981): 737-40.
    12. Harberger, Arnold C. “The Incidence of the Corporation Income Tax. ” Journal of Political Economy Lxx (June 1962):215-40.
    13. Hinrichs, Harl H. “Determinants of Government Revenue Share Among Less Developed Countries. ” The Economic Journal Vol. 75(1965):546-56.
    14. Kmenta, Jan. Elements of Econometrics. New York: Macmilla 1971.
    15. Krzyzaniak, Marian and R.A. Musgrave. The Shifting of the Corporation Income Tax. Baltimore: John Hopkins Univ. Press, 1963.
    16. Longo, Carlos A. “A note on Local Tax Revenues: The Case of Brazilian Municipalities. ” Pulbic Finance Quarterly 9(3)(July 1981): 343-52.
    17. Mclaren, Alec J: ”An Income Tax Simulation Model For the State of Minnesota. ” National Tax Journal Vol. 26(1973):71-77.
    18. Mikesell, John L. “The Structure of State Revenue Administration. ” National Tax Journal 34(2)(June 1981):217-34.
    19. Norman, Morris and Robert Rusell. “A Personal Income Tax Simulation Model Wth an Application to the State of Hawaii.” National Tax Journal(1970):429-34.
    20. Peacock, Alan “Model Building and Fiscal Policy: Then and Now.” Finanzarchir 39(1) (1981) :43-52.
    21. Rao, Govinda M. “Ideological Factors, Political Stability and Tax Revenue Determination-A Case Study of Four States in Indian Federation. ”Public Finance 34(1)(1979):114-28.
    22. Reaume, David M. “ Forecaoting State Income Tax Collections. A New Approach” Public Finance Quarterly Vol. 6 (Jan. 1978):67-91.
    23. Rooy, De Jacob. “Local Taxes and Personal Income. :An Impact Analysis.” Public Finance Quarterly 10(4)(October 1982):457-78.
    24. Sen, Tapas Kumar. “Empirical Test of Tax Implications in Williamson Model: A Suggested Approach.” Public Finance 34(3)(1979):384-94.
    25. Singer, Neil M. “The Use of Dummy Variables in Estimating the Income Elasticity of State Income Tax Revenue.” National Tax Journal ( June 1968):200-204.
    26. ________ . “Estimating State Income Tax Revenues: A New Approach.” Review of Economics & Statistics (November 1970):427-33.
    27. Snickars, F. and. Granholm A. “A Multiregional Planning and Forecasting Model With Special Regard to the Public Sector.” Regional Science and Urban Economics 11(3) (1981):377-404.
    28. Suits, Daniel B. “Forecasting and Analysis With an Ecnometric Model. “ The American Economic Review (March 1962):104-132.
    29. Taubman, Paul. “Econometric Functions for Government Receipts.” in The Brookings Model: Sone Further Results. Edited by J. S. Duesenberry, G. Fromm, L. R. Klein and E. Kuh. Chicago: Rand McNally & Company (196G9):187-220.
    30. Werber, William C. “The Size Determination of Income in an Income Tax Revenue Forecasting Model. Public Finance Quarterly 7(2) (April 1979):182-98.
    31. Wilford, Sykes D. & Wilford T. Walton. “Comment on” Mexican Fiscal Revenue Performance 1950-77: A Revisit.” Public Finance 34(1) (1979) :134-37.
    32. Williamson, Jeffrey G. “Public Expenditure and Revenue: An International Comparison..” The Manchester School of Economics and Social Studies. Vol. XXIX(1961):43-57.
    33. White, K. J. SHAZAM-An Econometrics Computer Program-User’s Manual. 1983.
    34. Zellner, Arnold. “An Efficient Method of Estimating Seemingly Unrelated Regressions and Tests for Aggregation Bias.” Journal of American Statistical Association (June 1962) :348-68.
    Relation: 國立政治大學
    財政研究所
    碩士
    72
    Data Type: thesis
    Appears in Collections:[財政學系] 學位論文

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